There’s no guarantee the Premier League will have a single representative in the quarter-finals of this season’s Champions League after what happened last week.
Arsenal and Newcastle United still have a chance — and a strong one in Arsenal’s case — of making the final eight after drawing their last-16 first legs, but Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur all face an uphill task to progress.
The Athletic runs through the chances of a comeback from the four Premier League teams in need of one to make the Champions League quarter-finals.
Chelsea vs Paris Saint-Germain
Stamford Bridge, Tuesday March 17, 8pm GMT
Chelsea had reason to feel aggrieved by last week’s first-leg defeat to Paris Saint-Germain. Had it not been for a Filip Jorgensen mistake and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia getting hot in the final few minutes, Chelsea might have left France with a positive result.
Indeed, Chelsea had the higher expected goals (xG) at the Parc des Princes. Their lack of clinical edge in front of goal cost them and could be a factor again in tonight’s rematch.
Having scored 11 goals in his last 14 appearances, Joao Pedro could be a threat and is 6/5 to find the back of the net against PSG. The Brazilian forward will surely have opportunities against a PSG defence that has kept just two clean sheets in 11 Champions League fixtures.
At 15/2, Chelsea are a long shot to mount a comeback to make the final eight, but their Club World Cup final victory over PSG gives them some hope.
Manchester City vs Real Madrid
Etihad Stadium, Tuesday March 17, 8pm GMT
A Federico Valverde hat-trick gave Real Madrid a comfortable 3-0 win over Manchester City at the Santiago Bernabeu, putting Pep Guardiola’s team on the brink of an early Champions League exit.
City are 16/5 to overcome last week’s humbling and their record of two or more goals in five of their last six home matches against Real Madrid in all competitions suggests this tie might not be over.
Federico Valverde scores his team’s third goal (Oscar del Pozo / AFP via Getty Images)
Guardiola’s side struggled for attacking firepower in Sunday’s disappointing draw against West Ham, but a shift away from the 4-2-2-2 formation could provide Erling Haaland with better service.
Rayan Cherki could start and Haaland is priced at 4/1 to score a goal assisted by the French international. City need their best attackers to find top form when it matters most on Tuesday evening.
Liverpool vs Galatasaray
Anfield, Wednesday March 18, 8pm GMT
Of all the English teams tasked with a comeback to make the quarter-finals of the Champions League, Liverpool surely stand the best chance of actually pulling one one.
Arne Slot’s side are only one goal behind after losing to Galatasaray in Istanbul last week, but must find a much higher level of performance to get the better of the Turkish champions. Wednesday’s match will be one of the most important of Liverpool’s entire season.
Liverpool have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five matches, explaining why both teams to score is as short as 8/13. Galatasaray can expect to have opportunities.
Slot must find a way to squeeze more out of an attack that struggled against Tottenham on Sunday. Mohamed Salah will surely be restored to the line-up with the Egyptian 4/9 to score or assist for the home outfit.
Tottenham Hotspur vs Atletico Madrid
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Wednesday March 18, 8pm GMT
Even by the standard of Tottenham’s catastrophic season so far, last week’s defeat to Atletico Madrid was a new low; 3-0 down after just 15 minutes of the first leg, it’s remarkable there is any life left in the tie.
Spurs are 14/1 to recover from the 5-2 defeat in the Spanish capital to make the quarter-finals, highlighting just how unlikely that scenario seems for a team that hasn’t won a match in the last eight attempts in all competitions.
Spurs are unbeaten in their last 24 home matches in UEFA competitions, but they have the worst home record in the Premier League this season. Another bad defeat could turn the home atmosphere toxic again.
Igor Tudor could re-use the 4-4-2 shape that made Tottenham tougher to play through against Liverpool at Anfield, but they require something more ambitious than that to make up a three-goal deficit against Atleti.