With time dwindling in the Olympic women’s ice hockey gold medal game on Feb. 19, players for Team USA and Team Canada lined up for a key faceoff in Canada’s end. Canada had a 1-0 lead. USA had 2:23 left, and an ace up their sleeve: analytics.
USA Coach John Wroblewski pulled the goalkeeper, to get a player advantage, and had forward Alex Carpenter take the faceoff. Statistics show that Carpenter is not only very good at winning faceoffs; she also wins a lot of them cleanly. That allows her team to quickly regain possession, without too many teammates nearby. Knowing that, Wroblewski directed the USA players to spread out, largely away from the faceoff circle, in position to circulate the puck as soon as they got it back.
Carpenter won the faceoff, and Team USA quickly started a passing move. Laila Edwards soon launched a shot that longtime star Hilary Knight deflected in for the crucial, game-tying goal with 2:04 left. Team USA then won in overtime. And data-driven decision-making had also won big; indeed, it helped change the Olympics.
“What it does for a coach, the other thing these analytics do, is … it allows you to move forward with this confidence level,” Wroblewski said on Saturday at the 20th annual MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference (SSAC), during a hockey analytics panel where he detailed his decision-making for that faceoff, and in the gold medal game generally.
Using the data, he added, lets coaches “limit the emotion” that might cloud their in-game decisions.
“By the time you get to that decision, you’re then allowed the freedom to step away from the decision, to allow the players to go earn their medal,” Wroblewski added.
You don’t usually find coaches divulging their tactical secrets just three weeks after a big game has been played. But then, this is the MIT Sloan conference, a trailblazing forum that has helped analytics ideas spread throughout sports. Coaches, players, and analysts know any data-driven discussion will find an interested audience.
“Analytics was massive for us going into the gold medal game,” Wroblewski said.
20 years on: From classrooms to convention halls
The 20th edition of SSAC was a strong one, with many substantive panel discussions and interviews; the annual research paper, hackathon, and case study contests; mentorship events and informal networking opportunities; and more. Over 2,500 people attended the two-day event, held at Boston’s Menino Conference and Exhibition Center (MCEC). The conference was founded in 2007 by Daryl Morey, now president of basketball operations for the NBA Philadelphia 76ers, and Jessica Gelman, now CEO of the Kraft Analytics Group.
The first three editions of the conference were held on the MIT campus. In 2010, it first moved to the MCEC (one of two regular convention-center sites it uses), and starting in 2011, the conference became a two-day event.
Today people attend for the panels, the career opportunities, and, in some cases, to make news. NBA Commissioner Adam Silver was on hand this year, engaging in an on-stage conversation with former WNBA great Sue Bird, publicly addressing some of the key issues facing his league, and drawing wide media coverage.
First, though, Silver reflected about attending the second edition of the conference on the MIT campus in 2008, when he was deputy commissioner.
“It was literally a classroom of 20 people we were talking to,” Silver recalled. “I think it was the beginning of the moment when people were taking sports as a discipline more seriously. … I give Jessica and Daryl a lot of credit [for that].”
Addressing tanking and gambling
A core part of Silver’s comments focused on two big issues in pro basketball: tanking and gambling. About eight NBA teams appear to be tanking this season, that is, losing games in order to increase their chances of getting a high draft pick.
“We are going to make substantial changes for next year,” Silver said, although he also added: “I am an incrementalist. I think we’ve got to be a little bit careful about how huge a change we make at once. I’m not ruling anything out. But I am paying attention to that.”
To be sure, tanking has long been a part of professional basketball, as Bird noted during the conversation.
“We did it in Seattle, to be honest,” Bird said. “Breanna Stewart was coming out of college. We were in a ‘rebuild.’”
Still, in this NBA season, tanking has become an epidemic, in “a little bit of a perfect storm,” as Silver put it on Friday. And almost every proposed solution seems to have drawbacks. Perhaps the simplest cure for tanking, actually, would be robust analytical studies showing that it is not a very effective team-building strategy. If that is what the numbers reveal, of course.
Meanwhile, multiple arrests of NBA players and coaches at the beginning of the season show further that sports gambling continues to present challenges to professional sports leagues.
“I personally think there should be more regulation now, not less,” Silver said on Friday, suggesting that federal rules would simplify things in the U.S., where 39 states allow sports gambling to some extent. He also said the NBA can continue to work on monitoring data to protect against gambling scandals.
