French President Emmanuel Macron (left) meets Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides (center) and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis (right) as part of a visit focused on supporting Cyprus after recent drone attacks amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, and strengthening European coordination in the region, in Paphos, Cyprus, on Monday, March 9, 2026. [Gonzalo Fuentes/Pool via Reuters]
The first days of the Middle East’s latest war suggest that the clash will not be over quickly, that it will cause much turbulence in every country’s political and economic life.
The steep rise in energy prices, the shortages of oil, gas and many other products, including fertilizers, will have immediate impact on all sectors, from agriculture to transportation. There will be problems in supply chains and distribution networks, with shortages and high prices. Political uncertainty in the wider Middle East will translate into new tensions within countries and in their relations with each other, and, most likely, in new refugee flows. The Iranian regime seems to have the resources to remain in power, to strike targets far from the country’s borders, to obstruct shipping in the region. On the other hand, Donald Trump’s demand of Tehran’s “unconditional surrender” does not leave room for third party mediation and compromise. Although nothing can be ruled out (given the little reliable information as to what is happening within Iran and in the areas that it has attacked) the most likely scenario is that the war will last long enough to provoke crises in many countries, if not the whole planet. An additional problem is that the United Nations cannot play a role in easing the tension, as neither the United States nor Russia would allow it to intervene decisively. Both permanent members of the Security Council have made clear their disdain for the institution and international law.
The rest of the world is consigned to watching developments that will shape its economic and political fate. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney remarked a few weeks ago on the need for “middle powers” to join forces to increase their chances of dealing with this difficult new world. The military action by Greece and France in support of Cyprus shows a more immediate and substantial way of dealing with today’s dangers. “Whoever attacks Cyprus, attacks all Europe,” French President Emmanuel Macron declared on Paphos Monday. The three EU member-states’ determination to defend the territory of the EU’s easternmost part shows the need for such actions, as well as the potential of a European security system. The quick show of solidarity and operational readiness by three member-states of varying size and defense capabilities is the beginning of a process that ought to be expanded to combine the resources of all EU members in a defense union. The system is developing. The combined action of France, Greece and Cyprus gives the initiative new impetus.