The climate science behind our bitterly cold winter in Southern New England

The winter of 2025-2026 will be remembered as one of the coldest in many years across Southern New England.

After a recent string of mild winters with little snow, this winter has reminded people that cold and snowy winters are not a thing of the past in Southern New England.

In the winter outlook from early November, I highlighted the potential for this winter to bring slightly colder-than-average temperatures, but I did not anticipate just how severe the cold would be across the region (nor did I anticipate the cold lasting into February – oops).

A combination of climate drivers worked in tandem to lock in a cold weather pattern for much of this winter. In fact, this winter’s average temperature of 27.5 degrees is tied with the winter of 2014-2015 for the coldest winter in the past 30 years. You have to go back to the winter of 1993-1994 to find a colder winter (27.4).

The Pacific Ocean has been in a La Niña pattern since November, but La Niña alone does not explain this winter chill. In fact, several of our recent mild winters were La Niña winters, so other factors are playing a bigger role in this year’s cold winter.

Five out of the last six winters were La Nina years, but this winter is by far the coldest of the bunch – indicating that factors beyond La Nina are contributing to this bitterly cold winter. (WJAR)

The combination of a negative QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation) and La Niña has kept these reinforcing shots of cold air coming across the region. When the QBO is negative (easterly), it tends to weaken the polar vortex (the area of cold air which is most prevalent in the Arctic). When the polar vortex is weak, it allows the vortex to stretch, and cold air can reach the mid-latitudes where we live in Southern New England.

The polar vortex has periodically “stretched” this winter, which allows cold air to reach the mid-latitudes including Southern New England. (WJAR)

The NAO (North American Oscillation) and AO (Arctic Oscillation) have also been negative for much of the winter, allowing cold air to stay locked in across the eastern U.S. The negative phase of these three oscillations are linked, and

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been negative for much of the winter, which keeps cold air locked in place across New England. (WJAR)

It’s all of these climate drivers (or teleconnections) working in tandem that has kept us so cold.

The cold weather pattern has led to more opportunities for snow. The last three winters had well below-average snowfall, but this winter is on track to end that “snow drought”. The Providence area (T.F. Green) has picked up 29.5 inches of snow so far this winter, and we will likely add to that total in the coming days and weeks.

Our three-year long snow drought is ending in the Providence area, as we are on track for a near to above-average winter snowfall this year. (WJAR)

Storm Team 10 will keep you updated if/when more wintry weather heads our way!