NBA mock draft 2026: First-round update with regular season ending

The 2026 NBA Draft is so good that it’s causing a moral crisis. There are nine teams in the tank race at the moment, and most of them feel like they’re putting out losing lineups on purpose with about 25 games to play in the season. This lottery will have huge stakes, and not just because there’s three potential No. 1 caliber prospects in BYU’s AJ Dybantsa, Duke’s Cameron Boozer, and Kansas’ Darryn Peterson.

The Indiana Pacers could pull off the ideal gap year without Tyrese Haliburton by landing a premium young prospect … unless their pick lands outside the top-4, and then it goes to the Los Angeles Clippers in the Ivica Zubac trade. The Dallas Mavericks hit the lottery last year for Cooper Flagg, and now they need to land him a great teammate without control of their first-round pick from 2027-2030. The Utah Jazz better land in the top-8, otherwise their pick goes to the Oklahoma City Thunder.

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The 2026 NBA Draft lottery will happen on Sunday, May 10, and until then the league’s worst teams are jockeying for position to maximize their ping pong balls. Here’s our latest mock draft, with more analysis on this class after the table.

Let’s dive into the biggest themes from this class over the last few weeks.

Ranking Boozer, Peterson, and Dybantsa in the top-3

There’s some movement on my personal board since I published a mid-season update at the start of the month. Here’s how I’d rank the ‘big three’ of the 2026 NBA Draft:

1. Cameron Boozer, F, Duke: The simple case for Boozer over Peterson and Dybantsa is that he’s the most productive and most versatile of the three while also being the youngest. It’s no coincidence that Boozer’s teams have won at the highest level in every setting: he positively impacts the game in so many ways without taking much off the table. At 6’9, 250 pounds, he can initiate a pick-and-roll like a guard, set a mean screen and make plays on the short roll as a big, pound the offensive glass, punish switches on the drive with his strength, or rip a catch-and-shoot three from deep. It’s understandable to question Boozer’s athletic fluidity, ability to finish over length, or high-level defensive impact, but he’s solid enough in those areas while shining basically everywhere else. If Boozer doesn’t pass your “eye test,” then your eye test probably sucks. I’ve always thought Boozer vs. Cooper Flagg is a better question than Boozer vs. Dybantsa or Peterson, and that continues to be true as he nears the stretch run of his one-and-done season.

2. A.J. Dybantsa, F, BYU: Dybantsa has been third on my board since the summer, but his strong Feb. combined with Peterson’s poor performance in conference play has elevated him to No. 2 for me for the first time. The BYU freshman is the prototypical big wing scorer NBA teams covet with a rare mix of length (7’1 wingspan), fluidity, and explosion. Dybantsa is a gifted driver with tight handles, impressive bend to turn the corner against defenders, and crazy stride length. His three-point volume has been underwhelming thus far, but otherwise he’s the total package as a scorer. I’m a bit skeptical of Dybantsa’s ability to impact the game in areas other than scoring. His playmaking has been surprisingly impressive thus far, but I wonder if some of that is due to BYU’s pristine system. His defense has been subpar, he’s only average as a rebounder, and he can have turnover problems. Ultimately, Dybantsa feels a clear step ahead of similar prospects like Brandon Miller and Ace Bailey in recent drafts because he’s more well-rounded as a scorer, but I wouldn’t put him in the Cooper Flagg/Jayson Tatum tier because he’s not as good at doing the dirty work.

3. Darryn Peterson, G, Kansas: Peterson washed Dybantsa at a high school level, and was so impressive as a senior that I briefly considered putting him over Boozer. The best version of Peterson would be a special guard prospect who can efficiently play a high-usage on-ball role while also being a knockdown shooter as an off-ball threat zooming around screens while also making a big impact defensively. The problem is that we haven’t seen Peterson’s best all year because of a bizarre set of injury issues that have limited his explosiveness at both ends. Peterson just isn’t getting into the paint off the bounce or jumping the passing lanes like he was expected to, but to his credit he’s still been a high-volume scorer on good efficiency. His shot-making has looked better than expected at Kansas, and if you believe his hamstring strain and cramping eventually resolve themselves, there’s still a case for him at No. 1. Peterson appeared to be the mainstream favorite to go No. 1 entering the year. Are we overreacting to a small sample by an injured player by dropping him to No. 3? It takes a leap of faith and heavy reliance on prior production to put Peterson over Boozer and Dybantsa, and I just don’t have the risk tolerance for that right now.

Mikel Brown Jr. makes it a strong top-6

Louisville freshman Mikel Brown Jr. has been considered a potential top-10 pick dating back to preseason. Two things slowed his momentum earlier in the season: a) a pesky back injury that kept him sidelined for an eight-game stretch, and b) an extended shooting slump. For his first 12 games this season, Brown was only shooting 27 percent from three, which was way below where he was expected to be. Over his last eight games, Brown has now made 32-of-83 (38.5 percent), which is more in line with his reputation.