Are Real Madrid losing their edge in the transfer market?

Real Madrid have closed another winter transfer window without making any signings.

Perhaps we should not be surprised — Madrid rarely bring in players at this time of year — but it’s reached the point where it feels like a big opportunity wasted. It is a policy that’s holding the club back.

Madrid’s squad has, for months, looked short on depth. They have been struggling with a plague of injuries that left them significantly weakened for key matches.

In December, they lost against Manchester City at home in the Champions League with eight first-team players missing. A few days later, in a match at Alaves in La Liga, when Xabi Alonso was fighting for his future, nine were missing.

It is no wonder results have dipped. Alonso was sacked on January 12, the day after the 3-2 defeat against Barcelona in the Supercopa de Espana final. Alvaro Arbeloa took charge and lost his first game against Albacete in the Copa del Rey, a team who were just above the second division’s relegation spots. On January 28, Benfica beat Madrid 4-2 on another damaging night, knocking them down to the Champions League play-offs.

Just like last year, there was consensus on different levels within the club, including part of the dressing room, on the need to strengthen. But Madrid’s board again has not budged. They are the ones who call the shots on transfers, with president Florentino Perez holding the final say.

The message from the decision-makers has always been that there would be no signings. This is the seventh consecutive winter transfer window without any incoming first-team transfers. The last such move Madrid made was for Brahim Diaz in January 2019. With his contract at Manchester City expiring that summer, Madrid preferred to secure his signature to avoid bidding wars over the following months.

Multiple players have been offered to Madrid by various agents this month, and each one has been turned away.

The club’s arguments for not signing players are repeated every year: the market is inflated at this time of the season; the few good options available are too expensive. They also believe the squad is good enough to compete for all major titles — something put into question by those recent cup and Champions League defeats.

However, this vision is not widely shared in the world of football, where there is a growing sense of surprise and bewilderment at Madrid’s lack of movement.

In recent weeks, agents, scouts and sporting directors at various European clubs have told The Athletic that they do not understand why Madrid have been categorically ruling out arrivals — as well as departures, such as that of Fran Garcia or Dani Ceballos, that would have lightened the wage bill and partially financed new signings.

One agent, who represents a player widely considered among the best three in his position, said he had offered his client as an option to Madrid, and the club rejected the idea. When this representative suggested exploring different ways of making a deal happen, he found that Madrid were not even willing to consider them.

The recurring demands for signings — from fans, the media and elsewhere — are dealt with very calmly by Madrid’s executives. They argue that there was also criticism over their squad planning in 2022 and 2024, and in both years they won the Champions League.

But a look at Spanish and European football shows that Madrid are almost the only elite club to take such an entrenched stance.

In this window, Barcelona landed Joao Cancelo on loan, while Atletico Madrid signed Ademola Lookman, Rodrigo Mendoza and Obed Vargas. Paris Saint-Germain snapped up Dro Fernandez, while Manchester City bought Antoine Semenyo and Marc Guehi. Chelsea tried to sign Jeremy Jacquet and eventually recalled centre-back Mamadou Sarr from his loan at Strasbourg, while Liverpool paid an initial £55million ($75m) to secure Jacquet for the summer.

Madrid are lagging behind. Guehi, a left-footed centre-back and 25-year-old England international, moved to City for an initial £20million. City also paid a significant commission to Guehi’s agent, but it is hard not to see that deal as a market opportunity. He was offered to Madrid, but they decided not to act.

Madrid have traditionally been masters of that field. Look at the signings of Thibaut Courtois, Kylian Mbappe, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Toni Kroos, Arda Guler and Antonio Rudiger. They were all signed either on a free transfer, a cut-price deal owing to their contracts running down, or for a modest fee paid to reflect their release clause.

It seems Madrid are not involved in pre-contract talks with any potential summer arrivals. Back in November, The Athletic reported that they told Liverpool they were not in the race for Ibrahima Konate, and since then they did not even consider matching the demands of Bayern Munich’s Dayot Upamecano.

But centre-back isn’t the only position Madrid need to strengthen.

Speaking after Alonso’s sacking, sources close to Carlo Ancelotti’s former coaching staff at Madrid, who asked to remain anonymous to protect relationships, said they saw “no immediate solution” to the side’s recent poor displays.

They said what the team needs is a radical overhaul in the summer, financed by the sale of a big-name player. They identified right-back, centre-back, right-winger and, above all, central midfield as the most urgent positions that need addressing.

Alonso wanted more reinforcements last summer — especially a midfielder — despite the club investing around €180million (£157m; $214.3m) on Dean Huijsen, Alexander-Arnold, Franco Mastantuono and Alvaro Carreras.

Before his second spell in charge ended last season, Ancelotti repeatedly asked for more signings. Last term, a source from the coaching staff told The Athletic in January: “Without a right-back, it is impossible to win the Champions League.”

Madrid also often argue that they cannot compete with the economic power of the Premier League or teams owned by nation states, such as PSG. However, the club often boasts of its world-leading and record revenues.

In December, The Athletic’s expert football finance writer Chris Weatherspoon wrote a detailed report on Madrid’s accounts. He concluded that the club had the scope to invest in the squad.

If there is money to spend, it is difficult to understand why Madrid did not sign any players in January, especially given the risk they face of going through a second season without winning a major title. They have already missed out on the Supercopa de Espana and the Copa del Rey.

At Madrid, there are examples of players who arrived in the winter and did not perform as expected, including Antonio Cassano and Julien Faubert. But there are also signings that flourished, such as Marcelo, Casemiro (who initially joined the club’s reserve team) and Gonzalo Higuain.

There are always successes and mistakes at all clubs. The defining factor isn’t what time of year they signed. PSG brought in Khvicha Kvaratskhelia last January from Napoli for a reported €70million, a key move to finish the season on a high note, crowned by their first Champions League title.

This past month was an opportunity for Madrid to do something similar — to back the squad with the reinforcement it clearly needs.

You should never write off Madrid in the Champions League, but a record-extending 16th title looks unlikely.