Welcome to week 27 of The Athletic’s Premier League predictions challenge, where nobody — not even table-topping Wilfred — saw that Wolves comeback coming.
All of us went for an Arsenal win at Molineux on Wednesday. I said 3-0, the algorithm went for 2-1, and both guest subscriber Jack and six-year-old Wilfred said 2-0.
As the game entered stoppage time, the algorithm was on course for a rare correct scoreline, but then Wolves teenager Tom Edozie struck and Arsenal substitute Riccardo Calafiori could only divert the ball into the net, blowing the title race wide open.
That result made no change in The Athletic’s predictions challenge, with zeros all round, but it underlined what we have been up against this season — so many matches taking dramatic late twists in stoppage time and so many points dropped by the leading teams.
To elaborate, if you had backed Arsenal to win every game, you would have been right 17 times out of 27. If you had backed Manchester City to win every game, you would have been right 16 times out of 26. Manchester United, Chelsea and Liverpool — fourth, fifth, and sixth — have all won fewer than half their games.
Compare that with the 2018-19 season. If you had backed Manchester City to win every game, you would have been right 32 times out of 38. If you had backed Liverpool to win every game, you would have been right 30 times out of 38. That was a title race in which the top two were almost faultless, hence finishing with 98 and 97 points respectively. That has been far from the case this season.
Whether that suggests a drop in quality at the top or a rise in quality and competitiveness across the league is open to fierce debate. It is a complicated question without an easy answer, which is why, beyond saying “a bit of both, really”, I would prefer to explore the subject at length at a later date.
I have said previously that I have found some of the football I’ve watched this season a turn-off, but like it or lump it — or hurl it into the penalty area and hope for the best — it is leading to tighter, more attritional games, which in turn makes outcomes less predictable.
Well, at least that is my excuse for languishing in third place in our predictions challenge behind a six-year-old and the subscribers.
Each week since the season began in August, four of us — Wilfred, a guest subscriber on rotation, an algorithm and I — have been predicting the Premier League results.
We are awarding three points for a correct scoreline and one for a correct result. There’s also a bonus point for any correct “unique” prediction, so last week’s guest subscriber, James, picked up four points as the only one to predict Aston Villa’s 1-0 win over Brighton and another couple of two-pointers for wins for Bournemouth and Liverpool at Everton and Sunderland respectively.
Here are the results from the first 10 games of Matchday 26 to refresh your memories.
And this is where it leaves the standings, with no points being added following the game between Wolves and Arsenal on Wednesday.
This week has been a little different, with Arsenal’s game at Wolves brought forward to Wednesday night to avoid a clash with next month’s Carabao Cup final.
That has meant an extra game — and, with it, extra responsibility — for this week’s guest subscriber, Jack, a 32-year-old Arsenal fan from London.
Jack, like the rest of us, went for an Arsenal win at Wolves, but I expect he’ll be undeterred when it comes to predicting the outcome of this Sunday’s north London derby. I bet, like every Arsenal fan, he is panicking under the surface, though…
Good luck, Jack.
Our subscriber’s match of the week
Tottenham vs Arsenal, Sunday, 4.30pm UK/11.30am ET
Jack says: You never know what will happen in this fixture. Tottenham have been awful at home this season, but with the ‘new-manager bounce’ and also the derby energy, the game might be less one-sided than people expect. This is always a tough match for Arsenal, but I expect their defensive stability at the back will enable them to see the game out.
Tottenham 0-2 Arsenal
Oli says: If you had asked me a fortnight ago, I would have predicted an emphatic Arsenal win. But their title challenge is wobbling — just two wins in their last seven league games after drawing from winning positions at Brentford and Wolves — and Tottenham might suddenly fancy their chances as they look to make a new start under interim coach Igor Tudor. The Croatian is renowned for taking over underperforming teams and immediately bringing unity, organisation, energy and intensity, at least in the short-term, so it feels like this will be a very different game to the one I previously imagined.
I’m predicting a scrap in midfield, loads of yellow cards, maybe a red card or two, VAR controversies, and perhaps Arsenal to shade it on a set piece.
