Never miss an important update on your stock portfolio and cut through the noise. Over 7 million investors trust Simply Wall St to stay informed where it matters for FREE.
TPG (TPG) is back in focus after closing a long term partnership with Jackson Financial that combines a $500 million equity investment and a multi year mandate to manage a large pool of Jackson assets.
See our latest analysis for TPG.
Despite a series of new partnerships, acquisitions and solid reported results through 2025, TPG’s recent share price momentum has cooled, with a 30 day share price return of 26.23% and a year to date share price return of 24.67%. The 3 year total shareholder return of 64.55% still reflects a much stronger longer term outcome than the 1 year total shareholder return of 13.69%.
If this insurance partnership has you thinking more broadly about where capital is flowing, it could be a good time to scan 23 top founder-led companies as potential next ideas.
With the shares now giving back much of their earlier surge and trading at $49.53, with a 1-year total return of 13.69% versus 64.55% over 3 years, is TPG being marked down too far, or is the market already looking through to future growth?
TPG’s widely followed valuation narrative puts fair value at $66, above the recent $49.53 close, and ties that gap to aggressive earnings and margin assumptions.
Expansion into private wealth/retail (e.g., T-POP, TCAP) and insurance channels is driving a diversified, stable fee stream and increasing management fee margins. This is positioning TPG to benefit from the long-term industry trend of rising wealth and institutional demand for alternatives, which enhances topline growth and net margin stability.
Want to see what earnings path needs to unfold for that fair value to hold up? The narrative leans heavily on expanding margins and compounding fee income. Curious how those moving parts are modeled across the next few years and what return multiples sit behind them?
Result: Fair Value of $66 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, you still need to weigh the risk that fundraising slows if large investors feel overweight in alternatives, or if tougher exit markets cap carried interest and realizations.
Find out about the key risks to this TPG narrative.
While the SWS DCF model suggests TPG is around 6.5% below fair value at $52.96, the market is pricing the shares at a P/E of 41.1x, which is higher than both the US Capital Markets industry at 23.1x and a fair ratio of 24.2x. This raises the question of whether you are paying up for growth that still needs to arrive.
