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Blue Owl Capital is back in focus after its fair value estimate was trimmed from US$20.82 to US$17.47, a reset that narrows the modeled upside for the shares. That shift lines up with a wave of refreshed Wall Street research, where firms are lowering targets yet laying out a mix of confidence in certain growth drivers and concern around specific business and sentiment headwinds. Read on to see how these moving price targets fit into the broader story and how you can follow the evolving narrative around Blue Owl Capital.
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Raymond James is pushing back on the recent 9% share price drop, calling the move an overreaction to what it views as a misleading headline about OBDC II redemptions, and it keeps a Strong Buy rating in place.
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Raymond James also highlights that OBDC II represents a relatively small part of Blue Owl Capital’s roughly US$307b in AUM. It suggests this limits the impact of that specific issue on the broader business.
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Several firms that trimmed targets earlier in 2026, such as Barclays, Wolfe Research, Goldman Sachs, and Oppenheimer, still retain positive or Neutral stances on the shares. This signals that they see room for execution on the existing platform even with more conservative assumptions.
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UBS has moved from a US$18 target in early January to US$16.50 and then to US$12, pairing these cuts with a Neutral rating and commentary that Blue Owl Capital is likely to underperform broadly.
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Target reductions from firms like Barclays, Goldman Sachs, TD Cowen, Piper Sandler, Evercore ISI, Citizens, and JPMorgan point to a cautious reset on valuation and growth expectations, even where ratings remain Neutral or better.
Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there’s more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives!
We’ve flagged 4 risks for Blue Owl Capital. See which could impact your investment.
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Fair value trimmed from US$20.82 to US$17.47.
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Revenue growth assumption revised from 14.32% to 12.69%.
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Net profit margin assumption adjusted from 44.89% to 44.44%.
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Future P/E multiple moved from 11.76x to 9.74x.
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Discount rate adjusted from 8.51% to 8.32%.