Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq rise as AI worries recede, Fed minutes released

The Roundhill Sports Betting and iGaming ETF (BETZ) is having its best day since last April (+2.9%) — with betting operators (CZR +12.7%, RSI +8.9%, MGM +8.5%, DKNG +3.7%) doing most of the heavy lifting.

Caesar’s Q4 results are driving the action, helping reset the “Vegas demand is cracking” narrative and pulling peers along with it. But the long-term trend is still down; Caesar’s stock has gotten whacked by 80% since its 2021 record high.

And it’s a similar story for the ETF, which has nearly been cut in half over the same time frame — and is on track for its sixth straight losing month.

Technically, CZR is dangling from a cliff, without much support until the $10 level (which would imply another 50% haircut).

BETS does have near-term support around $17 — lose it, and the downtrend reasserts to as low as $14.

Federal Reserve minutes released on Wednesday show some policy members leaning toward holding rates steady “for some time” as they assess incoming data. However, rate cuts could be in store if inflation declines further.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes are from its January meeting, in which the policy makers held rates unchanged.

“In considering the outlook for monetary policy, several participants commented that further downward adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate if inflation were to decline in line with their expectations,” said the minutes.

“Some participants commented that it would likely be 12 January 27–28, 2026 appropriate to hold the policy rate steady for some time as the Committee carefully assesses incoming data,” said the minutes.

As of Wednesday, Polymarket bettors assigned a 93% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged again at its next meeting in March.

Meanwhile, bets on the platform indicate that traders expect two to three rate cuts this year.

Following the release of the minutes, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) remained steady, trading up 0.7%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) increased 1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) picked up about 0.4%.

Wendy’s (WEN) stock rose as much as 17% on Wednesday after an SEC filing from activist investor Trian Partners said the company was exploring strategic alternatives for the company, including a possible deal to acquire the struggling fast food chain, in which it holds a roughly 16% stake.

In an updated 13D filing on Wednesday, Trian said it planned to exchange information with existing or potential co-investors and reach other agreements that would contemplate transactions “including an acquisition or other extraordinary transaction resulting in the Filing Person (and/or their affiliates), either alone or with other parties (including one or more Potential Partners), acquiring control of the Company, and which transactions could result in a de-listing or de-registration of the Company’s Common Stock.”

As The Wall Street Journal noted Wednesday, Trian — led by Nelson Peltz — previously pushed for strategic changes at Wendy’s in 2022 before changes at the company led Trian to back off these demands the following year.

Last week, Wendy’s reported its global same-store sales fell 8.3% in the fourth quarter, which included a 10.5% decline in its US comp sales. Wendy’s stock has lost over 40% in the last year.

Yahoo Finance’s Jen Schonberger reports:

Read more here.

Walmart (WMT) is set to release its first earnings report under new CEO John Furner in what should be a key reading for investors on the holiday shopping season. The retailer, which recently crossed $1 trillion in market cap for the first time, is expected to report adjusted earnings per share of $0.73 and revenue of $190 billion.

Yahoo Finance’s Brooke DiPalma reports:

Read more here.

Gold (GC=F) jumped 2% on Wednesday, reclaiming the $5,000 level as tensions between the Trump administration and Iran escalated and the odds of US. military action increased.

“The precious metals sector has so far been the primary beneficiary of heightened U.S. attack concerns,” wrote Ole Sloth Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank, in a post on X.

Gold futures rebounded from a 2% drop on Tuesday when Asian markets closed for the Chinese New Year.

Silver (SI=F) and platinum (PL=F) also rallied 6% and 4% respectively.

In addition to strains between the US and Iran, peace talks over the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine appeared to falter.

Gasoline prices remained on track to notch their 12 consecutive week below $3 per gallon on Wednesday, though that picture could swing with the coming uptick in driving as warmer weather arrives.

Our Ines Ferré reports:

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US industrial production increased in January by the largest month-on-month percentage since March 2025, according to data released Wednesday morning by the Federal Reserve Board.

Industrial production grew by 0.7% month on month, marking a steep jump over December’s growth of 0.25%. Economists had expected growth of 0.4%, according to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

The industrial production figures were supported by strong growth in manufacturing, which grew 0.6% month on month compared to economists’ estimates of 0.4% and last month’s month-on-month loss of 0.02%.

Compared to a year ago, industrial production and manufacturing activity were up 2.3% and 2.4%.

Shares in Moderna (MRNA) jumped more than 6% in the first minutes of Wednesday’s trading session after the US Food and Drug Administration agreed to review the drugmaker’s first flu shot of the season, reversing course on a decision to reject the review last week.

Moderna recently developed a new flu vaccine using the same mRNA technique that underpins its COVID-19 vaccine. But after requesting review from the federal government, the FDA initially declined to review the drug — a necessary regulatory step toward bringing the drug to market — saying that it wasn’t satisfied with Moderna’s trials.

On Wednesday morning, however, Moderna announced in a press release that the FDA had reversed course and agreed to review the drug. The drugmaker said that, to expedite approval, it had proposed a “regulatory pathway based on age, seeking full approval for adults 50 to 64 years of age and accelerated approval for adults 65 and older.”

