LAS VEGAS (AP) — The Western Conference is so loaded that its championship might be the real NBA Finals, at least if all the betting money pouring in on those teams is any indication.
Of the top seven potential NBA champions that would be bad financial news for BetMGM Sportsbook, six reside in the West. Miami, at 200-1 odds, is the lone Eastern Conference team that the book would not be pleased see hold up the Larry O’Brien Trophy.
“Seemingly, we’re just going to be cheering for whoever comes out of the East,” said Halvor Egeland, BetMGM trading strategy manager.
Western Conference teams have won three of the past four championships, with Boston in 2024 the exception.
The top two favorites at BetMGM are defending champion Oklahoma City (+240) and 2023 champ Denver (+550). Eastern Conference teams Cleveland (+750) and New York (9-1) are next.
“Obviously, the Knicks, if they make a big run, our liability grows,” Egeland said. “But as of now, they’re actually one of our best results. Like always, we’re expecting the Lakers to be a big liability. We’re expecting the Warriors to be up there. We usually take a lot of Nuggets money. We’re live in Colorado, and personally, I think they’re going to be a very good team as well.”
Caesars Sportsbook is seeing that same kind of trends.
“The Nuggets, obviously with their offseason, they took some heavy action early,” said David Lieberman, Caesars’ NBA sports lead. “The Warriors and Lakers are pretty always two of our biggest liabilities. Just popular teams for people to bet on.”
CBS SportsLine handicapper Bruce Marshall said he expects this NBA season to end like last season.
“I think Oklahoma City’s clearly the team to beat,” Marshall said. “They’ve got good depth and even with a couple of front line injuries, they can get over them. They’re wearing a bigger target this year. I think they’re going to be much the same as a year ago.”
The Thunder’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the reigning MVP and is the favorite at BetMGM at +260 to capture the award again.
Denver’s Nikola Jokic and the Los Angeles Lakers’ Luka Doncic are next at each 3-1. Jokic is a three-time MVP. Doncic has never received the award, but he figures to be the focus of LA’s offense, especially with LeBron James missing the first part of the season because of sciatica.
Voters tend to prefer to give the benefit of the doubt on close races to those who haven’t won the award recently or at all.
“That’s always the thing with awards,” Egeland said. “It doesn’t necessarily go to who had the best season. You have to price it as if you’re going for who’s going to be voting. That’s why I like Jokic. I think he should’ve won last year.”
Jokic is the favorite at Caesars.
“I personally think Jokic should be the favorite,” Lieberman said. “I think there’s an argument he probably should’ve won last year, but I do think SGA was deserving of it. They had such a good year, I had no issue with him winning, but I think there’s kind of a prevailing thought that he won because the team’s record was so good.”
Handicapping the win totals
Marshall said he liked Orlando (50 1/2), Indiana (37 1/2), Miami (37 1/2) and Charlotte (26 1/2) to go over the win totals.
The Magic were particularly intriguing to him.
“I think this is the team that might be ready to take off,” Marshall said. “They had a lot of injury problems last year. … They still made the playoffs.”
He was more bearish on Boston (41 1/2), Philadelphia (42 1/2) and Memphis (39 1/2), expecting those team to go under. Marshall said health concerns were an issue for all three clubs.
The Lakers are 16-1 to win the championship and the crosstown Clippers are at 18-1.
Both teams face their share of questions.
For the Lakers, it James’ health as well as whether this will be his final season. The NBA is investigating whether the Clippers violated the salary cap regarding an endorsement deal for Kawhi Leonard.
“I think the biggest X-factor is the Clippers, even more than the Lakers, because of Kawhi,” Marshall said. “His availability, you never know about that. … This off-court thing with Kawhi’s contract, will that be a distraction? I don’t know.
“The Lakers, you can sense change coming. I’m almost convinced this is it for LeBron. Maybe Luka is primed for an MVP season, but that was no fluke when Minnesota beat them (in the playoffs) last year. They just out-athleted them everywhere.”
Dallas’ Cooper Flagg, the top pick in this year’s draft, is the clear favorite for Rookie of the Year. BetMGM even lists him in minus territory at -225.
The closest are Utah’s Ace Bailey and Philadelphia’s V.J. Edgecombe, each at 10-1.
While acknowledging Flagg deserves to be the favorite, Marshall also tempered expectations.
“I’m not really sure how much of an impact Flagg is really going to make,” Marshall said. “I think Dallas is not a threat this year. I just don’t see it with them, and I don’t think Flagg is going to be the superstar everybody thinks.”