Each week, we’ll check in on where I think the NBA’s major individual awards races stand. This week, we’re focusing on Most Improved Player, which, like MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, All-NBA and All-Defense honors, falls under the league’s 65-game requirement.
Here’s how the Awards Watch shakes out: Since 2019, I have been one of the media members selected to vote on the annual awards. It’s an honor that I take very seriously, as I strive to select the players I believe are most deserving. With it being public, I also don’t want to end up getting meme’d to eternity for casting a ridiculous vote. This analysis is a pretty good gauge of my thoughts/research and those opinions submitted by other writers and readers of The Athletic.
As is the case with all rankings and opinions on the internet, I’m sure this will be met with agreements and handshakes rather than yelling and name-calling. If you have a differing opinion, drop those in the comments. Let’s just get this out of the way first:
- Yes, I watch the games.
- Yes, I have looked at the numbers.
- No, I don’t hate that player.
- No, I don’t hate that team.
- If you have a differing opinion and want to roast me, by all means, have at it. Just try to have a point that makes sense. I’m less interested in your bias toward your favorite player or team, but I am very interested in a possible perspective that I have missed or haven’t considered enough. I’m all about acquiring as much information and as many opinions as possible for these awards.
- With each award section, I’m going to give my criteria for how it should be considered, while taking my thoughts and what I feel the award has historically emphasized in voting into consideration.
- As I mentioned above, players who don’t get to 65 games in a season are not eligible for MVP, Defensive Player of the Year or Most Improved Player.
Let’s get into it. (BetMGM odds and stats are entering Wednesday’s games.)
Most Improved Player
Two honorable mentions: Ryan Rollins, Milwaukee Bucks | Jalen Duren, Detroit Pistons
3. Jalen Johnson, Atlanta Hawks (+275 to win)
2. Deni Avdija, Portland Trail Blazers (+500 to win, previously first)
1. Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Hawks (+1600 to win, previously not mentioned)
I’ve had Alexander-Walker as an honorable mention at times in the last couple of months, but he should be leading this race now.
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Duren is the betting favorite. Avdija turned himself into an All-Star. Johnson, Alexander-Walker’s teammate, has also furthered his improvement that started before his injury last season. What’s been tripping me up about Alexander-Walker is reflecting on his time with the Minnesota Timberwolves in previous seasons and seeing what an important role player he was. Now he’s in Atlanta and is an important role player there. Is there a difference?
Breaking down the improvement in numbers, there’s not just an increase in minutes. Alexander-Walker has truly taken a bigger role within this offense under Quin Snyder, and that’s where my blind spot was.
Let’s look at the stat changes for each of these top four, including Duren, from last season to this season:
- Johnson: 18.9 to 23.0 points, 10.0 to 10.4 rebounds, 5.0 to 8.1 assists and 50.0/31.2/74.6 to 49.5/35.1/78.2 shooting splits in 35.7 to 35.2 minutes.
- Duren: 11.8 to 19.0 points, 10.3 to 10.6 rebounds, 2.7 to 1.7 assists and 69.2/0.0/66.9 to 64.2/0.0/72.8 shooting splits in 26.1 to 27.8 minutes.
- Avdija: 16.9 to 24.0 points, 7.3 to 6.9 rebounds, 3.9 to 6.7 assists and 47.6/36.5/78.0 to 46.0/32.8/80.3 shooting splits in 30.0 to 33.4 minutes.
- Alexander-Walker: 9.4 to 20.3 points, 3.2 to 3.5 rebounds, 2.7 to 3.7 assists and 43.8/38.1/78.0 to 44.4/38.6/89.6 shooting splits in 25.3 to 33.3 minutes.
Alexander-Walker’s leap in scoring while becoming a more efficient player (especially when it comes to free-throw shooting) is massive. And his ability to help Johnson run Snyder’s offense was big in helping the Hawks, who have won 11 games in a row, feel comfortable moving on from Trae Young. That needed to happen for this franchise to move forward. Not to mention, Alexander-Walker is still an excellent defender, which was his primary role in Minnesota.
