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After much consternation over what the ratings might be for the 2026 NBA All-Star Game, it was a smashing success compared to the previous 15 years. The NBC/Peacock/Telemundo audience showed up. The game pulled in 8.8 million viewers on average and peaked at 9.8 million. That was an 87 percent increase over last year, and the highest-rated All-Star Game since 2011. Let’s hope this new format continues to foster the competition the audience craved.
Why not?
Pistons non-believers, you can check the stats
When the Oklahoma City Thunder lost right before the All-Star break, it meant the Detroit Pistons would enter the stretch run with the league’s best record. The Pistons are 40-13, which gives them a slightly higher win percentage (.755) than the Thunder, who are 42-14 (.750). Two years ago, Detroit won 14 games and had a single-season NBA record 28-game losing streak.
There wasn’t some big trade for a superstar, either. The Pistons fired coach Monty Williams and brought in J.B. Bickerstaff. He’s installed a toughness and defensive mentality that has carried them.
And yet, when I talk to experts and fans, nobody is really picking the Pistons to come out of the Eastern Conference. You hear about the Knicks or Celtics or even the Cavaliers after they acquired James Harden. Detroit still doesn’t seem to be generating that level of trust. Why? Let’s go through the Pistons’ resume and figure out if it’s wrong to doubt them as the East favorite.
- Best net rating (plus-8.3) in the East, second-best in the NBA.
- Fifth-best offensive rating (116.6) in the East, 10th-best in the NBA.
- Best defensive rating (108.3) in the East, second-best in the NBA.
- 21-6 at home (best in the East), 18-7 on the road (best in the East).
- 26-7 in conference play. That’s also the best in the East.
- 17-6 against .500-or-better teams (best in the East).
- 23-9 in clutch games (best in the East).
These are some pretty overwhelming numbers. It’s easy to see why the Pistons have the best record. They’re just outperforming everybody. I didn’t even mention their 18-3 record in games decided by double-digits. That’s also the best in the East.
So why don’t people trust them? It might be the offense, which maybe has to do with the makeup of the roster. I know I just said they have the 10th-best offense in the league, but let’s dig deeper into what that means.
There is some element of smoke and mirrors with the Detroit offense, much like we saw with the Rockets last season:
- 48.0 percent on field goals. Second in the East, sixth in the NBA.
- 34.9 percent on 3-pointers. Eleventh in the East, 21st in the NBA.
- 75.5 percent on free throws. Fourteenth in the East, 26th in the NBA.
- 35.5 percent 3-point rate. Fifteenth in the East, 27th in the NBA.
- 30.0 percent free-throw rate. Second in the East, third in the NBA.
- 15.2 percent turnover rate. Twelfth in the East, 22nd in the NBA.
- 72.0 percent assist rate. Twelfth in the East, 17th in the NBA.
- 35.2 percent offensive rebounding rate. Second in the East, fourth in the NBA.
- 56.5 points in the paint per 100 possessions. First in the East, first in the NBA.
- 22.2 points off turnovers per 100 possessions. First in the East, second in the NBA.
- 18.3 fast break points per 100 possessions. Second in the East, second in the NBA.
What does all this mean? I’m so glad I asked! The Pistons score a ton in the paint. Some of that is because of their prowess on the offensive boards. Some of that is because they don’t shoot a lot of 3-pointers — because they can’t make a lot of 3-pointers. They also rely a lot on getting to the free-throw line, but they don’t shoot a good percentage there.
We know Cade Cunningham can create a lot, and he’s become a reliable clutch scorer. But who else can create shots for themselves and, more importantly, teammates? They don’t have a second initiator to trust, and that’s where they could find trouble in the postseason. When things bog down, who helps Cunningham? Maybe their defense is so good that they continue to create turnovers and scoring opportunities off those turnovers and in transition. But not being able to match a 3-pointer consistently could prove troublesome.
Still, the Pistons are tied for the third-best title odds in the East, according to BetMGM. The Celtics and Cavs are +1300, and the Knicks and Pistons are +1400 to win it all. The Cavs are the betting favorite to win the East at +325, and the Knicks and Pistons are +350. That Cleveland surge is due to money bet on it since the Harden trade.
Detroit has the best record now, but it has to prove that the disbelief is foolish
The last 24
🏀 Stretch storylines. Can Joel Embiid stay healthy? Who’ll win the MVP? Here are some of the biggest things to watch the rest of the regular season.
💰 Awkward? Gambling is causing issues in pro sports, including a federal probe involving NBA figures. Some of the league’s biggest stars are also investing in betting sites.
🏀 Tanking impact. John Hollinger breaks down how tanking will impact the playoffs. Including your remaining tanking games for each playoff hopeful.
🚀 Heard about Houston? Will Guillory has some burning questions for the Rockets. Are they ready for adversity?
🇶🇦 Chase dreams. Abdulla Mousa played at the Basketball Without Borders event. The 17-year-old is trying to become the first player from Qatar to make the NBA.
🙏 Rest in peace. An innovative and legendary coach passed away. Doug Moe left us at 87 years old.
Stream the NBA on Fubo (try it for free!) and catch out-of-market games on League Pass.
Homecourt advantage?
Being No. 1 in the East doesn’t mean much
We spoke about the Pistons above, and they’re 5.5 games ahead of Boston and six games ahead of New York with 29 games left. As long as they stay relatively healthy, they’re going to easily lock up the No. 1 seed in the East. That’s a good thing, right? That’s actually not such an easy question to answer.
If we’re just talking about Detroit taking the next step and advancing past the first round for the first time since 2008, then yes. If we’re talking about its attempt to represent the East in the NBA Finals, the last 20 years don’t look kindly on any team that tries to be the Beast of the East.
Only four times in the previous 20 years has the team with the best record in the East made the finals. Look at the breakdown of how the best records in the conference have finished (not by seeding but flat-out best record with ties decided by conference record):
The tough thing about those title numbers is that two of the best records to win it all (2013 and 2016) came from LeBron James just being ridiculous. I’m not sure anybody in this current East can expect one of their players to turn into that. Aside from that, 16 of the past 20 best records in the East didn’t even make the finals. There are plenty of reasons to explain why, but it always seems to be something.
The No. 2 seed has made the finals nine times during the last 20 years, so maybe the battle between Boston and New York is more indicative of who might reach the championship round? This isn’t an exact science, and the league has changed a lot over those 20 years, but finishing first in the conference doesn’t seem so important. Maybe the Pistons can buck that trend and become just the second East No. 1 seed to play in the finals in the last 10 years.
Wild West
Being the top seed means more here
The West doesn’t quite shake out like the East when we’re talking about No. 1 seeds. More than half of the teams with the best records in the West have made the finals in the past 20 years.
You want to avoid being the No. 4 seed, if anything, because you’re so often put in a tough first-round matchup. And even if you win that, which happens less than half the time, you end up playing the No. 1 seed in the next round. Look at how the West shook out with playoff finishes over the previous 20 postseasons:
The Lakers in 2009 and 2019, the Spurs in 2014, the Warriors in 2015 and 2017, the Lakers again in 2020, the Nuggets in 2023 and the Thunder last season all won the championship after posting the best record in the West. You pretty much have no shot of making the finals over the last 20 years from the West without one of the top-three records.
Sixteen of the last 20 finals teams from the West finished in the top two of the conference. The three times a team won the title outside of that were the 2007 Spurs, 2011 Mavericks and 2022 Warriors. The only time a team has made the finals outside of the top three was the 2024 Mavericks. Remember: They catapulted themselves with some midseason trades.