Q4 Rundown: Zillow (NASDAQ:ZG) Vs Other Consumer Discretionary
Looking back on consumer discretionary – real estate services stocks’ Q4 earnings, we examine this quarter’s best and worst performers, including Zillow (NASDAQ:ZG) and its peers.
The Consumer Discretionary sector, by definition, is made up of companies selling non-essential goods and services. When economic conditions deteriorate or tastes shift, consumers can easily cut back or eliminate these purchases. For long-term investors with five-year holding periods, this creates a structural challenge: the sector is inherently hit-driven, with low switching costs and fickle customers. As a result, only a handful of companies can reliably grow demand and compound earnings over long periods, which is why our bar is high and High Quality ratings are rare. Real estate services companies provide brokerage, property management, appraisal, and advisory services, earning transaction-based commissions and recurring management fees. Tailwinds include long-term housing demand driven by demographic growth, technology platforms that expand market access, and commercial real estate complexity that sustains advisory needs. Headwinds are pronounced: rising interest rates directly suppress transaction volumes by reducing housing affordability and commercial deal activity. Commission-rate compression, driven by discount brokerages and regulatory changes, erodes per-transaction revenue. The industry is highly cyclical, with revenue swings amplified by leverage. PropTech (property technology) disruptors threaten traditional intermediary models.
The 14 consumer discretionary – real estate services stocks we track reported a satisfactory Q4. As a group, revenues beat analysts’ consensus estimates by 4.1% while next quarter’s revenue guidance was 14.2% below.
Amidst this news, share prices of the companies have had a rough stretch. On average, they are down 6.1% since the latest earnings results.
Founded by Expedia co-founders Lloyd Frink and Rich Barton, Zillow (NASDAQ:ZG) is the leading U.S. online real estate marketplace.
Zillow reported revenues of $654 million, up 18.1% year on year. This print exceeded analysts’ expectations by 0.5%. Overall, it was a satisfactory quarter for the company with a solid beat of analysts’ adjusted operating income estimates but EPS in line with analysts’ estimates.
Zillow Total Revenue
The stock is down 14.4% since reporting and currently trades at $46.61.
Founded in Toronto, Canada in 2014, The Real Brokerage (NASDAQ:REAX) is a technology-driven real estate brokerage firm combining a tech-centric model with an agent-centric philosophy.
The Real Brokerage reported revenues of $505.1 million, up 44.1% year on year, outperforming analysts’ expectations by 7.6%. The business had an incredible quarter with a beat of analysts’ EPS estimates and a solid beat of analysts’ EBITDA estimates.
The Real Brokerage Total Revenue
The Real Brokerage scored the fastest revenue growth among its peers. Although it had a fine quarter compared its peers, the market seems unhappy with the results as the stock is down 7.5% since reporting. It currently trades at $2.54.
Founded in 2009, eXp World (NASDAQ:EXPI) is a real estate company known for its virtual, cloud-based approach to real estate brokerage.
eXp World reported revenues of $1.19 billion, up 8.5% year on year, exceeding analysts’ expectations by 2.6%. Still, it was a softer quarter as it posted a significant miss of analysts’ adjusted operating income estimates and a significant miss of analysts’ EBITDA estimates.
As expected, the stock is down 10.8% since the results and currently trades at $6.50.
Fueled by its mission to replace the “paper-driven, antiquated workflow” of buying a house, Compass (NYSE:COMP) is a digital-first company operating a residential real estate brokerage in the United States.
Compass reported revenues of $1.7 billion, up 23.1% year on year. This result topped analysts’ expectations by 1.8%. Zooming out, it was a mixed quarter as it also recorded a beat of analysts’ EPS estimates but a significant miss of analysts’ adjusted operating income estimates.
The stock is down 12.2% since reporting and currently trades at $8.78.
Founded in 1999 through the merger of Jones Lang Wootton and LaSalle Partners, JLL (NYSE:JLL) is a company specializing in real estate advisory and investment management services.
JLL reported revenues of $7.61 billion, up 11.7% year on year. This print surpassed analysts’ expectations by 1.3%. Overall, it was a very strong quarter as it also put up a beat of analysts’ EPS estimates and an impressive beat of analysts’ adjusted operating income estimates.
The stock is up 4.2% since reporting and currently trades at $298.99.
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