NBA fans have been paying very close attention to this draft because of three names in particular: Darryn Peterson, Cam Boozer, and AJ Dybantsa, with the occasional Big Board having UNC’s Caleb Wilson thrown in the mix. Rightly so; all four of them have had incredible seasons, but juuuuuust outside of all of that hype there are a few guys who have had really great seasons in their own right.
Playing in the Big 12 (which is widely regarded as the third best basketball league in the world) is no small feat. Playing on a team in the Big 12 that has winning culture and finished 2nd in the Big 12 standings is also no small feat, but to do all of that AND lead that team in scoring as a true Freshman seems impossible… but here we are. Kingston Flemings has demonstrated that he does have the ability to be great at the next level, but will he? Let’s talk numbers.
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Tale of the Tape
Team: Houston Cougars
Position: Guard
Height: 6’4”
Weight: 190 lbs
Counting Stats: 16.5 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 5.4 APG, 1.5 SPG, 48.3/37.6/84.8 shooting splits
Hardware: First-Team All-Big 12, Big 12 All-Freshman Team
Triumphs
What cannot possibly be denied is his ability to put the ball in the hoop. He scored 27 against TCU, he scored 22 against a juggernaut in Iowa State, and he had a career high 42 against Texas Tech. He’s also a great facilitator as he was fifth in the Big 12 for assists per game and the ONLY Freshman in the Big 12 to average more than 5 a game.
His shooting percentages should be mentioned as well; not everyone can come in at 18/19 years old and shoot 37% from deep, albeit on limited attempts per game. His defensive metrics can’t be overlooked either: in the Big 12 he ranks 5th in Defensive Win Shares (2.3), 3rd in defensive box plus/minus (5.8), and 14th in defensive rating (97.4).
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His other highly coveted skill is his ability to be THE engine of a team. He finished the Big 12 regular season with a Usage Percentage of 26.3% so he had the ball in his hands all the time. While constantly having the ball could lead to a high turnover rate, that isn’t the case with Flemings as he has a 2.8 assist/turnover ratio. He finished 16th in Big 12 Offensive Rating (124.3), 11th in Points Produced Per Game (16.8), and 7th in Offensive Box Plus/Minus (6.8). There is quite literally nothing that he can’t do on the basketball court. However…
Shortcomings
Flemings does have one fatal flaw in my opinion, and that is his consistency. While he does have the ability to go off for 40, he also has multiple single digit scoring games this year including 7 against Cincinnati in 30 minutes, 4 against Utah in 29 minutes, and a grotesque 1 point against Notre Dame in 22 minutes earlier in the year. His field goal percentage also fluctuates: for every 60% game on high shot volume, he has a 15% on similar attempts. For every hyper efficient game on limited attempts he also has a 0-4 night.
Something that I’m also concerned about is his frame at the pro level. He’s 6’4” which is a decent height, but with the NBA is shifting to taller ball handlers (or allowing your Center to be the playmaker in the case of Nikola Jokic and Alperen Sengun), the “smaller” guard is becoming more of a novelty. There are exceptions, obviously: Payton Pritchard is 6’1” and Steph Curry is 6’3” but the a huge difference between those two and Flemings is my other concern which is his weight. He’s listed at 190 lbs but he is a skinny 190. I do want to give credit where credit is due; he put on 10 lbs of muscle prior to the start of the season, so this is something that he is aware he needs to work on, but I think that early in his career his frame will hinder him from being as physical as he needs to be in the NBA.
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Is He Worth The Pick?
I think that I approach drafts and draft picks a little differently than most. In my view scouting is both very difficult and kind of a crapshoot. I made a video over a year ago detailing how rare it is to find a superstar in any one draft. In my view the draft kind of goes like this…
Picks 1-3: You are expecting a future superstar
Picks 4-14: You are expecting a high production role player
Picks 15-60: You are PRAYING for a role player
There are obvious outliers in that framing as Giannis and Jokic come to mind, but for the most part if you can secure a lottery pick and they turn into a solid role player you have to count it as a win. When you don’t have a chance to select a consensus “top guy” in the draft you’re best suited to select a positional need.
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I think that Kingston Flemings has the ability to be really good in this league one day. He can put the ball in the hoop, he is a more than capable defender, and he has shown the ability to be the engine for a team. For the Utah Jazz specifically? I’m not sure that the juice is worth the squeeze.
I don’t think that he’s a great roster fit for us at this stage in our development. Keyonte George is on track to win the Most Improved Player Award and his playmaking ability has taken a huge leap. Isaiah Collier, while mostly playing a backup role, has also shown great strides in his playmaking. With two above-average playmaking guards on the team I’m not sure that having another one would be super beneficial. Now, I’m higher on Collier than most (I even bought a Collier jersey to celebrate me becoming a contributor to this great site and community) so I’m willing to entertain the idea of moving on from Collier to get a guy like Flemings but if we end up with the 5th pick in the NBA Draft, and we truly feel like we need to get another do-it-all guard, I think that there is at least one better option at our disposal (be on the lookout for that piece soon).
We’re also in the middle of a contentious Tankathon against the Pacers, Wizards, Kings, Nets, and Pelicans right now, and I think that Flemings could benefit the most from going to a team like the Nets; a team that isn’t going to compete in the immediate future and can allow someone like Kingston the time and grace needed to adjust to the NBA game. After the moves the Jazz made this Trade Deadline Season it’s clear that the front office is tired of being at the bottom of the standings and they’re ready to start competing for potential Playoff spots. I’m not sure that we’ll be in the business of drafting a guard that will have this much of a learning curve at the start of their career.
If I’m wrong, I’m wrong. If we wake up in 6 years and Flemings is an All-Star already I’ll eat my words, but now that it seems like we’re trying to take steps forward instead of laterally I think that we’d be better off selecting someone else with that potential pick, selecting a truly needed archetype like a volume 3 point shooting wing, or to trade the pick and get even more assets as Trader Danny is prone to do.
Where do you land on Flemings? How do you think Houston will do in March Madness? Sound off in the comments!
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