2026 could be a massive year for the box office, as several films have the potential to earn $1 billion worldwide. 2025 had many highlights at the box office, including A Minecraft Movie, Superman, and Jurassic World Rebirth. However, only three movies have passed the $1 billion mark in 2025 so far.
The live-action Lilo & Stitch and Zootopia 2 crossed $1 billion for Disney, and Ne Zha 2 broke box office records, earning over $2 billion worldwide. Avatar: Fire and Ash could also earn $1 billion during its run, giving 2025 four billion-dollar films. Fortunately, 2026 has a strong chance at beating that total.
2026 features new films from many popular franchises, including Star Wars, Marvel, and Toy Story, as well as blockbusters from acclaimed filmmakers like Christopher Nolan and Denis Villeneuve. Grossing $1 billion is possible for many of these films, but their chances vary. Here are 10 2026 films with the best chances to make $1 billion, ranked by likelihood.
10
Dune: Part 3 – 25%
Dune: Part 3 is the third chapter in Villeneuve’s trilogy, chronicling Paul Atreides’ rise to power on the planet Arrakis. The first two films are outstanding adaptations of Frank Herbert’s 1965 sci-fi novel, merging masterful filmmaking with visual spectacle. After the success of the second film, the third entry could be an even bigger hit.
2021’s Dune grossed $429.5 million worldwide, despite premiering on streaming the same day it hit theaters. The 2023 sequel, Dune: Part 2, performed much better as a theatrical exclusive, earning $714.8 million. While the third film should build on the franchise’s momentum, it likely will fall short of the $1 billion mark.
The Dune films are well-received by critics and audiences, but Dune: Messiah, the book the upcoming third film is based on, takes the franchise in many odd and dark directions. Villenueve will likely make changes to make it more digestible, but it may not be an action spectacle that appeals to a broad audience.
Still, the first two films also feature complex mythology and bleak themes, and managed to strike a chord with audiences, leading to box office success. There may be enough of an audience to drive Dune: Part 3‘s box office earnings, especially those who want to see it in the best format possible.
9
Minions 3 – 30%
2010’s Despicable Me kicked off the highest-grossing animated franchise of all time, which has grossed $5.6 billion worldwide. While Gru and his family are the heart of the franchise, the Minions have become global icons, receiving their own spinoff films that are also box office triumphs.
So far, two films in the series have made over $1 billion: 2015’s Minions and 2017’s Despicable Me 3. While the little, yellow troublemakers remain popular, their films are showing a small decline at the box office. Minions: The Rise of Gru and Despicable Me 4 made over $900 million worldwide, but fell short of the billion-dollar mark.
Minions 3 will likely still be a hit, especially with younger audiences, making enough to justify another adventure with these characters. However, it may fall short of $1 billion based on how the last two films performed.
8
Michael – 38%
Musical biopics have been a mixed bag at the box office. Bohemian Rhapsody set a high bar for the sub-genre’s potential, grossing $910 billion worldwide. However, other musical biopics haven’t reached that high note. Elvis and A Complete Unknown performed well, but others, such as Better Man and Deliver Me From Nowhere didn’t draw enough interest.
Michael‘s biggest strength is its subject matter. Michael Jackson is one of the most successful artists ever, achieving international fame that has made him one of the world’s most recognizable names. His music is still popular today, despite the controversies that have damaged his legacy.
Based on the first trailer, Michael will be a theatrical experience, giving audiences the chance to listen to his music in a loud theater while diving into his life and career. If any artist could surpass Bohemian Rhapsody, it would be Michael Jackson. However, the film might not moonwalk smoothly to $1 billion.
7
The Mandalorian and Grogu – 42%
Star Wars is finally returning to theaters for the first time since 2019’s The Rise of Skywalker with The Mandalorian and Grogu. The titular duo is making the leap from Disney+ to the silver screen, continuing the story of the first three seasons of The Mandalorian. However, it’s hard to estimate the box office ceiling for these characters.
Historically, Star Wars has done exceptionally well at the worldwide box office. All three films in the sequel trilogy grossed over $1 billion, with The Force Awakens grossing over $2 billion. Rogue One also earned $1 billion, but Solo proved that not every Star Wars film is guaranteed box office gold.
The biggest question with The Mandalorian and Grogu is whether it will appeal to casual viewers who haven’t seen the show. Many only keep up with the main films in the saga, rather than every spinoff. However, the two characters are wildly popular, especially Grogu, and that could be enough for the film to reach $1 billion.
