We’re at the business end of the Champions League, with the eight quarter-finalists now decided.
It’s a heavyweight line-up, with four of the competition’s five most successful clubs still in the tournament, plus last year’s winners Paris Saint-Germain and Premier League leaders Arsenal.
Real Madrid (15), Liverpool (six), Bayern Munich (six) and Barcelona (five) have won 32 of the 70 European Cup/Champions League trophies between them since Madrid lifted the first trophy back in 1956, but who has their name on this year’s trophy?
Here, The Athletic takes a look at the quarter-final bracket to assess how the land lies and predicts the teams most likely to go through.
Paris Saint-Germain versus Liverpool
A repeat of last year’s brilliant last-16 tie, which was unusual in that both teams won away from home. Liverpool were absolutely battered by PSG in Paris, but thanks to Alisson’s goalkeeping heroics and then a late goal from current Aston Villa reserve Harvey Elliott, they escaped with a 1-0 win.
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However, in the return leg at Anfield, it was Gianluigi Donnarumma’s turn to play hero, with Ousmane Dembele’s early goal taking the match all the way to penalties. The Italian keeper then saved twice in the shootout to send PSG through.
Both clubs strolled to their domestic titles in 2024-25 but it’s a different story this year, with Liverpool badly struggling for consistency or form in fifth place and Ligue 1 leaders PSG being pushed hard by Lens, who are just a point behind them.
What to expect from this tie, then? Well, you just don’t know with Liverpool — they got their act together on Wednesday with a purposeful, high-tempo display that could have seen them get near to double figures were it not for Galatasaray goalkeeper Ugurcan Cakir. But when pressed by better opponents, they can look one-paced, flat and extremely suspect defensively.
PSG are not quite at the level of last year’s triumph yet, but were at least a couple of classes above Chelsea in their utterly dominant 8-2 aggregate win, which hinted they are coming to the boil at the right time again. Ousmane Dembele, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Bradley Barcola and Desire Doue represent one of the world’s most fearsome strikeforces.
Winner: Logic dictates that Liverpool are too inconsistent to beat PSG over two legs.
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is part of a fearsome front line for PSG (Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)
Real Madrid versus Bayern Munich
Oh boy. The European ‘Clasico’, the most-played fixture in the history of the Champions League/European Cup and a quarter-final to salivate over.
Two of the very biggest and best European football clubs have surprisingly never met in the final, but since 2000 alone, this will be the 11th time they have faced off in a Champions League knockout tie (six semi-finals, three quarter-finals and two round-of-16 ties).
Their rivalry dates back to the 1970s and reached a violent peak in 1987 when Madrid midfielder Juanito stamped on Lothar Matthaus’ head and was banned from European football for five years.
Since then, less stamping, but no less drama, with their last meeting in 2024 a typical example of a Madrid-Munich encounter. After a 2-2 draw in the first leg in Germany, Bayern were 1-0 up and heading to the final with just two minutes left on the clock thanks to Alphonso Davies’ goal.
Enter Joselu, Madrid’s striker on loan from Espanyol, who scored twice in two minutes to turn the tie on its head in incomprehensible style.
Vincent Kompany’s Bayern are in imperious form, nine clear in the Bundesliga, they finished second in the group stage and have just shellacked Atalanta 10-2. Harry Kane, Luis Diaz and Michael Olise up front? Yep, they’re good and will be slight favourites here.
But… there’s always a but with Madrid. This may not be a classic Madrid team, but with Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Junior, they can never be discounted.
Winner: Instincts say Bayern, but then you remember it’s Real Madrid in the Champions League. Penalties? Too tough to call.
Barcelona versus Atletico Madrid
Well, it won’t be 0-0. Great entertainers Barcelona have already scored 124 goals in all competitions this season, averaging 2.7 goals per game, and they humdingered Newcastle 7-2 on Wednesday for an 8-3 aggregate win.
Lamine Yamal is pretty much the most watchable, exciting player in world football and in Raphinha, Robert Lewandowski and a supporting cast of Marcus Rashford, Dani Olmo, Ferran Torres and Fermin Lopes, backed up by string-pullers Pedri and the returning Gavi, Barcelona are a neutral’s dream.
However, we could have written this last year too, when Barca were ultra attacking, but so fragile defensively, and ultimately that was what cost them a place in the final when they were edged out 7-6 on aggregate by Inter Milan in a genuine ‘for the ages’ semi-final.
We haven’t said this about Diego Simeone’s Atletico too often in the past, but it’s rarely dull with the Rojiblancos at the moment either, certainly not when they play Barcelona; there were 18 goals in four games between the sides last season. In 2025-26, Barca have won 3-1 and 3-0 at home, but lost 4-0 at the Metropolitano in the Copa del Rey semi-final first leg.
A 7-5 aggregate win over Tottenham Hotspur in the last 16 wasn’t as comfortable as it should have been despite Spurs’ obvious shortcomings, and Atletico will need to move up a level if they’re to seriously trouble Barcelona. Simeone’s team are in the quarter-finals for the eighth time since 2014, but haven’t reached the semis in nine years.
Winner: Barcelona’s defensive shortcomings may hinder their chances of winning the tournament, but they should overcome Atletico fairly comfortably.
Barcelona celebrate after their win over Newcastle (Alex Caparros/Getty Images)
Sporting CP versus Arsenal
These are two clubs looking to win the tournament for the first time, and there is no doubt that, of the eight remaining sides, this is the easiest draw Arsenal could have landed.
Sporting have a good, attack-minded side, and Primeira Liga top scorer Luis Suarez (the Colombian one) and tricky forwards Pedro Goncalves and Francisco Trincao can cause problems, although Chelsea’s incoming wonderkid Geovany Quenda is injured and captain Morten Hjulmand is suspended for the first leg. Arsenal should have more than enough.
Sporting are in unknown territory, reaching the quarter-finals for the first time in the Champions League current guise (they reached the last eight of the old European Cup in 1982-83), having just experienced one of the best European nights in their history.
To beat Bodo/Glimt 5-0 at home wouldn’t have been considered much of an achievement a few months ago, but to overturn a 3-0 deficit against a team that had beaten Atletico Madrid, Inter and Manchester City in 2026 was seriously impressive.
Arsenal supporters will have bad memories of losing to Sporting on penalties in the last 16 of the Europa League three years ago, although they thrashed them 5-1 in Lisbon during last year’s group stage.
However, Arsenal are rightly among the main favourites to win this season’s Champions League, with their relentless ability to grind out results meaning they remain in contention for four trophies heading into this weekend’s Carabao Cup final.
They are probably the hardest team to beat left in the competition.
Winner: If they avoid defeat in the first leg in Lisbon, it’s hard to see how Arsenal don’t win this.