“I think there are some large-platform companies are that are looking at a business opportunity to come in and in a much more sophisticated way work as a detection service with the league,” Silver said.
Through it all, Silver said, the NBA will continue to be a data-driven operation. Have you watched a game with a long instant-replay review, and gotten a little impatient? Still, have you kept watching that game? So does almost everyone.
“For years people would tell us, ‘Don’t use instant replay, because you’ll turn fans off,’” Silver said. However, he added, “The data suggests, in terms of ratings and what servers tell us, you almost never lose a fan when you’re going to replay. Because they want to see the replay and they want to see what happened.”
The minnows got big
Sports analytics took root in baseball, with its discrete pitcher-hitter actions. Legendary MLB general manager Branch Rickey employed a statistician for the great Brooklyn Dodgers of the 1950s; the famous manager Earl Weaver thought analytically with the Baltimore Orioles in the 1970s. Baseball analyst Bill James made sports analytics a viable pursuit with his annual “Baseball Abstract” bestsellers in the 1980s, and Michael Lewis’ “Moneyball” popularized it.
But data can be applied to all sports — and sometimes is most valuable when only some teams are interested in it. Take soccer. In the English Premier League, about three clubs have been heavily oriented around analytics over the last decade: Liverpool FC, Brighton FC, and Brentford FC. That has helped Liverpool win multiple titles, while Brighton and Brentford, smaller clubs, have startled many with their success.
Saturday at SSAC, Brentford’s majority owner Matthew Benham made one of his most visible public appearances, in an onstage interview with podcaster Roger Bennett. Benham first made money wagering on soccer, then invested in Brentford, his childhood club.
“The information we used in the early days was really, really rudimentary,” Benham said. In his account, his success building an analytics-based club has only partly been about the numbers.
“A lot of the success has just been in running things efficiently.” Benham said. He prefers to have management discussions that are an “exchange of views, rather than debate,” since the latter implies an interaction with a clear winner and loser. Instead, compiling independent-minded views from his executives is more important.
Brentford also uses “a combination of old-style scouting and data” for its player acquisition decisions, Benham said. Not every decision works. Brentford could have signed current Arsenal FC star Eberechi Eze for a mere $4 million pounds in 2019, and passed; Crystal Palace FC acquired Eze, then realized a windfall when Arsenal purchased his services.
Still, pressed by Bennett to specify a little more about his analytical thinking, Benham implied that strikers are valuable not only for their finishing skills, but for consistently getting open for shots on goal. Fans tend to focus too much on a player’s misses, rather than how many chances are created by their off-ball work.
“Getting in position is way, way more informative than finishing,” Benham said.
A similar insight seems to have guided Liverpool’s thinking. As it happens, a Friday panel at SSAC featured Ian Graham, who ran Liverpool’s analytics operations from 2012 to 2023, and weighed in on a number of subjects. Among other things, Graham noted, teams are too cautious when tied late in a match; soccer grants three points for a win, one for a draw, and zero for a loss, so from a tied position, the reward for winning is twice as great as the penalty for losing.
“Teams don’t go for it enough,” Graham said. “Teams think a draw is an okay result.”
The limits of knowledge
Sports, of course, are ultimately played by imperfect, injury-prone, and sometimes exhausted athletes. One consistent lesson from the MIT Sloan conference involves the limits of data and plans.
“We think the data is giving us an answer, when actually it’s giving us some information, and we still have to make a choice,” said Ariana Andonian, vice president of player personnel for the Philadelphia 76ers, during a basketball panel on Saturday.
Asked about the promise of artificial intelligence for sports analytics, Sonia Raman, head coach of the WNBA’s Seattle Storm, noted that its insights might always be limited by circumstances.
“It’s not like you can just get an AI report in the middle of the game that says, ‘Get some shooting in,’” said Raman, who, prior to coaching in the WNBA and NBA served for 12 years as head coach of the MIT women’s basketball team.
“You can have a great plan, but if it’s poorly executed, it’s way worse than a poor plan that’s well executed,” added Steven Adams, a center for the NBA’s Houston Rockets (who is currently not playing due to injury), during the same panel.
And yet, in some games and matches, the analytics do work, the plans do come to fruition, and the numbers do make a difference. When that happens, as John Wroblewski can now attest, the results are golden.