The ongoing war in the Middle East involving Iran is prompting a more cautious approach to Greece’s anticipated minimum wage increase for 2026, with estimates now pointing to a modest rise that would bring the gross monthly minimum wage to around €920 (or €915–€920 in some projections), rather than a more aggressive jump.
Current minimum wage stands at €880 gross per month. The government, led by Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, had previously committed to reaching €950 by 2027 as part of broader goals to boost average wages to €1,500. Earlier discussions suggested a potential acceleration toward that target sooner, but escalating geopolitical tensions—particularly disruptions to global energy supplies, surging oil and fuel prices (with reports of petrol hitting €1.80 in some areas), and inflationary pressures—are forcing policymakers to prioritize economic stability for businesses, especially SMEs facing higher operating costs.
The announcement on the new minimum wage level is expected by the end of March 2026, with implementation likely from April 1, 2026. This would represent an increase of roughly €40 (about 4–4.5%), aligning with recent consultations and institutional forecasts that favor moderation amid external shocks. The conflict’s duration remains a key variable, as prolonged instability could further strain supply chains, inflation, and growth, according to warnings from officials like Finance Minister Kyriakos Pierrakakis.
On the labor front, a positive development emerges with the signing of Greece’s first major sector-wide collective bargaining agreement under the new legal framework (Law 5278/2026 and the 2026–2030 Action Plan for promoting collective agreements). The deal covers the confectionery industry, affecting approximately 2,000 businesses and 23,000 workers nationwide. It provides for cumulative wage increases exceeding 20% by the end of 2028, preserves existing allowances, and includes a 20% premium for highly skilled technical roles.
Backed by major unions (including GSEE) and employer organizations, the agreement becomes binding across the entire sector due to national-level involvement. This is seen as a potential catalyst for reviving sectoral bargaining in other long-dormant industries, such as food services, metal manufacturing, insurance, shipping, and travel agencies—aligning with EU directives to expand coverage and strengthen worker protections.
While the minimum wage adjustment reflects caution in the face of war-driven economic headwinds, the confectionery deal highlights progress in labor reforms that could deliver more sustained gains for segments of the workforce. The government continues to monitor the situation closely, balancing support for incomes with safeguards against broader inflationary and competitive risks.