(Bloomberg) — Gold advanced after a report that the International Energy Agency is proposing the largest-ever release of oil reserves to ease a supply shock caused by the war in the Middle East.
Bullion pushed above $5,200 an ounce, having gained 1% in the previous session. The IEA proposal, which was reported by the Wall Street Journal, envisages a release in excess of the 182 million barrels that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Crude prices gave up earlier gains, while a gauge of the US dollar slipped as much as 0.1%.
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As the US-Israeli war in Iran entered its 12th day, investors were also digesting conflicting messages from American officials. The White House said the US had not escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, contradicting a now-deleted social media post by Energy Secretary Chris Wright. Shipping has all but stopped through the waterway that’s typically a conduit for a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas.
For gold, the extreme volatility in energy prices has increased concerns over inflation, in turn reducing expectations that the Federal Reserve and other central banks will be able to cut interest rates. Higher borrowing costs are a headwind for precious metals, which don’t pay interest. Bullion — which has gained around a fifth this year — is also a source of liquidity used by investors to shore up other parts of their portfolios.
The metal “struggled somewhat under the weight of US dollar strength and falling US equities last week, with gold being sold to cover equity margin calls,” said David Wilson, director of commodities strategy at BNP Paribas SA. “Physical gold interest, particularly in Asia, provided a backstop at around $5,000 an ounce.”
Since war broke out, the volume of gold held by exchange-traded funds has declined. Total holdings fell by nearly 30 tons last week, marking the biggest weekly selloff in more than two years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
But the precious metal has also found some support as a haven asset during a period of geopolitical and trade upheaval. “Overall, I think it’s worth buying gold on weakness,” said Alexandre Carrier, portfolio manager at the DNCA Invest Strategic Resources fund.
Meanwhile, the war continues to disrupt crude production and refining across the Middle East. The US and Israel conducted their most intense day of attacks yet against Iran and won’t give up until the Islamic Republic is beaten, the Pentagon said on Tuesday, striking a more aggressive tone after President Donald Trump’s earlier indication that the conflict could end soon.