DENVER — If you think about the Philadelphia 76ers’ current ceiling or floor at this point of the season, your answer may not be much of an answer at all.
And it’s not because there isn’t a clear path for the Sixers from this point. But it is partially because it’s difficult to predict what that path will consist of. If you could promise them a healthy Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and Paul George, you could probably have a better grasp of their postseason potential. Likewise for promising the Sixers some measure of continuity and consistency.
If you’ve followed Philadelphia this season, though, the problem with all of this is a bit obvious. The above variables have been fleeting. And, as of Tuesday night’s blowout loss to the Denver Nuggets, the Sixers are without four of their five intended starters. On one hand, their challenges have made for some interesting talk amid a roller-coaster season that might have even more twists and turns down the stretch. On the other hand, the 76ers are currently 37-32 and have gone the majority of the season without having a full roster.
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On multiple levels, the hope of more exists. On multiple levels, the malaise of it all has been frustrating for a fan base that’s begging for a consistent winner. Through it all, Philadelphia remains one of the Eastern Conference’s most volatile and confusing teams.
For the purpose of breaking this down, here is what we know: The 76ers are fighting for top-six placement in the East, which would mean an automatic playoff berth. They are currently in ninth place, but the margin between the ninth and fifth is exceptionally thin. So, for the purpose of this thought exercise, let’s break down what the Sixers’ best- and worst-case scenario for the rest of the regular season. As an added bonus, we can examine a possible worst-case that still has optimism.
Best-case scenario
Part of this involves the obvious health storyline that’s dogged this franchise for years. And part of it relies on a combination of luck and a little bit of strategy.
The 76ers are five games above the .500 mark. And they are competitive despite largely playing without a full roster. That being said, luck hasn’t been on their side when thinking about the remainder of the East. To put it plainly, the conference is competitive this season, and it’s 10 teams deep. If this were last season, the Sixers would be in a better position in the standings. This season, they are on the outside looking in.
So, what how does Philly’s best-case scenario look?
Embiid should be back in uniform in short order, and maybe even by Thursday night against the lowly Sacramento Kings. Kelly Oubre Jr. could also be back soon. George will return from his 25-game suspension next week against the Chicago Bulls.
But it’s not about simply getting healthy. The Sixers must stay healthy down the stretch. They have to forge some continuity with each other. And then, they have to be playing their best basketball of the regular season heading into the postseason, but their schedule features some very winnable games.
Philadelphia still has the Kings, Utah Jazz, Bulls, Washington Wizards, Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks left to play. They need to win all six of those to guarantee at least 43 wins before tackling the more difficult part of their remaining schedule. And, if they are healthy and whole, they should be able to find a way to win some of those.
This means a 46- or even a 47-win season is somehow not out of the question. And, if the Sixers get to 47-35, that will give them at least a fighting chance to get into that top-six mix. Even without doing that, though, Philadelphia needs to stay in the seventh or eighth spot. That would mean the Sixers need to win only one game in order to get into the playoffs, thanks to the Play-In Tournament.
At best case, let’s say they are in the sixth spot. Their best first-round matchup would be the New York Knicks. Even without home-court advantage, the Sixers would have the top-end talent and ability to win that series. The beauty of the Sixers at full strength is their ability to enter almost any series with at least a puncher’s chance.
Worst-case scenario
Let’s start with the obvious here as well.
Somehow, the 76ers can’t quite get healthy, and their issues with availability seep into the remainder of the regular season and into the playoffs. As Tuesday night showed, without being healthy, this Sixers team will have trouble beating any good team. And speaking of the playoffs, in this scenario, the Sixers don’t handle their business in the six winnable games remaining on the schedule. They actually drop one — or even a few — of them. They also come up largely short against the tougher part of the remaining schedule — this includes games at the Charlotte Hornets, Miami Heat, Houston Rockets, San Antonio Spurs, Minnesota Timberwolves and Detroit Pistons.
As easy as the winnable part of the schedule is, the difficult portion matches energy. There isn’t a middle ground for the Sixers. And that’s why they need to be healthy. So, let’s say the Sixers come up with only six more wins this season instead of 10. That puts them at 43-39 and puts them in real danger of being in the ninth or 10th spot of the Eastern Conference.
That means they’d have to win two games to qualify for the playoffs, and their seeding ceiling is capped at eighth. And that almost certainly means a date with the Pistons or Celtics. Or it means missing the playoffs altogether and handing the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder a lottery pick.
This scenario is arguably more disappointing than last season’s 24-58 finish. Why? Because last season was lost early. There was little hope beyond the first three weeks. One thing wrong led to another, and another and another, and things simply didn’t work. More importantly, last season at least led to the Sixers finding VJ Edgecombe, who has turned into a foundational piece in his rookie season. This worst-case scenario is just missing the postseason with nothing left to show for it. And that would hurt far more. There was hope this season. Maxey was playing at an incredibly high level. George was finding a rhythm as a high-powered role player. And Embiid showed he still has it. But in this scenario, it would all be for naught.
If this happens, the Sixers will have to question their organization’s very foundation. Hard questions would have to be asked and answered. And it would be interesting to see what kind of direction Philadelphia goes into.
Alternative direction
This is what hasn’t been discussed in bulk.
The worst-case scenario happens: the playoffs are missed before hard questions are raised to be answered. But then … the 76ers find a bunch of luck and move up into a top-four slot in the draft lottery. And since their pick is protected 1-4, they’d get to keep it. Suddenly, they get the third pick in the NBA Draft, and they get Cameron Boozer, the power forward out of Duke. That gives them another foundational piece on a rookie contract to work with, and the Sixers don’t have to worry about how to land another dynamic talent on a roster that’s financially hamstrung.
But that’s difficult to ask for, for so many reasons. The odds wouldn’t be with Philadelphia at all, in terms of retaining that pick. And even if the Sixers did retain the pick, they are going to get dragged from the time their season ends until the night of the lottery. That’s going to be a lot of dragging. And who knows what will happen in that time frame.
It is an alternative scenario, though, one that could bring about something positive from the ashes should the Sixers’ season go up in smoke and their worst-case scenario came to fruition.