At this point, it feels like a foregone conclusion that the Charlotte Hornets will make the playoffs. They are 2.5 games back of the sixth seed, and they’re all but assured to get a shot in the Play-In Tournament.
If they make it, there’s a good chance they’ll draw a really unfortunate first-round matchup. Still, the Hornets are poised to make some noise and could be a potential upset waiting to happen based on a few things.
Proven ability to win
The Hornets not only can beat pretty much any team, but they have beaten pretty much every team. Aside from the Detroit Pistons, whom they narrowly lost to and have a rematch with, the Hornets have big wins over a ton of title contenders:
- Toronto Raptors by 25
- Cleveland Cavaliers by 8
- Oklahoma City Thunder by 27
- Los Angeles Lakers by 18
- Denver Nuggets by 23
- Philadelphia 76ers by 37
- San Antonio Spurs by 5
- Houston Rockets by 10
- Boston Celtics by 29
Several of these games were on the road, too, so the Hornets can beat anyone anywhere. That doesn’t mean they will, but no team is going to feel too confident facing even an eighth-seeded Hornets squad.
Depth
For the first time in forever, the Hornets have legitimate NBA depth. Not only that, but they have pretty good players on their bench. Sometimes, those players rest for injuries on back-to-backs, but the games are spaced out in the playoffs.
Grant Williams leads the team (excluding Coby White and Antonio Reeves, who have a handful of minutes with the Hornets) in net rating. Josh Green is second. White has been fantastic. Sion James has a 1.3 net rating. There are real contributors off the bench that make it hard for a team to take advantage of the bench against the Hornets.
House money
The Hornets have no expectations. They are playing with house money here, much like the Carolina Panthers in the NFL playoffs, and they nearly beat the Los Angeles Rams. Anything can happen, and the Hornets have zero expectations or pressure.
That doesn’t always matter in a seven-game series, but it can allow the Hornets to play free and put a scare into some of the best teams in the Eastern Conference.
Underlying metrics
Since January 1, the Hornets have the best net rating of any NBA team. They’ve won 16 out of their last 19. They have five wins in a row of 15 or more points, something that hasn’t been done since the 2017-18 Golden State Warriors.
Put simply, every possible metric suggests this team is legit. They’ll get a dubious matchup if they make the playoffs, but the metrics indicate that this is a team that is capable of making some noise.