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Ingersoll Rand (IR) stock moved after the company reported fourth quarter 2025 results that topped Wall Street forecasts on revenue and adjusted earnings, alongside full year 2026 guidance and fresh capital return updates.
See our latest analysis for Ingersoll Rand.
The latest move takes Ingersoll Rand’s share price to $98.52, with a 30 day share price return of 11.75% and a 90 day share price return of 33.73%. The 5 year total shareholder return of 125.62% points to strong longer term compounding as recent earnings beats, acquisitions and capital returns keep interest in the name elevated.
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With the shares now above many published price targets and the stock trading close to recent highs, the key question is whether Ingersoll Rand is still offering value or whether the market is already pricing in the next leg of growth.
Simply Wall St’s most followed narrative puts Ingersoll Rand’s fair value at $88.30, which sits below the current $98.52 share price and frames a premium setup for investors to assess.
The company continues building recurring, high-margin revenue streams through expansion of aftermarket services and value-added lifecycle solutions (aftermarket revenue grew to 37% of total), which increases the stability of net margins and supports long-term earnings resilience even if new equipment demand remains variable.
Curious what kind of earnings curve and margin profile would justify paying above today’s fair value estimate? The narrative leans heavily on a step change in profitability, recurring revenue and a future earnings multiple that sits well above the broader machinery group. Want to see which assumptions are doing the heavy lifting in that model and how much buyback driven share count reduction is built in?
Result: Fair Value of $88.30 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, you still need to weigh risks such as acquisition missteps and prolonged tariff or trade friction that could pressure margins and temper those bullish assumptions.
Find out about the key risks to this Ingersoll Rand narrative.
If you see the numbers differently or prefer to rely on your own work, you can quickly build a custom view of IR in just a few minutes, starting with Do it your way.