“We appreciate the FDA’s engagement in a constructive Type A meeting and its agreement to advance our application for review,” said Stéphane Bancel, Chief Executive Officer of Moderna said in the statement. “Pending FDA approval, we look forward to making our flu vaccine available later this year so that America’s seniors have access to a new option to protect themselves against flu.”

US stocks started Wednesday’s trading session heading into the green as investors looked to Federal Reserve meeting minutes out later for guidance on its thinking around interest rates.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC), the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) all picked up roughly 0.2% to start the session.

The minutes of the Fed’s January meeting are set for release at 2 p.m. ET, with traders continuing to price in at least two rate cuts this year as of Wednesday morning. The notes will set the stage for the next update on inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index on Friday.

On the corporate front, DoorDash (DASH), eBay (EBAY), and Analog Devices (ADI) report results Wednesday.

The pace of construction of new homes in the US rose to a five-month high in December as the housing market tries to show some signs of life with interest rates leveling out.

The number of new single-family homes under construction in December hit an annualized rate of 1.4 million homes, up 6.2% from November and ahead of forecasts for an annualized rate of 1.32 million homes, according to data from the Census Bureau. This pace of building, however, is still 7.3% below December 2024.

This report followed Tuesday’s read on homebuilder confidence from the NAHB, which showed sentiment fell by another point to 36 this month, the lowest reading since September.

In an email on Wednesday, Alexandra Brown, North America economist at Capital Economics, wrote:”Even though homebuilders are still benefiting from the modest decline in mortgage rates over the past few months, this is unlikely to last. We expect the Fed to cut only once more this year.

“With almost three cuts currently priced into markets, financial conditions should re-tighten later this year as fewer cuts are realised,” Brown added.

“As a result, we do not expect the uptick in housing starts to be sustained throughout this year.”

Oil prices rose on Wednesday as traders priced in continued geopolitical risk and stringent sanctions after peace talks between Russia and Ukraine appeared to collapse after only two hours.

Futures on Brent crude (BZ=F), the international pricing benchmark, rose over 2% to trade around $69, while those on US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude (CL=F) picked up a slightly stronger 2.5% to trade around $63.80.

In comments after the talks ended, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky said the Russian delegation made the negotiations “difficult” and accused Russia of intentionally delaying progress toward a deal that could end the war between the two countries, according to Reuters.

Russia’s chief negotiator, Vladimir Medinsky, also described the US-led talks, held in Geneva, Switzerland, as “difficult” in comments after the negotiations ended.

The oil market has, since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began four years ago, priced in an increasingly high-risk profile around disrupted Russian oil and gas exports. Surprise sanctions from the US Treasury late in 2025 against major Russia oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil have only furthered those tensions.

At the same time, traders are also closely watching the Middle East. While Iran’s foreign minister said talks between Tehran and Washington had reached a potential framework for a deal on Iran’s nuclear program, the X account for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei spent Tuesday posting incendiary comments about the deal, and Iran partially closed the Strait of Hormuz for several hours for naval military exercises.

The Strait of Hormuz is seen as Iran’s biggest lever to pull in any conflict, as the strait sees roughly 20 million barrels of petroleum products per day traverse its waters.

Analog Devices (ADI) stock rose 6% before the bell on Wednesday following the release of its second quarter earnings, which beat analysts’ estimates. The company cited strong demand from its industrial and data ‌center customers as the artificial intelligence boom continues ​to drive semiconductor sales.

Reuters reports:

Read more here.

You might recall that shares of transportation logistics player C.H. Robinson (CHRW) were run over last week out of the blue. The company had no earnings report. Execs weren’t presenting at an investment banking conference.

Instead, the stock was swept up in the AI sell-off after Algorhythm Holdings (RIME) said it had created software that made transport logistics way more efficient.

I think the sell-off was very overdone and in no way reflective of C.H. Robinson’s impressive fundamentals. The company is at the forefront of using AI in its business. In fact, it has stripped a ton of costs from its business thanks to its first-mover advantage in AI.

You can find out what C.H. Robinson CEO Dave Bozeman has to say about it live on the Opening Bid show at 9:45 a.m. ET today. I expect Bozeman to fiercely defend his company, as he should.

Tune in here or on the Yahoo Finance mobile app.

Palo Alto (PANW) stock fell 7% before the bell on Wednesday after the company cut its full-year earnings outlook on Tuesday.

Western Digital (WDC) stock rose 2% during premarket hours on Wednesday following its annoucement that it will raise $3.17 billion by selling its stake in Sandisk (SNDK). Sandisk stock fell by 2% during premarket trading today.

SSR Mining (SSRM) stock rose by 7% before the bell on Wednesday after reporting higher fourth-quarter adjusted earnings and revenue. The mining company said it expects to see a 10% increase in its gold-equivalent production of 450,000 to 535,000 ounces from its Marigold, CC&V, Seabee, and Puna operations.