Greece’s defense spending and ambitions – GIS Reports

As the world faces unprecedented tumult and disruption, some European countries are beefing up defense to meet the challenge. Greece is one of them.

It is impossible to appreciate current Greek politics without having a clear picture of what happened to the country following the 2008 global financial crisis. Beginning in the United States and shaking Europe, the crisis left Greece as its most affected victim due to many prior years of corruption, tax evasion and poor management of public finances.

Since 2009, Athens has had to enact significant austerity measures to tame public debt and face the lack of confidence from investors, especially foreign ones. The country only emerged from a 10-year financial crisis in 2018, subsequently managing to sell its first 30-year bond in 2021.

Despite these great economic difficulties, Greece, a member of NATO, the European Union and eurozone, is on an improving fiscal track, and several ratings agencies have recently upgraded their outlooks for Greece. The country remains a nation of strategic importance in the Eastern Mediterranean. Its thousands of islands are not only tourist destinations; they are also a source of continuous friction with NATO ally Turkey since the Treaty of Sevres, signed in 1920, when the Dodecanese Islands – once Turkish but in Italian hands since 1912 – definitively passed to Greece.

In recent years Greek leadership has been convinced of the need for defense investments. 

Between the two NATO allies there are conflicting energy claims, maritime interests and ongoing naval military exercises. In recent years Greek leadership has been convinced of the need for defense investments. This has especially been the case since the 2015-2016 migration crisis, which saw continuous flows of economic- and conflict-generated migration from Africa and the Middle East, and Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine and associated conflict on the Black Sea. Such outlays are also seen as playing a primary role in Mediterranean foreign policy.

In this regard, Athens has turned not only to long-standing regional partners such as Cyprus, Italy, Spain and France, but also to Israel. And amid this new political activism, Greece has become part of the East Mediterranean Gas Forum, created in 2019, with the participation of Egypt, Israel, the Palestinian National Authority, Cyprus, Italy, Jordan and France, with observers from the U.S., EU and World Bank Group.

Geography is destiny

When analyzing Greece’s strategies, its geopolitical and geographical peculiarities − conferred by a constellation of islands scattered between the Ionian and Aegean Seas that must be protected − are helpful to remember. These facts of geography help explain why Greece is among the top European countries in defense spending, particularly in terms of percentage of its gross domestic product (GDP). In 2023, Athens invested 3.23 percent of its GDP into security, ranking second only after Poland at 4.1 percent. Greece has maintained the trend for several years now (in 2021, for example, it reached a 3.86 percent of its GDP in defense).

These figures demonstrate Greece’s commitment to surpassing NATO’s current investment requirement of 2 percent of GDP and contrast to other NATO countries’ security outlays. In 2024, Italy spent 1.5 percent, while Turkey, France and Germany all spent just north of 2 percent. These considerations loom large when viewed in light of new demands from American President Donald Trump. The U.S. president recently asserted that NATO members should raise spending on defense to 5 percent of their GDP, although even the U.S. itself, which spent 3.4 percent on defense in 2024, falls well short of Mr. Trump’s new aims.

A new plan for a new defense strategy

In March 2025, Greece’s defense ministry announced a new plan to invest 28 billion euros in defense over 12 years. The plan is based on four principal pillars. The first is to modernize the equipment of land, air and sea forces through the acquisition of new technologies and weapon systems. Second is increasing operational efficiency both internally, through joint forces training, and externally, through joint international drills. The third pillar focuses on advanced exercises and improvement in digital services. Finally, it calls for investing in the defense of critical infrastructures and hybrid security.

This strategy includes acquiring advanced technology systems, such as 20 fifth-generation F-35 fighter jets, and developing the 2.8 billion-euro Achilles’ Shield project (also known as Tholos), a comprehensive air, missile and anti-drone defense system.

Greek Defense Minister Nikos Dendias has promised the Greek parliament that “by the summer we will present to you the legislation for the new military service, the new reserve, the new National Guard and the voluntary conscription of women.” Greece’s investments are not only in modernization through advanced technology; they are also an investment in human resources.

In this plan, which is part of the broader UN 2030 Agenda, the Greek Navy will play a central role, especially with a view to addressing and containing threats in the Mediterranean. The Greek naval focus aims to match Turkey’s Mavi Tan (Blue Homeland) doctrine, which also aims to shield its mainland by shifting focus from land-based forces to a larger maritime presence in seas around the NATO member state. In its most recent military exercise, in January 2025, Turkey deployed 77 surface ships, seven submarines, 31 aircraft, 17 helicopters, 28 unmanned aerial vehicles and seven unmanned surface vehicles.

These impressive numbers should be interpreted not only from a military point of view, but also from a political one. They reinforce a series of agreements that Ankara has signed since 2019 with other Mediterranean powers, such as with Libya through a memorandum of understanding. The deal stirred significant debate at the time and highlights unresolved tensions between Greece and Turkey regarding disputed Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs), sovereignty over some islands in the Aegean Sea such as Cyprus, and the management of migratory flows to Europe from the Middle East and North Africa.

To keep pace and bolster its position in the alliance, Athens is making large investments for the modernization of four MEKO-class frigates and seven Vosper missile launchers. Negotiations are also being finalized with France for a fourth Belharra-class frigate, as well as with the U.S. for Constellation-class frigates and the construction of latest-generation submarines.

Greece: An increasingly European outpost?

In 2017, the EU Council of Ministers launched the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO), which represents a sort of legal framework for improving strategic coordination and military capabilities through collaborative projects. Its members – EU states − are required to increase their national defense budgets; Greece is at the forefront.

Read more by military and counterinsurgency expert Federica Saini Fasanotti 

The aim is to significantly improve the security-related performance of individual member states, with a view to making participating countries increasingly autonomous, and to be reliable NATO partners as applicable. Athens believes this will deter contrasting regional ambitions of third countries and protect Greek territorial possessions, though it is unclear if the steps will lead to a resolution of conflicting claims of sovereignty over contested EEZs.

Contact us today for tailored geopolitical insights and industry-specific advisory services.