This one should be very close, with limited risks taken on both sides. Lille is a team that heavily relies on defense and clean sheets to win. The French side has allowed only five goals in the last five games and scored six.
I expect a conservative approach against Aston Villa again, especially since the English side enters this tie as a strong favorite to progress. That’s a bit generous, given recent performances, though. Villa has three defeats and a draw in the last four games in all competitions.
After overperforming all advanced attacking metrics for most of the season, the team is regressing to the mean and struggling to deliver goals consistently. More worryingly, the defense has been a big problem.
Aston Villa allowed eleven goals in the last three, so Unai Emery needs to find solutions. The Spanish manager knows well that you can’t win the Europa League without a solid defense, so I expect him to focus on that for the Lille match.
Both sides will be unwilling to take too many risks early on, so I expect very little action in the opening half. The -120 for under 1 goal before the interval is one of the Europa League best bets today since it offers an insurance in case one of the teams does score.