6
The Odyssey – 56%
Christopher Nolan is essentially his own IP. Audiences go to any movie he directs for the cinematic experience he delivers, even if it’s a 3-hour R-rated biopic like Oppenheimer, which made $975.8 million worldwide. In his career, Nolan has made two billion-dollar films, The Dark Knight and The Dark Knight Rises, and The Odyssey could be his third.
The Odyssey is an adaptation of Homer’s Greek epic, with a star-studded cast that includes Tom Holland, Matt Damon, Anne Hathaway, Jon Bernthal, Zendaya, Mia Goth, Charlize Theron, and Robert Pattinson. While it’s not premiering until July 17, 2026, it’s already off to a good start at the box office.
Showings for The Odyssey in 70mm IMAX went on sale a year before the film’s release and started selling out quickly. Anticipation is high for Nolan’s next film, especially the chance to see it in the best format possible. While it may not benefit from the “Barbenheimer” effect, The Odyssey has a solid chance at giving Nolan another billion-dollar film.
5
Moana – 78%
Moana has remained incredibly popular well after its 2016 release. The animated musical was the most-watched film across streaming services for both 2023 and 2024, according to Nielsen. Its sustained popularity led to even more box office success, as Moana 2 made over $1 billion worldwide.
Disney isn’t waiting to capitalize on the franchise’s success, as the live-action Moana hits theaters in 2026. Based on the performance of the last film, the upcoming remake has a strong chance of reaching $1 billion, though Disney has had some mixed results with its live-action adaptations.
In 2025, Snow White was a massive flop for the studio, but Lilo & Stitch crossed the billion-dollar mark, showing there is still an audience for these films. The original film isn’t even 10 years old yet, but Moana‘s success on streaming and in theaters proves that the remake will surely be box office gold.
4
Toy Story 5 – 86%
Toy Story 3 was the first animated film to reach $1 billion worldwide. It ended the franchise on a perfect note, but Pixar still moved forward with Toy Story 4. It turned out to be the right move, as the fourth film also grossed $1 billion and earned slightly more than its predecessor.
Toy Story 5 may generate groans from those who felt the series should have ended with 3, but it’ll undoubtedly be a hit for Pixar. After Elio flopped, the studio has two chances in 2026 to bounce back with Hoppers and Toy Story 5. Hoppers‘ success is harder to estimate, but Woody and Buzz’s next adventure is more of a guarantee.
The last two films joined the $1 billion club, and Disney/Pixar’s animated sequels, like Zootopia 2 and Inside Out 2, have been box office sensations. However, it is coming out 2 weeks before Minions 3, another animated hit franchise. Toy Story 5 will likely still get to $1 billion, but the yellow rascals could get in the way.
3
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie – 90%
Mario is a global icon whose popularity crosses multiple generations. Outside of his wildly successful video games, the character is now prospering in theme parks and at the box office. 2023’s The Super Mario Bros. Movie earned $1.36 billion worldwide and is currently the fourth-highest-grossing animated film of all time.
The upcoming sequel will take the series to new worlds, adapting many aspects of the Super Mario Galaxy games. With the additions of Yoshi, Rosalina, and Bowser Jr., The Super Mario Galaxy Movie will easily pass $1 billion at the worldwide box office and may exceed the first film’s total gross.
2
Spider-Man: Brand New Day – 90%
Spider-Man is the highest-grossing superhero at the box office, and the character is coming off his best film yet. No Way Home made $1.9 billion worldwide, nearly joining the rare $2 billion club. It’s the second MCU Spider-Man film to break the billion-dollar mark after Far From Home reached that milestone in 2019.
While Brand New Day isn’t expected to be another Spidey crossover event with Tobey Maguire and Andrew Garfield, Tom Holland’s fourth outing as this character will still be a massive hit. Spider-Man movies have a great history at the box office, and adding Mark Ruffalo’s Hulk and Jon Bernthal’s Punisher generates even more excitement.
1
Avengers: Doomsday – 90%
The MCU’s box office results have been more inconsistent since Avengers: Endgame, but that won’t stop Doomsday from being a massive hit that well surpasses $1 billion worldwide. Marvel’s crossover events always perform well, and Doomsday may be the MCU’s biggest crossover so far.
The film brings together five teams: The Avengers, the Thunderbolts, The Fantastic Four, the Wakandans, and the X-Men. These teams will unite to fight Doctor Doom, played by Robert Downey Jr., whose role and origins are still shrouded in mystery. It’s a multiversal event that will likely end with a cliffhanger to set up Secret Wars.
It was recently announced that Chris Evans is also returning as Steve Rogers, making the film’s already stacked cast even larger. Doomsday may not reach the box office heights of Infinity War and Endgame, but it will still be a box office juggernaut and could be the highest-grossing film of 2026.