The stakes could hardly be any higher for Sunday’s north London derby. Even by the usual standards of this rivalry, this match matters more than most.
Arsenal need a win to steady themselves in the title race. While Mikel Arteta’s team still sit at the top of the Premier League table, Wednesday’s collapse at Wolves has given everyone of a red and white persuasion some untimely jitters.
Tottenham Hotspur, meanwhile, are fighting for top-flight survival under new interim manager Igor Tudor who will take charge of his first match this weekend.
Five points is all that separates Spurs from the relegation zone and their current run of two wins in 17 games means nothing can be taken for granted. Tudor has been hired to guide them away from danger.
To do that the Croatian must improve Tottenham’s home form. Under Thomas Frank, Spurs won just two out of 13 home league fixtures — only bottom-of-the-table Wolves have won fewer.
Tottenham have only kept a clean sheet at home twice this season. In fact, they have conceded over 1.5 goals in six of their last eight Premier League matches at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Home and away, Spurs have also allowed at least two goals in each of their last six Premier League matches. This defensive vulnerability was a big factor in Frank’s departure.
At 4/6, Arsenal to score over 1.5 goals represents decent value, especially considering the Gunners have scored seven goals in their last three away league games. That tally could increase further at the home of their closest rivals.
Of course, Arsenal sometimes struggle to break down a low block. That was an issue for them in the 1-1 draw against Brentford and is a reason why Arteta has experimented with some of his recent team selections.
With Kai Havertz and Martin Odegaard both injured, the use of Bukayo Saka as a No 10 against Wigan Athletic and Wolves said something about Arsenal’s lack of options through the middle.
It also says much about Arteta’s determination to fit Noni Madueke into the lineup. The 23-year-old registered more shots (three) than any other Arsenal player against Wolves and is 4/6 to match that tally against Tottenham on Sunday.
Arsenal comprehensively dismantled Spurs in the first north London derby of the season, the 4-1 win highlighting the gulf that currently exists between the two rivals.
Rodrigo Bentancur, Kevin Danso, Mohammed Kudus, Wilson Odobert, Cristian Romero, Djed Spence and Destiny Udogie all started that match, but won’t play any part in this weekend’s game due to injury.
Injuries look like being Tudor’s biggest obstacle. No fewer than 11 players were sidelined for the final match of Frank’s tenure against Newcastle United with Odobert now also in the treatment room.
Romero won’t play any part in Sunday’s north London derby after his mindless red card in the defeat by Manchester United, his second red card in 10 matches. While Spurs will not have to worry about the volatile captain on derby day, his absence leaves Tudor very light for options at the back.
Arsenal have stuttered in the title race and need a win against Spurs (Michael Regan/Getty Images)
As a manager in Ligue 1 and Serie A, Tudor has largely favoured a back three. Indeed, the Croatian used a back four only four times in 124 league games as Juventus, Lazio and Marseille manager.
Tactically, this could help Tottenham frustrate Arsenal. It might not be pretty, but a safety-first approach might be Tudor’s best chance of getting something out of the game.
A draw is priced at 5/2 and while that might seem like an improbable outcome considering the contrasting league position of the two teams, Arsenal have dropped points to two of the bottom four (Nottingham Forest and Wolves) already this year.
Both Arsenal and Tottenham know what they need from the final 12 games of the season. Can Spurs find a system that somehow organises their remaining handful of available defenders into a coherent structure and provides the basis for a counter-attacking approach when the ball is turned over?
Dominic Solanke has been a rare bright spot in Tottenham’s recent performances, scoring four times in six games. The Spurs striker is 3/1 to extend his good goalscoring form in the derby.
Meanwhile, Arsenal are tasked with proving their title credentials. Can they get anything more out of their attacking options? Would returning Saka to his usual role on the right wing help the Gunners pose a bigger threat in the final third?
Chelsea and Manchester City both have a higher expected goals (xG) than the table-toppers so far this season. They have also created more big chances. Is now the time for Arteta to set up Arsenal to take more risks?
Arsenal have won three of their last five meetings with Spurs. The last 13 north London derbies have also produced an average of 5.3 yellow cards per game, hinting Sunday’s encounter will be a chippy one.
Martin Zubimendi has been carded in matches against Chelsea and Liverpool and Sunderland. He will be directly against Xavi Simons whose dribbling could give the Spanish international a problem.
Zubimendi is 23/10 to have his name taken by the referee and is 10/11 to commit two or more fouls, which feels like good value considering Riccardo Calafiori is the only Arsenal player to have received more Premier League yellow cards this season.
No matter the outcome, a strong narrative will emerge for both teams involved. Arsenal will either be back on track or their bottling of the title race will continue. Spurs will either start the road to recovery under Tudor or their relegation worries will worsen.
The north London derby always matters, but this match could be season-defining.