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Ball Corporation recently reported fourth-quarter 2025 results, with sales rising to US$3,347 million and net income reaching US$200 million, and issued 2026 guidance calling for comparable diluted earnings per share growth of more than 10%.
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The company capped the year with record operating performance and returned about US$1.54 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends, underlining management’s focus on both growth and capital returns.
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Next, we’ll examine how this strong quarter and double-digit 2026 earnings guidance may influence Ball’s existing investment narrative.
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To own Ball, you need to believe in steady demand for aluminum packaging and the company’s ability to turn that demand into consistent earnings and cash returns. The latest quarter, with higher sales and a swing back to profit, supports the near term catalyst of earnings growth, but does not remove key risks around input cost volatility and customer concentration, which still loom large over how durable this momentum might be.
The most relevant recent announcement is Ball’s 2026 guidance for comparable diluted EPS growth of more than 10%. This outlook ties directly into the bullish narrative that post divestiture focus and cost control could improve margins and support faster earnings growth. How well Ball delivers against this target will matter for how investors weigh the appeal of its capital returns against ongoing exposure to aluminum prices and concentrated beverage customers.
Yet beneath the strong quarter and confident 2026 guidance, investors should still pay close attention to the risk that…
Read the full narrative on Ball (it’s free!)
Ball’s narrative projects $14.2 billion revenue and $1.1 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 4.6% yearly revenue growth and a $519.0 million earnings increase from $581.0 million today.
Uncover how Ball’s forecasts yield a $62.69 fair value, a 7% downside to its current price.
Some of the most optimistic analysts were already banking on earnings reaching about US$1.3 billion, assuming higher margins and strong demand, which is a more bullish story than the consensus view that focuses more on gradual EPS growth and the risk that new capacity could be underused if beverage can volumes fall short.
Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Ball – why the stock might be worth as much as 50% more than the current price!