Freshpet (FRPT) Valuation Check After Mixed Share Returns And Premium P/E Multiple

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Freshpet (FRPT) has drawn investor attention after recent share price moves, with the stock showing mixed returns over different periods and fresh financial figures that frame how the pet food specialist is currently positioned.

See our latest analysis for Freshpet.

While the latest 1-day share price return of 0.25% decline and 7-day share price return of 3.12% decline suggest some cooling, the 30-day and 90-day share price returns of 7.15% and 26.72% respectively contrast with the 1-year total shareholder return of 47.75% decline and 5-year total shareholder return of 57.98% decline. This hints that recent momentum is improving off a weaker long run base.

If this shift in sentiment around Freshpet has you thinking about what else could be moving next, it might be worth scanning our 23 top founder-led companies as a way to spot other potential ideas.

With shares now at US$67.72, Freshpet trades below the average analyst price target, and its own intrinsic estimate suggests a premium. Is the current valuation leaving upside on the table, or already reflecting future growth?

Freshpet’s most followed narrative places fair value at about $70.67 per share, a touch above the last close of $67.72, which sets up a relatively tight valuation gap for investors to weigh.

Operational improvements and implementation of new production technologies at Ennis and other facilities have driven higher yields, quality, and throughput, leading to a significant reduction in CapEx ($100 million less over 2025-26) and enhanced gross/EBITDA margins, setting the business up for improving net earnings and cash generation.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what kind of revenue growth and margin profile has to line up for that fair value to hold? The narrative leans on a specific mix of sales growth, higher profitability and a future earnings multiple that is usually reserved for companies with strong long term expansion stories. The full breakdown shows how those moving parts fit together and what needs to go right for Freshpet to live up to that price.

Result: Fair Value of $70.67 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, this hinges on pet owners trading up and category growth holding up, while slower dog adoption or tighter consumer budgets could easily challenge that setup.

Find out about the key risks to this Freshpet narrative.

The narrative fair value of $70.67 presents Freshpet as modestly undervalued, but the earnings multiple suggests a tighter picture. At a P/E of 26.8x, the shares sit above the US Food industry at 24.1x, above peers at 19.3x, and above a fair ratio of 17.4x. This highlights valuation risk if sentiment cools.

Our earnings multiple check raises a simple question: is the recent improvement in margins and growth enough for Freshpet to continue trading at a premium, or could the market move closer to that fair ratio over time, which would limit returns as it adjusts?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

If you see the numbers differently or simply want to stress test your own assumptions, you can build a custom Freshpet story in just a few minutes, then Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Freshpet research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

If Freshpet has sharpened your thinking, do not stop here. Use the Simply Wall St screener to hunt for other stocks that match your style.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include FRPT.

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