There were plenty of goals in the Premier League last weekend but not much movement in the relegation battle. All-but-relegated Wolves kicked off the matchday 28 games with a memorable 2-0 win against Aston Villa, but the teams above them (Burnley, West Ham, Nottingham Forest, Tottenham Hotspur and Leeds United) all lost.
That just ramps up the pressure ahead of a midweek round of games. Here is where an increasingly-tense relegation battle stands before matchday 29.
Burnley
Burnley, on 19 points, have at least given their supporters something to hold on to. Four points from trips to Crystal Palace and Chelsea lifted spirits, and the 4-3 defeat at home to Brentford on Saturday, while crushing in its conclusion, showed a side now willing to fight for everything.
The result stings, but the fightback should give them confidence to carry forward. They were close, and they kept knocking. Zian Flemming, the 27-year-old Dutch forward, has been Burnley’s brightest spark — six of his seven goals this campaign have come away from home.
They began the season as strong favourites to go down, and the recruitment has not matched that of the other promoted sides. The underlying numbers confirm it: Burnley have produced fewer shots, fewer shots on target and a lower xG than any team in the division, while conceding the most shots, the most shots on target and the highest xG against. Scott Parker has coaxed more structure, but this squad has looked short of Premier League quality from the start, even after a 100-point promotion campaign.
Both Wolves and Burnley look close to gone. But neither are pushovers any longer, and with fixtures against Forest, Leeds and each other still to come, they could yet have a decisive say in who joins them.
West Ham United
West Ham, 18th on 25 points, started the new year with momentum. They are now winless in three, but the underlying work has not collapsed. Since their 2-1 defeat to Nottingham Forest on matchday 22, West Ham have picked up 11 points, with their only losses coming against Chelsea and Liverpool. The results against better sides have hurt, but the performances have been unrecognisable from those earlier in the season.
The step forward was most visible in the 0-0 draw at Bournemouth, where West Ham controlled long stretches and finished with 20 shots, their most in a league match this season, creating 3.3 xG against a side on a six-game unbeaten run. Even without three points, the control was clear evidence that Nuno’s methods are taking hold.
Jarrod Bowen applauds the West Ham fans after the defeat at Anfield (Dan Mullan/Getty Images)
The 5-2 defeat to Liverpool was heavy, though West Ham created the higher xG in the match, with individual displays offering encouragement despite the scoreline. Liverpool’s first three goals all came from corners, a structural weakness Nuno appeared to have been addressing until it was exposed again at Anfield. Across the campaign, West Ham have conceded 15 from corners alone, a league high, and 21 from set plays in total.
Intriguingly, all four of West Ham’s shots on target, and both goals, came in the second half. That is atypical. West Ham have been a first-half side all season, scoring 56 per cent of their goals before the break, second only to Manchester City on 58 per cent, with a league-high nine arriving in the opening 15 minutes. After half-time, the picture inverts. They have conceded 33 second-half goals, the most in the division, and no side has dropped more points from winning positions, with 20.
The most encouraging development has been Mateus Fernandes. Since January 6, among midfielders at the six clubs featured in this piece, only Forest’s Elliot Anderson ranks ahead of him for successful passes, passes into the final third, touches and duels won. He has become integral.
Their road to safety remains the hardest in the bottom five. Manchester City and Arsenal still visit, and West Ham have trips to Aston Villa, Brentford and Newcastle. Leeds come on the final day, a fixture that could decide everything.
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest began this season off the back of their best league finish since 1995, ending last year seventh on 65 points. Now they sit 17th on 27 points from 28 games, two points above West Ham.
Owner Evangelos Marinakis has again turned to upheaval. Forest are on their fourth manager of the campaign, a precarious way to run a club in a relegation fight.
Vitor Pereira, the latest appointment, arrived with survival pedigree but after a dismal spell at Wolves. He has shifted Forest to a back four from the back three he favoured at Molineux. The new-manager bounce lasted one match: a 3-0 win at Fenerbahce that sent Forest into the next European round, where they face FC Midtjylland.
