A war threat and a chance: Turkey and Greece face hard decisions

The leaders of Greece and Turkey are set to meet in Ankara on Wednesday to try to ease tensions, as Ankara’s war threat against an EU member state continues to block its participation in Europe’s defence architecture and broader EU alignment.

The talks between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakisare are expected to focus on lower-stakes issues such as migration, with long-standing disputes – notably over maritime borders – deferred.

Still, Turkey’s casus belli against Greece is likely to surface. Ankara considers it a cause for war if Greece extends its territorial waters in the Aegean from six to 12 nautical miles, arguing this would restrict Turkey’s access to open seas and threaten its naval security.

Athens counters that such an extension is permitted under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea – which Greece has signed, unlike Turkey – and says the threat is the main reason it has blocked Ankara from joining EU defence initiatives such as SAFE and from advancing its broader EU ambitions.

‘Not and unsolvable problem’

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan recently said that the Aegean issue could be resolved if there is political will, suggesting that a compromise is possible. “I do not accept 12 miles, you do not accept six miles […] The Aegean issue is not an unsolvable problem,” he said.

Fidan’s statements were an opening towards Greece, Ino Afentouli, a former official of NATO’s International Staff, told Euractiv, though she questioned whether Athens is currently willing to engage.

Any compromise would carry significant political costs at home, prompting caution on both sides.

At a meeting in Ankara last week, EU Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos and Fidan agreed to revive EU–Turkey relations. The joint statement drew concern in Athens, as no reference was made to Turkey’s casus belli.

Asked by Euractiv about Turkey’s war threats, a European Commission spokesperson said that respect for EU member states’ sovereign rights and international law remains “an essential requirement” for advancing EU–Turkey relations.

For Afentouli – who currently leads the diplomacy department at the ELIAMEP think-tank – opening the EU’s doors remains a key lever for Greek and Cypriot diplomacy, but “no blank cheque” should be granted to Turkey.

According to her, Athens and Nicosia should follow an open-minded diplomacy vis-à-vis Turkey and avoid isolation within the EU.

“We should send a clear message that we are not opposed to EU–Turkey cooperation, but that such cooperation must comply with specific European criteria: Turkey must recognise all EU member states (Cyprus, in this case) and must not maintain a threat of war against Greece.”

However, Turkey has never committed to removing the threat from the table.

Ankara targets Greek defence minister

Meanwhile, Fidan singled out Greek Defence Minister Nikos Dendias, accusing him in an interview with Hürriyet of undermining efforts to improve bilateral relations. He said that while both Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Foreign Minister Giorgos Gerapetritis show the will to resolve disputes, Dendias and others are creating obstacles to rapprochement.

Dendias recently said that any regional cooperation involving Israel, Greece and Cyprus would require Turkey to ratify the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.

“There was no need to say this just before the visit,” former Turkish diplomat Gülru Gezer told Euractiv. She argued that it is in Greece’s strategic interest to keep Turkey anchored in the West, warning that blocking Ankara’s participation in the SAFE programme or slowing EU dialogue is counterproductive.

Dendias enjoys strong support within the ruling New Democracy party and is widely seen as a potential future party leader should Mitsotakis fail to be re-elected in 2027. On relations with Turkey, however, he has consistently based his stance around international law, speaking out against what he has called Neo-Ottoman “revisionism”.

Trump’s Board of Peace

A political solution in southeastern Europe is seen as crucial for tapping the region’s energy potential, with the United States already signalling interest. In this context, Turkey has joined Donald Trump’s Board of Peace for Gaza, while Greece is weighing whether to follow suit.

Afentouli said Turkey was keen to secure a role in Gaza and could not be sidelined. She added that Athens and Nicosia also have reasons to engage, arguing that participation would not amount to opposing the United Nations.

“I imagine that Israel would welcome the presence of two friendly countries – Greece and Cyprus – within this body,” she said.

Israel, however, has expressed unease over Turkey’s participation in the initiative. Athens has yet to respond formally to Trump’s invitation, though government sources said this week the proposal remains under consideration.

At the same time, Israel, Greece and Cyprus have revived their trilateral cooperation – a development being closely watched in Ankara.

(cs, mk)