MA enrollment increases of 1-3% over the last two years compared to 7%-10% between 2017 and 2024.
Enrollment in Medicare Advantage plans is still growing, but at a slower pace, according to STAT.
STAT cited federal data that shows as of February 1, approximately 35.5 million Americans are enrolled in a Medicare Advantage plan, which represents close to a 3% growth from last year’s figure of 34.4 million enrollees.
However, historically, MA annual enrollment growth was 7% to 10% between 2017 and 2024.
In 2025, annual MA growth after open enrollment growth was 1%, showing a two-year trend of declining numbers.
WHY THIS MATTERS
Earlier this month the major insurers reported Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings.
The largest Medicare Advantage insurer, UnitedHealthcare expects a loss of 1.3 million to 1.4 million members in 2026, according to UnitedHealthcare CEO Tim Noel.
UnitedHealthcare planned for MA contraction in 2026, Noel said, but added, “These are greater losses than originally anticipated.”
UnitedHealth Group released its earnings a day after the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services posted the Advance Notice, giving MA insurers less than a 1% increase.
“The news in the Advance Notice was disappointing,” Noel said.
The Advance Notice was one more challenge for MA insurers plagued by declining reimbursement, a medical cost trend higher than the rate in the Advance Notice and more stringent CMS requirements in star ratings that affect millions in bonus payments.
There’s been $30 billion in funding reductions over three years, Noel said during the earnings call.
Humana, the second largest MA insurer in the country, has gone all-in on the MA market and gained an estimated 1.2 million members in 2026.
But the insurer’s earnings fell due to Medicare Advantage’s rising medical costs.
UnitedHealthcare and CVS Health have pulled back from the market and all of the major players have planned for a decrease in their MA benefit structures.
THE LARGER TREND
An estimated 54% of senior citizens on Medicare are in a Medicare Advantage plan.
The MA market has expanded on an rising demographic of aging baby boomers.
The largest surge of Americans turning 65 peaked in 2024, according to an AARP report. Based on census data, an estimated 4.1 million Americans a year will turn 65 and that level is expected to remain stable through 2027.
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