Housing Finance Watch
2026 Week 11 (March 7 – March 13)
Median purchase rate remained effectively constant at 6% in week 11. This is within 1/8th of a ppt. of the lowest median note rate in 3 and a half years and down 1.625 ppts. from the series peak in week 43, 2023. Mortgage News Daily reports an avg. 30-year rate of 6.36% on March 16th, exhibiting a clear upward trend over the last couple days.
Purchase rate lock volume remains muted, likely due to affordability challenges. It was down 14% from week 11 in 2019 but up 34% YoY.** Whether this signals momentum for the spring or just a temporary blip remains to be seen.
Cash-out rate lock volume remains muted, down 37% from week 11 in 2019 but up 28% YoY.**
No cash-out rate lock volume up 57% from week 11 in 2019**, and up 133% YoY, as lower rates provide an option to refinance. While no cash-out loans remain below their pandemic era surge, they have at times, as now, exhibited mini-booms. This loan type is responsive to sudden, albeit modest downward rate moves.
Active listings up 6% YoY and down 19% from week 11 in 2019**. We believe that months’ supply growth will follow seasonal trends, rather than exceeding them. As a result, YoY HPA could be somewhat stronger than previously forecast. HPA growth is expected to be 0 to +1% for December 2026 (YoY).
Preliminary YoY HPA: 1.5% in January 2026 and projected at 1.4%, 1.6%, and 1.2% for Feb. 2026, Mar. 2026, and the first week of Apr. 2026, respectively. Inflation-adjusted HPA remained negative in January 2026, coming in at -0.9% (YoY).***
Projected YoY HPA based on recent locks has continued to slow. In the first week of April, projected YoY HPA of 1.2% is well below April 2025’s YoY HPA of 2.8% and likely negative in real terms, largely due to subdued purchase activity, relatively high rates and inventory, and a diminishing pool of well-qualified entry-level buyers. A reading of 1.2% would be the lowest April value and the lowest overall value of YoY HPA since AEI began tracking in 2013.
* Week 11 represents projected loan originations (based on expected closing date) through April 8th, 2026.
** We compare to 2020 for weeks 1–10, and 2019 for weeks 11–52, as these are the most recent YoY weeks pre-pandemic.
*** All other HPA figures in this infographic are nominal. Due to the government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics did not collect data on October 2025 prices. We averaged the CPI index values for September and November 2025 to create a CPI index value for October 2025.
**** Weekly listings data use a 7-day average. We benchmarked HousingWire active listings count to Realtor.com data prior to 2020. Data are for Single-Family homes, Condos and Townhomes combined.
Note: Rate locks are limited to lenders who joined ICE Dec. 2018 or earlier.
Source: ICE, HousingWire and AEI Housing Center, www.aei.org/housing.