Monday, February 16

Financial markets are Trump’s biggest threat


Late American singer Warren Zevon wrote a song about the three things people reach for when everything goes wrong: “Lawyers, Guns and Money.” In global politics, that idea no longer feels hypothetical. It is easy and justifiable to place blame for political and economic instability on President Donald Trump. But global institutions and leaders who have enabled Trump through lack of meaningful action are equally responsible. 

The case against Trump is simple. He ignited tension with divisive rhetoric, increasingly using violent language against fellow American politicians and citizens. He abuses the lengths of executive power, issuing many legally questionable executive orders while in office. He applies legal and political pressure to independent institutions, including threats directed at the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell Chairman, attempting to coerce the Fed chair into making decisions that Trump wants. And he has ruptured alliances alongside the deterioration of America’s global reputation, threatening loyal ally Denmark over Greenland.

Yet, this is nothing America is not prepared for. Our founding fathers implemented a system of checks and balances in which the legislative branch and the judicial branch could limit anabusive executive. The current government has failed to do so.

When infuriated over the whirlwind of Trump’s first 100 days in office— a period marked by tumultuous and rapid political upheaval— Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., gave a 25-hour speech in opposition. However, the speech was to neither block any specific policy or bill of Trump, and many Democrats who praised Booker’s speech only a few weeks before voted to approve Trump’s controversial budget that accelerated many of his policies: they folded against a line activists saw as an opportunity to use the shutdown threat as leverage to protect social programs or block Trump’s executive orders. The legislative branch caved to political pressure. They failed to act as a check and balance on power. 

The Supreme Court’s decision in Trump v. CASA, Inc. is an example of the judicial branch surrendering its own power to the executive. At its core, the case challenged Trump’s executive order to end birthright citizenship — a policy that lower courts immediately found to be a blatant violation of the 14th Amendment.

However, the Supreme Court used a technicality to limit  judges’ power to issue “nationwide injunctions.” By ruling that a judge can only protect the specific individuals who file a lawsuit, it approved a world where the president can enforce an illegal order against millions of people simply because they don’t have the money or the lawyers to sue him individually. This isn’t judicial restraint; it is an evident failure of checks and balances. 

Although some of Trump’s foreign policy has been successful in giving America more economic and political power, it is evident the world does not have the strength to combat his attacks on allies. These actions have corrupted America’s global image to much of our dismay. Simply, there is nobody who can rival the United States militarily. This is a tremendous responsibility that can be mutualistically beneficial under the right leader. However, this military strength gives Trump unrivaled bravado to rupture alliances and tear apart the structure of global institutions. The world does not have the guns to stand up to Trump. 

Thus, in Zevon’s words, America has the lawyers — the law — but does not use them; the rest of the world does not have the guns they need. What’s left is the money, the one thing that America, and the rest of the world still have and use. Specifically, the financial markets.  

Greenland is a prime example of this. Trump is right that America needs both a larger military and economic presence in Greenland to combat Russia’s and China’s respective chokeholds on the Arctic passage — the most important trade route of the future — and critical minerals. However, to do so, he has made outlandish attempts to control Greenland via militaristic threats against Denmark, a North Atlantic Treaty Organization ally. 

These threats are inefficient and unnecessary. Former President Barack Obama’s ambassador to Denmark, Rufus Gifford, explained that Denmark is one of America’s most loyal allies and would accept as much military and economic involvement in Greenland as America wants if Trump simply asked. Instead, Trump chose to threaten that very ally.

Yet, Trump backed down. It was not the soldiers European nations sent to Greenland in defense against America, nor was it any article of NATO, nor was it an act of Congress that caused Trump to back down. It was money.

Immediately following an escalation of 10% tariffs on all European nations, the American stock market had its worst day in four months (falling 2.06%), the value of the American dollar plunged 0.8% — a huge move for a currency — and 10-year Department of Treasury bond yields rose to 4.29%. Treasury bondsare forms of government debt owned by investors. Yields are the percent return owners of that American debt demand for taking it on. Therefore, the higher the yield, the riskier America seems to investors. Nearly five percent for the 10-year bondis a historical precipice of crisis. 

The sell-off was a direct result of Trump’s threats. The rise in bond yields and drop in value of the USD inherently implies investors are less trusting of America. However, the day was also a part of a larger and explicit “sell America” trade that foreign nations and investors were taking part in. One day later, Trump removed threats of force against Greenland, effectively backing down.

Trump’s backdown a day after financial market turmoil is not a coincidence; he did not back down for another reason coincidently. Rather, it was part of a defining theme of the second Trump administration: The financial market has continually forced Trump to back down from his attacks.

In April 2025, when Trump imposed sweeping tariffs against the world, stocks fell, the dollar fell and yields rose. Trump backed down. In April again, when Trump publicly attacked Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, stocks fell, the dollar fell and yields rose. Trump went quiet. Repeatedly throughout the year, the same trend occurred: Trump threatened to impose tariffs, stocks fell, the dollar fell and yields rose. Trump backed down.

However, the same problem for the world still exists: America is the best. It is where foreign money goes. American bonds are the largest investment in the world, absorbing $30 trillion of the world’s money. American dollars are used by everyone. American companies, therefore American stocks, are undoubtedly the best companies in the world, thereby attracting constant investment. 

It is a curse because it means there is no other option. Investors can divest from America like in the “sell America” trade; however, JPMorganChase estimates the world cannot afford to do so consistently. Individual investors will always be attracted to the best companies and sovereign wealth funds — that manage many countries’ investment — are legally bound from taking investment action for political reasons. They must seek the best investment, which for now is America.

This curse is also an opportunity. America is that best option for a reason. While China may rival America in economic size, it will never and does not want to rival America in financial size. To be as liquid of a market as American debt and equities requires near complete transparency into the government and companies, as well as faith within the integrity of the government’s systems and leaders. China does not want to offer such transparency, nor can faith be put into a government that constantly purges opposition. 

Thus, every threat Trump makes against global alliances and institutions weakens the Federal Reserve or manipulates the market faith, and as a result, the integrity of the United States weakens. Then, American investments become worse — which also means sovereign wealth funds can begin to divest — and the United States slowly slips from being the best. 

That is the only line Trump is not willing to cross. While America — from politicians who remain too feeble and fret of re-election concerns to a judicial branch that subdued its own constitutional duty of checks and balances to an abusive executive branch — is too meek to invoke its legal strength and the world holds little to no military and strategic power, financial markets in their candid decisiveness are the last wall against Trump. It is the same pattern: Trump extends his power too far, stocks fall, dollars lose value and yields rise; Trump backs down. 

Carter Linardos is an Opinion Columnist who writes about geopolitics & global finance in his column “The Macro Game.” You can reach him at linardos@umich.edu.



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