Tottenham 1-2 Arsenal
Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta was disconsolate after the draw with Wolves on Wednesday (Michael Regan/Getty Images)
Oli’s other predictions
Aston Villa vs Leeds
This is the kind of game in which Villa have struggled lately, beaten 1-0 at home by both Everton and Brentford. Leeds are another physical, well-organised and highly spirited team with the capacity to frustrate. I was going to put this one down as a draw, but I’ve changed my mind at the last moment and I’ll go for a narrow Villa win instead. Not really convinced, though.
Aston Villa 2-1 Leeds
Brentford vs Brighton
Brighton are playing better than a horrible run of results — one win, six draws, and six defeats in their last 13 Premier League games — suggests. Five of those six defeats have been by a single goal. Is that a consolation for head coach Fabian Hurzeler? Or is it more of a concern? The weekend pits them against a Brentford side who have excelled at winning tight games. Some would say these small margins are indicative of luck. I would suggest not.
Brentford 2-1 Brighton
Chelsea vs Burnley
In all probability, Burnley are going down — but not without a fight. Their spectacular comeback at Crystal Palace, a 3-2 win from 2-0 behind, told us that. Like Wolves, they have been competitive on a game-by-game basis, even if that is not reflected in the Premier League table. I suspect Saturday will see more of the same: Burnley to give it a good go, but Chelsea will be too strong.
Chelsea 2-0 Burnley
West Ham vs Bournemouth
Quietly, from what looked like a bleak position five weeks ago, West Ham have given themselves a fighting chance of Premier League survival. A haul of 10 points from the last five games offers real encouragement, as does the excellent form of both Mateus Fernandes and Crysencio Summerville. Bournemouth are back in form, too (14 points from their last six games), so this could be a really good game. West Ham to edge it.
West Ham 2-1 Bournemouth
Manchester City vs Newcastle
That was a fantastic win for Newcastle away to Qarabag on Wednesday, putting their Champions League knockout phase play-off to bed with the second leg still to come, but impressive results in Europe this season have often been followed a few days later by a jolting defeat in the Premier League. I’m predicting something similar on Saturday against a Manchester City team who are starting to look like they mean business. Newcastle won the reverse fixture at St James’ Park in November, but this is a game where I can imagine Pep Guardiola’s side sending out a strong message to Arsenal.
Manchester City 3-0 Newcastle
Crystal Palace vs Wolves
Over the past 11 matches, dating back to mid-December, no Premier League team has won fewer points than Crystal Palace’s six. That includes Wolves, whose form has picked up considerably under Rob Edwards — only one win but a series of draws, typified by that dramatic fightback at home to Arsenal on Wednesday — so there’s a temptation to go with form here and back Wolves to get a result. But a) that game on Wednesday against Arsenal may have taken a lot out of Edwards’ team, and b) surely Palace have to rouse themselves sooner rather than later. If they don’t, they could be in big trouble.
Crystal Palace 2-0 Wolves
Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool
Vitor Pereira is Nottingham Forest’s fourth coach of the season — all of them “permanent” appointments, but there is no such thing in modern football and particularly not under an owner such as Evangelos Marinakis. After getting two appointments right (Steve Cooper and Nuno Espirito Santo), Marinakis has reverted to type, with impulsive and erratic decision-making having undermined Forest’s campaign from the start. Pereira will hope to stimulate the same kind of uplift he achieved at Wolves last season, but Forest, after a successful 3-0 win in the Europa League in Istanbul on Thursday night, will have their work cut out against a Liverpool team who should be refreshed after a midweek off.
Nottingham Forest 1-2 Liverpool
Sunderland vs Fulham
Could Sunderland or Fulham qualify for Europe? The instinctive response is no, given that they’re 11th and 12th at the moment and both have lost four of their last six Premier League matches. But the table is so congested that putting any kind of winning run together could make a real difference while the teams above them are distracted by European commitments. Winning games is hard, though; Sunderland have won nine out of a 26 in the league in a season that has surpassed all expectations. I’ll go for another draw here.
Sunderland 1-1 Fulham
Everton vs Manchester United
An evening kick-off at Goodison Park, under the floodlights, could be intimidating for visiting teams — and sometimes for the home team. Hill Dickinson Stadium hasn’t generated that kind of feeling yet, with Everton winning just four of their first 13 Premier League games there and none of the last five. Upcoming fixtures against Manchester United, Chelsea and Liverpool offer the prospect of memorable occasions, but this one looks nothing like as straightforward as it might have done a month or so ago. It really could go either way. OK, United win.
Everton 1-2 Manchester United
