Wall Street is keenly watching the economic and political winds as the Iran war rages on with no end in sight.
And it’s starting to look increasingly bad for the Trump administration and Republicans if the war isn’t brought to some form of conclusion soon.
Several charts from JPMorgan out on Tuesday shed light on the matter.
In one, you can see President Trump’s approval rating falling sharply since the beginning of Operation Epic Fury in late February.
Another chart details the waning approval of the state of the US economy. Inflation concerns have also returned to the forefront of consumer minds with gas prices spiking across the country.
Somewhat surprisingly, the stock market hasn’t fallen off a cliff since the war officially began on Feb. 28.
But it has been far from smooth sailing.
The S&P 500 is down roughly 4% during this period, while energy and defense stocks have significantly outperformed. This divergence is largely driven by the war’s impact on oil prices and global supply chains.
Crude oil has surged above $100 per barrel due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, boosting energy companies and inflation expectations while weighing on growth stocks like Nvidia (NVDA) that make up a huge portion of the S&P 500.
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Despite these pressures, the broader market has shown signs of recovery during moments of deescalation, such as when signals of a potential US ceasefire in late March lifted stocks higher.
“We’re truly at a fork in the road,” Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye said on Yahoo Finance’s Opening Bid (video above).
Added Essaye, “We’re either going to destroy infrastructure in Iran, which is going to cause them to then lash out and begin to attack more of their neighbor’s oil infrastructure, which will send the price of oil higher. Or we’re going to get some sort of a 45-day ceasefire or something like that that most people think could last.”
Brian Sozzi is Yahoo Finance’s Executive Editor and a member of Yahoo Finance’s editorial leadership team. Follow Sozzi on X @BrianSozzi, Instagram, and LinkedIn. Tips on stories? Email brian.sozzi@yahoofinance.com.
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