Saturday, March 14

I Ran the Numbers for 2026. The Winner Isn’t Who You’d Expect


  • Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) gained 12% year-to-date with a 3.39% dividend yield and 10.61% average annual dividend growth over 10 years, outperforming Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM) at 2.35% yield and iShares Core Dividend Growth ETF (DGRO) at 7.49% three-year dividend growth. SCHD holds only 9% in tech stocks versus significant tech exposure in VYM and DGRO, with 21% allocation to energy, 17% to consumer defensive, and 16% to healthcare.

  • Capital is rotating away from speculative AI stocks toward defensive dividend stocks, positioning SCHD to lead dividend ETFs after trailing for three years.

  • The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks. Get them here FREE.

Tech and growth ETFs are constantly changing, and it’s hard to keep up with them. Even certain dividend ETFs have hitched themselves to tech stocks by using covered calls, and Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF (NYSEARCA:SCHD), Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index Fund ETF (NYSEARCA:VYM), and iShares Core Dividend Growth ETF (NYSEARCA:DGRO) remain among the only refuges.

When someone wants a normal dividend ETF they can buy, hold, and reinvest into for snowballing income, they often just want to buy the best one instead of holding multiple at once. 2026 has started off as a tumultuous year, so looking into this year’s performance is a good gauge for how these ETFs can perform in the long run.

Of course, the performance in just the past few months is not a good barometer for how they may perform in the future. We’ll also be looking into what the future holds for each of them.

READ: The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks

There’s no beating around the bush here. This ETF has been killing it in the past couple of months, and this will be quite surprising to you if you don’t keep up with the market. The Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF was one of the worst-performing dividend ETFs from 2022 to 2025. You barely got any capital gains, and the dividends you did get weren’t enough to put you ahead of the market.

Most other ETFs rode the coattails of AI, whereas SCHD had barely any tech names to speak of in its holdings. This set back the stock significantly, as non-AI stocks kept lagging.

2026 changed the equation significantly, and SCHD kicked off the year by massively outperforming peers. Investors are no longer blindly buying into any company that presents itself as an AI company. Wall Street is now extremely selective about the companies it believes deserve a premium, and for the first time in a while, capital is finally rotating to defensive and dividend stocks. This is SCHD’s niche, and I expect the ETF to ride a lot higher this year.



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