Feb. 21, 2026, 10:49 p.m. CT
The Denver Nuggets (36-21) and Golden State Warriors (29-27) meet Sunday at Chase Center in San Francisco, California. Tip-off is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NBA odds around the Nuggets vs. Warriors odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 1-1
Denver won 129-104 at home Nov. 7 in the most recent meeting, cashing as a 9.5-point favorite as the Over (230.5) cashed. Golden State won 137-131 in OT as a 1-point favorite in San Francisco Oct. 23, also with the Over (233.5) coming in. Denver is 8-2 straight (SU) in the past 10 meetings since April 2, 2023, but Golden State is an impressive 6-3 against the spread (ATS) in the previous 9 meetings. The Under is 7-3 in the past 10 in the series, but the Over is 2-0 this season.
Denver routed the Portland Trail Blazers 157-103 as a 1-point underdog on the road Friday as the Over (240.5) cashed. Three-time NBA MVP C Nikola Jokic posted 32 points, 9 rebounds, 7 assists and 4 steals with 3 3-pointers, while G Jamal Murray was good for 25 points, 6 rebounds and 6 assists with a steal and 6 triples.
The Nuggets have managed to win just 3 times in the past 8 games, and they’re still just 1-3 ATS in the past 4 games despite the rout of Portland. The Over is 9-2 across the previous 11 outings.
Golden State was tripped up 121-110 at home against the Boston Celtics Thursday as a 5.5-point underdog. G De’Anthony Melton went for 18 points on 7-of-13 shooting, including 2-of-6 from behind the 3-point line. The Warriors have dropped 3 of the past 4 games, while going 0-4 ATS in the past 4 outings, 1-6 ATS in the past 7 outings and 3-9 ATS in the previous 12 contests. The Over has hit in 3 in a row.
Nuggets at Warriors odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 11:39 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Nuggets -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Warriors +165 (bet $100 to win $165)
- Against the spread: Nuggets -4.5 (-115) | Warriors +4.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 229.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Nuggets at Warriors key injuries
Nuggets
(Not yet submitted — below was for Friday’s game)
- G Tamar Bates (foot) out
- F Aaron Gordon (hamstring) out
- F Peyton Watson (hamstring) out
Warriors
- F Jimmy Butler III (knee) out
- G Seth Curry (back) out
- G Stephen Curry (knee) out
- C Kristaps Porzingis (knee) probable
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
Nuggets at Warriors picks and predictions
Prediction
Nuggets 116, Warriors 112
The Nuggets (-200) are just a little too expensive at nearly 2 times your potential return. My personal limit for a moneyline wager is -180. If you were to use a promo or boost, or toss Denver into a multi-leg parlay, that might be OK.
PASS.
The WARRIORS +4.5 (-105) are a solid play catching more than 2 buckets at home. While the Nuggets were impressive last time out against Portland, they’re still 1-3 ATS in the past 4 games, and 4-6 ATS in the past 10 outings. Golden State has covered 6 of the past 9 in this series, too, so take that into consideration.
The OVER 229.5 (-110) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play at best.
The Over has hit in both meetings this season, but with no Curry for the Dubs, the offense has struggled a bit, so be careful. The defense has struggled, too, though, allowing 126 and 121 points in the past 2 games, with the Over going 3-0 in the past 3 outings.
The Over-Under has split 2-2 in the past 4 games for the Nuggets, while the Over has cashed in 5 in a row on the road for Denver.
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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