Early winners and losers emerge as Trump revamps his tariff regime
President Trump is imposing 15% global duties for 150 days following the Supreme Court decision on Feb. 20 that struck down the ‘blanket’ tariffs at the center of his first year in office.
Many importers from nations that offered significant concessions to Trump over the past year — and reached lower tariff rates as a result — are set to see their rates increase. Meanwhile, those that Trump repeatedly slammed and sought to punish in the first 13 months of his second term are set for somewhat of a reprieve, for now at least.
Overall, the US tariff rate is set to decline, meaning most countries will see their rates fall, but the impact will vary dramatically from country to country.
The UK, Australia, and Italy are bracing for higher rates — and are already protesting — while top Trump foils like China, Brazil, and Canada are set to see their rates decline.
President Trump speaks during a press conference to discuss the Supreme Court’s ruling against a major part of his tariffs on Feb. 20. (Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images) ·MANDEL NGAN via Getty Images
As Capital Economics put it in an analysis of the situation for the UK, “this is something of an eff you,” but one that Trump has few options on as he implements new duties under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act.
“Section 122 explicitly notes that any tariff must be applied in a non-discriminatory manner,” the authors noted.
This current setup — set to take effect Tuesday — is likely to change rapidly, with more moves from the White House expected and the president himself showing no signs of backing down on tariffs.
He even pledged Monday morning in a series of Truth Social posts to use different tariff powers at his disposal to levy duties in a “much more powerful and obnoxious way” and threatened countries that might seek to “play games” now that his tariff authority has been limited.
Tariff rates on goods negotiated separately, such as steel, automobiles, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, critical minerals, and agricultural products, aren’t impacted by the Supreme Court’s decision and will remain in place.
The overall tariff burden on countries that export to the US is projected to decline following the recent moves.
The Tax Foundation estimates that the new 15% Section 122 tariffs will bring in about 70% of the revenue that would have been raised over the next five months under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 (IEEPA), which the high court ruled illegal.
The Yale Budget Lab calculated that the US’s overall average effective tariff rate was 16% prior to the ruling, then fell to 9.1% when IEEPA tariffs were struck down (while other sector-specific duties remained), and is now set to rise to 13.7% once the new global tariffs go into effect on Tuesday.
That lower overall rate does mean a majority of countries will see their effective rate fall. But nations that previously negotiated favorable deals are a notable exception as Trump moves — for now — to this “one size fits all” 15% rate.
The effect appears to be most pronounced in Europe and the UK, where tense talks produced lower rates in many instances.
Now, calculations from Global Trade Alert find that the UK’s overall tariff rate is expected to jump from 8.3% to 10.3% under the new landscape. Likewise, importers from the EU are also set for a rate jump, with France and Italy leading the way and set for increases of 1% or more.
President Trump and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Sharm El-Sheikh in October 2025. (Suzanne Plunkett/AFP via Getty Images) ·SUZANNE PLUNKETT via Getty Images
On the other side of the globe, Singapore, South Korea, and Japan are also facing tariff increases, according to the group, after striking deals of their own for lower rates that now appear to be up in the air.
The changes have already prompted protests.
The European Commission, which negotiates trade policy on behalf of the 27 EU member states, demanded in a new statement over the weekend that the US stick to the terms reached last year.
“A deal is a deal,” read the joint statement as it asked for “full clarity” from the White House. Bernd Lange, head of the European Parliament’s trade committee, suggested that ongoing work to ratify the previously negotiated trade deal be paused.
Other nations — including many that have dramatically clashed with Trump over the past year — are due for lower rates.
A major winner for the moment is China. Negotiations there have been the most fraught over the past year. But now Chinese importers are set to see a drop in overall rates from about 37% to 30%, according to Global Trade Alert.
Trump is scheduled to travel to China on March 31 for a three-day trip focused on tariffs and other issues between the world’s two largest economies.
President Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping greet each other at the Gimhae Air Base in Busan in October 2025. (Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images) ·ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS via Getty Images
Brazil also faced sky-high “emergency” tariffs that have now been struck down. That country’s rate will decrease by more than half, from about 26% to 12.8%.
Other nations that have had up-and-down talks with the US over the past year — such as India, Indonesia, and Vietnam — are all set for lower rates.
US neighbors Canada and Mexico will see a decrease after Trump’s tariffs levied on those two nations over fentanyl have now been erased.
Most goods traded in North America are already subject to low tariffs under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), so the immediate effect there may be limited. But it’s an intriguing subplot as Trump continues his war of words with Canada in particular.
Trump’s social media posting on Monday also notably included an AI-generated video celebrating the US men’s hockey team’s gold medal victory over Canada at the Olympics, depicting Trump himself scoring a goal.
The video also featured the president punching a Canadian skater in the face and then smiling happily from the penalty box.
Ben Werschkul is a Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.
