00:00 Speaker A
we talked about uh just was that just yesterday, Ben? Um we talked about the broad range of outcomes that it could be, but it seems like that this is in fact a pretty uh clear outcome, perhaps clearer than than maybe we expected.
00:19 Ben
Absolutely, yeah. No, this is a much more sort of unequivocal ruling than I think a lot of expectations were coming in, espe- especially considering how long the delays were here. The these quotes from from John Roberts here really echo his skepticism that we saw last November in in the in the in the argument session and sort of really clearly lay out that these tariffs are are illegal. In his view, you know, had Congress intended to convey the distinct and extraordinary power to impose tariff, it would have done so expressly. That was that was one of many sort of such quotes from from Robert’s opinions here that really set out um how um in in the court’s view these are these are these tariffs are illegal. It does, this refund question I think will be one that lingers on. You were talking about it in the previous guest and there’s a lot of uncertainty there on this refund question. There’s going to be this is a decision that’s 170 pages long, so there’s lots of nuances here both from the Roberts decision. Um it’s notable that Amy Coney Barrett wrote a concurring opinion to agree, but there’s going to be lots to just go over there as well as the dissenting opinions from the three justices who opposed this decision. So a lot lot to be worked out there and this refund process going forward, especially because so many companies have been lining up for refunds, filing preemptive lawsuits for months now, whether they get first in line, if their refunds are a possibility. All these are sort of questions we’re going to be working on for the rest of the day and for the weeks ahead.
01:54 Speaker A
Yeah, I mean, I think it’s really interesting. We’ve just talked to two people, uh Terry Haynes, who’s a policy expert, Nick Akerman, who’s a legal expert. One of them said this is going to have to go through the courts, as you mentioned, for the folks to get refunds. Nick thinks it’s going to be more of a regulatory rulemaking situation that will get these these things repaid. Um, do we know the answer to this yet or I guess we don’t?
02:20 Ben
I no, we don’t know. It’s it’s notable that’s why I think, you know, this is the decisions can be gone over. Amy Coney Barrett did in the in the arguments last fall, she talked about how messy this refund process would be. She agreed with this opinion, but she wrote a concurring opinion that that’s still being digested here. So I think that’s clearly a sticking point that we’re seeing already in this decision that there there was agreement that these tariffs are illegal, but exactly the remedies in terms of this refund question are going to be much more complex and even though we have this kind of stark ruling on the legality of these IPEA tariffs, we we clearly don’t have a lot of guidance on what the refund process is going to be going forward. So I there there’s definitely no question, there’s no there’s no certainty whether it’s legal, whether it’s regulatory, a bunch of different avenues this could go going forward.
03:22 Speaker A
And and I and I also want to ask, I mean, as I mentioned earlier, CNN is reporting that the president says there’s a backup plan, which is not surprising. Um, but do we have any glimmers of what that plan could look like?
03:37 Ben
Indeed. There are there are a number of tariff authorities that Trump could rely on to replicate these um indirectly. There’s there’s some authorities that could allow him to reimpose some of these tariffs immediately on a short-term duration and then there’s kind of a longer-term process that could allow these type of tariffs, these kind of blanket tariffs that have been that have been such a are such the issue here, using other laws. This is a 1977 law called the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. There’s a bunch of other ways that Congress has given authority to the president to do tariffs over the years, both on sectors but also on entire nations. So he could, he has the authority to follow these up with different ways. It’s slower, it’s messier, all these questions. I would also add that I do think the midterm election year politics are going to be a big factor here in terms of how much does he does he try to replicate these one-to-one? I don’t think that’s a certainty because of the unpopularity of tariffs now, come as voters get ready to vote. The actions we’ve actually seen from Trump in the last um four months are rolling back some of his tariffs, giving exceptions for things like things you see at the grocery store, things on pharmaceuticals, things like that. So I don’t think it’s necessarily certain that he he will try to go one for one, no matter what he’s what he’s saying right now, but he definitely does have the power to try.
05:07 Speaker A
Ben, thank you so much. Really appreciate it.