As trade pressure continues and geopolitical factors like inflation and consumer sentiment continue to shift, leading macro-economist and geopolitical finance expert Nomi Prins said the opportunity is there for seafood to emphasize itself as a value proposition.
Prins, a best-selling author that has been featured in publications such as the New York Times, Fortune, The Guardian, and more, returned to give the keynote address at the 2026 Seafood Expo North America – running from 15 to 17 March in Boston, Massachusetts, U.S.A.
Prins’ 2025 keynote predicted the headwinds for the seafood industry were strong, but the tailwinds were stronger for industry players that recognized seafood’s inherent strength among a highly uncertain world facing unknown tariff impacts and a fuzzy future for trade relationships. Her 2026 keynote, “Fork in the Current: The Economic and Trade Realities Shaping Seafood in 2026,” looked both at the evolution of that uncertainty and beyond it, offering insight into the choices the industry has – face the environment as an opportunity to tackle the complications head-on and recognize the current, or stay in the status quo and potentially lose out.
She said the global seafood industry has largely weathered the tariffs implemented by U.S. President Donald Trump in 2025, harkening back to an analogy she used in 2025 which compared the seafood industry to Ernest Hemmingway’s famous novel, “The Old Man and the Sea.” She said that story’s protagonist, Santiago, much like the seafood industry, experienced a lot of waves over his life which prepared him for his harrowing saga at sea which left him battered and bereft of his catch – but also with his life intact.
“I think that’s really what we saw with respect to tariffs,” Prins said. “The impact is very disheartening in the beginning, and these ones had much more uncertainty attached to them and also rose after I was here [at SENA 2025], but they ultimately evened out.”
The 20 February Supreme Court decision ended up proving Prins’ analogy accurate, as the uncertainty and tariffs that caused the turmoil went back to square one.
Prins said the next step in those initial International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs is to process refunds, which will take time but ultimately will be refunded.
The new uncertainty for seafood in terms of tariffs is the Trump administration’s latest promises to implement flat 10 percent tariffs globally, and its push to use a variety of mechanisms like Section 301, Section 122, and other legal avenues. Prins said that these attempts will ultimately be minor and won’t move the needle on seafood trade a great deal due to the limited authority Trump now has to impose tariffs.
“It’s not going to be anywhere near as onerous as it could have been,” Prins said.
Prins said her keynote address had to change in recent days after the U.S. launched strikes on Iran, starting a war in the Middle East that has quickly disrupted global trade routes and caused fuel prices to increase. Prins said this, too, will likely have a lower impact in the middle-term.
She said historical precedent exists for spikes in fuel prices related to geopolitical conflicts, and the price tends to stabilize.
“Oil in general tends to stabilize when there’s been an acute war in one region, the last time it didn’t stabilize was in 1973 when we had an oil embargo from the Middle East,” Prins said.
The difference is that at that time, the U.S. sourced over half of its oil from that region, compared to the 9 or 10 percent that it sources now.
Because of that, she predicted oil will gradually return to lower levels.
“Oil is ultimately a diversified supply chain. It’s just that right now it has a choke point situation, which I think ultimately will dissipate,” Prins said.
Even if oil increases in price, that increase is a level playing field across all markets which means even if seafood is impacted it will be in the same boat as every other product.
Prins said the seafood industry will still be positioned well even if there’s price increases, as there is a difference between price and value. Consumers are increasingly associating seafood with several value propositions – provenance and health benefits, for example – meaning even if it’s more expensive than another product consumers may still see it as a better value.
Convenience is also a part of that value proposition, as a consumer may gravitate toward a product that saves them time.
“Value has become a sort of multi-parameter component of the consumer base, particularly in the United States, particularly concerned about inflation,” Prins said.
Prins said the consumer has shown a willingness to embrace those higher prices if they see the value is there, and that is the opportunity that seafood should choose to capitalize on in 2026.
“Seafood is something that needs to be marketed, and I think that’s accelerating,” she said.
The fork in the current she referenced in the keynote is that moment where companies can decide whether to recognize and capitalize on the value they offer and gain market share, or if they pick a status quo strategy that leaves them largely where they were before the tariff turmoil began.
“There is a real opportunity now, I think, in 2026,” Prins. “Here, net of oil prices, the industry has kind of repositioned. Now it’s a question of really leveraging that new positioning.”