Global travel demand shifts toward Mediterranean destinations as geopolitical tensions reshape traveller preferences. Photo source: Unsplash
Rising tensions in the Middle East are reshaping short-term global travel demand, with several Southern Mediterranean destinations – including Greece – recording gains as interest declines across parts of the Gulf, according to new Mabrian data.
The analysis, based on international flight searches for travel over the next three months, shows that while Greece is among the destinations benefiting from the shift, it is not among the primary drivers of growth.
Greece among beneficiaries, but not leading the shift
Greece recorded a 0.75 percent share of global travel demand, with a modest increase of 0.05 percentage points compared to the same period last year.
By contrast, Spain led the shift with a 2.99 percent share and a 0.38-point increase, followed by Italy (2.62 percent, +0.23) and Egypt, which posted the strongest growth among key destinations (+0.47), reaching a 2.14 percent share.
France and Morocco also recorded gains, while Türkiye showed a decline of 0.5 percentage points.
The findings suggest that Greece is part of a broader group of Southern Mediterranean destinations capturing redirected demand, rather than a standout beneficiary.
Demand weakens across Gulf destinations
At the same time, demand for several Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries declined notably following the escalation of conflict.
International travel demand to Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries over the next three months, based on flight searches, showing declines across most destinations, led by the United Arab Emirates.
The United Arab Emirates, while still the largest market in the region with a 3.18 percent share, recorded a drop of 1.6 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain also saw declines, while Oman registered a more moderate decrease.
Saudi Arabia was the only exception, posting a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points, partly attributed to seasonal factors linked to the end of Ramadan.
Safety perception shapes traveller behaviour
According to Mabrian, shifts in travel demand are closely tied to changing perceptions of safety in the region.
“The decisive role of safety perception in shaping traveller confidence” has intensified since the outbreak of the conflict, said Carlos Cendra, Marketing and Communications Director at Mabrian, noting that this indicator “has continued to deteriorate among GCC countries”.
Perception of Security Index across GCC countries following the launch of military operations in Iran, showing more stable trends in the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and greater volatility in Oman, Bahrain and Kuwait.
The data also points to a spillover effect, with nearby destinations such as Türkiye and Egypt affected by shifting perceptions. However, Egypt is showing a more positive trend overall, reflected in both safety indicators and travel intention.
Within the Gulf, safety perception remains more stable in the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, while Oman, Bahrain and Kuwait show greater volatility.
Search data signals trends, not bookings
The analysis is based on Mabrian’s Share of Searches Index, which tracks international flight searches as an early indicator of travel demand.
While the data highlights a clear short-term reallocation of travel interest, it does not necessarily translate into confirmed bookings, leaving open whether these trends will carry through into actual travel flows during the upcoming spring and summer season.
As Cendra notes, the conflict is acting as “a major disruptor of tourism dynamics”, reinforcing the importance of real-time data in helping destinations and companies adapt to rapidly changing conditions.
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