In the league, the points have not followed. The narrow defeat to Liverpool was decided by a stoppage-time Alexis Mac Allister strike. Against Brighton, all three goals in the 2-1 defeat arrived inside the opening 15 minutes, and Forest never recovered, looking toothless for the remainder. Pereira is still searching for his best XI, and midweek European football is visibly taking its toll.
The deeper issue is the attack. Forest have failed to score in 13 of their 28 league games, second only to Wolves. Since their trip to Elland Road on February 8, they have scored once from an xG of 4.54 — that’s one goal from 66 shots, with only 16 on target. It is the lowest conversion rate in the division. Chris Wood’s return cannot come soon enough.
The run-in offers little relief, and European involvement will only compound the strain. Forest still have to travel to both Manchester clubs, Tottenham and Chelsea, and have only one remaining fixture against a side below them: Burnley.
Chris Wood has not featured for Forest since the autumn (Stu Forster/Getty Images)
Tottenham Hotspur
Tottenham being dragged into a relegation fight, four points above West Ham, is as alarming as it sounds. They are one of the Premier League era’s ever-present clubs and last season’s Europa League winners, yet their level has been sliding for more than a year.
Since the start of last season, only Wolves have lost more league games, and Spurs have dropped more points from winning positions than any side in that period, 40. The slump has carried into 2026. Spurs are winless in 10 league matches, only the second time in their history they have gone that long without a Premier League victory, after a run under Osvaldo Ardiles between January and March 1994. They have lost their last four, have not kept a clean sheet in 10 league games, and remain the only side without a Premier League win this calendar year.
Since beating Crystal Palace on December 28, Spurs have taken 12 points from 19 league games. Injuries have been a significant factor, with around 11 players unavailable, although Cristian Romero is expected back after the next match, and Destiny Udogie and Kulusevski should return later in March.
Igor Tudor has shifted away from his preferred three-at-the-back system, which Thomas Frank used only three times this season, switching to a back four against Fulham — an adaptation to personnel rather than a statement of intent.
The performance was alarming. Spurs managed one shot on target, their average positions narrow and congested, almost entirely devoid of width. Without runners in wide areas, there were no overloads, no effective link-up between midfield and attack. Off the ball, the problems were equally stark. disjointed press, players looking uncertain of what to do, and Fulham’s attackers exploited the gaps in a defensive block that offered little resistance.
Opta’s supercomputer gives Spurs a 5.02 per cent chance of relegation, still remote, but the performances suggest that number may yet climb.
Last season, a clear bottom three were cast adrift. This time, the table is more volatile, and what seemed implausible three weeks ago now feels increasingly real. Champions League involvement adds congestion — a knockout tie against Atletico Madrid awaits — but the league run-in is comparatively forgiving. Crystal Palace, the last side Spurs beat, visit on Thursday, and direct games against Nottingham Forest, Leeds and Wolves will determine whether Spurs steady or sink.
Leeds United
Leeds, six points clear of West Ham, have looked steadier and more coherent since Daniel Farke switched to a back three in late 2025. He has given them the discipline a survival season demands. Leeds have lost just three of their last 14 league matches, but draws are keeping them tethered to the pack.
Since December, no side has drawn more, with eight. The underlying numbers point to a mid-table side, yet the outcomes have wobbled. Leeds have dropped nine points from winning positions since the new year, second only to Crystal Palace on 11. Away from Elland Road, Leeds have one win all season and nine points from their travels. Only Wolves, without a single away victory, have a worse record on the road. Seventy-one per cent of Leeds’ points have come at home, the highest share in the division.
Their summer additions skewed towards physicality and defensive sturdiness, and Leeds have become rugged and, relative to the clubs around them, low-drama. That could be an edge in a tight run-in, especially with no European schedule to juggle. Home games against Wolves and Burnley, plus direct meetings with Forest, Spurs and West Ham, give them a clear route to the mid-30s and safety.