Developments in Greek politics in the last month brought a reshuffle in parliament as main opposition Syriza lost several MPs, ushering back the New Democracy-PASOK dipole.
The leftist party disintegration amidst leadership feuds and the Stefanos Kasselakis ousting saw several MPs leaving Syriza, allowing PASOK to rise to the main opposition post in the Greek Parliament.
Since the July 2019 national election, when Greece’s first leftist government lost its chance to govern for a second term, conservative New Democracy under Kyriakos Mitsotakis won two consecutive national elections with a comfortable margin.
The Syriza turmoil of the last few months gave the socialist party second place in representation in the Greek Parliament. This means that the old dipole New Democracy-PASOK that emerged after the restoration of democracy in Greece in 1974 returns for yet another bout half a century later.
After a few years’ intermission due to the Greek political upheavals caused by the economic crisis and the expensive bailout program, the two arch-rival parties are about to fight again for the precious vote in the 2027 national election.
The last time New Democracy and PASOK fought for Greece’s governance was in October 2009, when the socialist party led by Andreas Papandreou’s son, George Papandreou, beat Prime Minister Constantinos Karamanlis after a snap election.
Syriza splits in three
What happened in Greek politics in the January 2015 national election was unexpected by most: a party called “Radical Left Coalition” (the SYRIZA acronym) led by Alexis Tsipras won the majority of the vote and formed government allying with a right wing party called Independent Greeks (ANEL).
Tsipras won the public vote promising that he will lead Greece out of austerity and erase public debt. He was the youngest politician that became prime minister, the young blood that gave a glimpse of hope to a constituency that was suffering from the economic crisis.
However, the promises did not materialize and four years later Syriza lost the election to New Democracy in the July 2019 national election. As the main opposition party, Syriza lost again in the May 2023 polls and Tsipras resigned from the party presidency.
In late August 2023, another young man with no leftist credentials, Stefanos Kasselakis, a successful businessman in the United States, joined Syriza and with a short campaign won the race for the party leadership. His motto was “I am the only one who can beat Mitsotakis“.
Several Syriza MPs left the party in protest and formed Nea Aristera (New Left). In the months with Kasselakis at the helm, more and more party MPs along with the leftist Press started doubting the new leader’s abilities to bring the changes promised. More so, some believed that Kasselakis was an agent planted in Greek politics to disband the party. The Syriza hard leftists pushed for election for a new Syriza president.
By early November Kasselakis’ opponents managed to ban him from candidate in the party leadership election. This time, several more Syriza MPs left the party in protest and joined Kasselakis who formed Kinima Dimokratias (Democracy Movement).
As the number of Syriza MPs shrank even more, the party lost its power in parliament and PASOK found itself with more MPs, therefore becoming the main opposition.
Is the New Democracy-PASOK dipole same as it was?
The 2024 dipole is not going to resurrect the two-party system as Greeks remember it in the 1980s, 1990s or 2000s. New Democracy had won the 1974 and 1977 national elections. PASOK was the winner in 1981 and 1985. New Democracy won again in 1989. In 1993 PASOK returned to power and won again in 1996 and 2000. New Democracy came to the helm in 2004 and 2007. PASOK was the winner in 2009 and after that the economic crisis led to several temporary administrations.
From the 1980s through the 2000s, the European Union gave substantial subsidies to Greece with the administrations creating an environment of affluence, that soon proved to be a bubble.
The Stock Market Crash in the United States in 2008 swept economies throughout the World, causing political upheavals. From 2009 and on, Greek politics changed drastically, as politics around the globe changed.
In 2012, for the first time, the arch rivals of Greek politics formed a New Democracy-PASOK coalition government with ND leader Antonis Samaras in the prime minister seat. This “unholy alliance”, as some hardcore members of the two parties had called it then, did not manage to fight against the gigantic public debt that brought Greek society to its knees.
A great number of voters of both parties moved on, or rather, shifted to the Left or to the Right.
Today, many of the conservative party voters have steered to the Far Right, disappointed by the concessions the Mitsotakis administration is making to the migrant influx and the Woke agenda, while the cost of living in Greece is prohibitive to most Greeks.
While PASOK leader Nikos Androulakis is moving closer to the Center, New Democracy is doing the same, despite the fact that a significant number of loyal conservative voters started to doubt the ruling party’s patriotism and intentions.
A corresponding percentage of PASOK and Syriza moved to the left of the spectrum, but without a dominant political personality or party formation.
PASOK: Unorthodox comeback and ambitions
PASOK is making a comeback in a way that could make a good political thriller. It is definitely a success for a party that since 2015 remained in low percentage figures, reaching low double digits in the last national election. It is a success that did not result from an electoral process.
The unorthodox way in which PASOK has recovered, in addition to gaining additional motivation, reflects the point at which Greek politics are right now: Polls show that New Democracy has lost 13 percentage points since the 2023 election but Mitsotakis is still “best-suited for prime minister.”
As things stand today, the two parties that will clash for power in the 2027 election are not playing on equal terms: ND has more than five years of governance, with all that this implies in terms of experience and management of the state resources, while PASOK does not have a large fund for the campaign, has many MPs without experience in government and needs time to be able to say that it is ready for the next step; that is to claim Greece’s governance.
The once strong power dipole of Greek politics currently has a stronger and a weaker pole, but the time gap from the polls almost presupposes that the conditions under which the next election will be held will be different. What has changed? ND now has an opponent that appears to be gaining momentum and appeals to the center-left voters.
The PASOK leader has the advantage that voters disappointed by Syriza will likely steer towards his party, definitely not towards New Democracy. Now that the minimized Syriza tries to grasp at the hard leftists, the moderate ones are more likely to turn to PASOK as a solution.
At a time when the field to the right of the Right is open, Mitsotakis has two poles to worry about: the moderate leftists and the ultra-conservative voters who see the homeland-religion-family triptych threatened while the broader left space, due to fragmentation, remains open.
Eyes on the 2027 election
PM Mitsotakis met with PASOK leader Nikos Androulakis for talks on December 4. Everyone was wondering what will the two men discuss. Given ND’s substantial drop in polls it will be no big surprise if in 2027 we see a 2012 repeat: An ND-PASOK coalition government. The question is who will be prime minister this time. It will be a while until this question arises.
In the best case scenario, the new two-party system of governance will not be high, given that right now the number of parties represented in parliament approaches two digits. This is a crucial factor for the formation of a strong two-party government. But what if one of the two wishes to govern with his right or with his left? And how easy and politically manageable will it be in a world of enormous uncertainties and crises.
Androulakis has already announced that he will approach both, the disappointed center-leftists and the disappointed center-rightists. His rhetoric and manner of addressing people is moderate, almost never falling to the trap of using populist slogans. He has also announced that there is no way that he will ever collaborate with New Democracy. But such promises in Greek politics usually mean the opposite.