Johnson’s improvement in playmaking happened for two reasons. 1) He got better at it, and 2) Young’s absence left a void for someone to step into. Avdija is the wild card here because leaping from where he was a year ago to the All-Star this season is big. The efficiency dipped, but he also increased his playmaking because of necessity and the injuries to the Blazers’ backcourt. Everybody should end up playing 65 games and qualifying, although Avdija might be cutting it close (53 games with 13 to play entering Wednesday). Alexander-Walker is definitely as deserving as any of the other major candidates.
MVP
Five honorable mentions: Kevin Durant, Houston Rockets | Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers | Luka Dončić, Los Angeles Lakers | Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves | Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks
5. Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics (+15000 to win)
Brown and Dončić have the same odds to win MVP. Granted, those odds are astronomical, and neither player has a chance. But there’s still the matter of whether or not you end up on the final five-player ballot.
I’ve currently got Brown with the slight edge for a few reasons. 1) Brown has been obviously better on the defensive end. He’s one of the top defenders in the league, and Dončić … is not. That should matter in MVP voting. 2) Brown has helped the Celtics overcome a lot more to be the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference than the Lakers have had to overcome to be the third seed in the West. Yes, being in the East presents an easier path, but so many people had the Celtics potentially missing the playoffs before the season started. Brown’s play and leadership have made that ludicrous. Dončić definitely has the Lakers above expectations right now. He’s leading the league in scoring, and he’s been tremendous during the Lakers’ current push up the standings. But I don’t think it’s quite at the level of what Brown has done in Boston. And you can’t have both on the ballot because the next four guys have to be there.
4. Cade Cunningham, Pistons (+5000 to win)
The Pistons have lost a bit of their luster, winning only three of their last eight games. They’re probably not in any danger of losing the No. 1 seed in the East, and they have one of the easier schedules the rest of the way. I never really believed Cunningham had a chance at MVP, even with it being a “wouldn’t this be a quirky occurrence” type of topic a month ago, when people wondered who would even qualify for the award due to the 65-game rule. But finishing fourth in MVP voting with these three guys ahead of him is a remarkable accomplishment. Cunningham’s season has been awesome, and there shouldn’t be a single ballot excluding him.
3. Nikola Jokić Denver Nuggets (+1800 to win, previously third)
2. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs (+2000, previously second)
1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder (-1000 to win)
Team success is often a big indicator of how these awards might go, and peaking at the right time heading into the playoffs will always give a candidacy a boost. Unfortunately for Jokić and the Nuggets, they’re not peaking at all. They’ve been struggling lately, and Jokić doesn’t look completely like himself, despite the absurd numbers he’s putting up. I’m not sure that Wembanyama needs to be couched as “if Jokić doesn’t qualify” or something like that to be considered the second candidate for this award. Wembanyama has been ridiculous, and the Spurs are playing elite basketball. He and the Spurs are surging at the right time, but the betting odds have recently moved toward putting Jokić back over him for second-best odds.
Gilgeous-Alexander is primed to repeat as MVP, though. It’s not just the streak of regular-season 20-point games, which is the longest in history. His defense has been incredible, as it usually is. We saw in a recent win over Minnesota just how much he can make up for a bad shooting night by making plays on that end. That’s the norm. He’s not quite an All-Defense candidate, but he’s not far from it. And on top of that, he’s the most unstoppable scorer in the league and a good distributor. Gilgeous-Alexander’s presence is why the Thunder are as dominant as they are.
Rookie of the Year
Two honorable mentions: Ace Bailey, Utah Jazz | Derik Queen, New Orleans Pelicans
3. VJ Edgecombe, Philadelphia 76ers (+15000 to win)
2. Cooper Flagg, Dallas Mavericks (+160 to win)
1. Kon Knueppel, Charlotte Hornets (-210 to win)
I wouldn’t expect Knueppel to be the unanimous ROY. Plenty of people will think Flagg is still the pick, and I don’t think it’s an egregious opinion to hold. But the gulf of games between the Charlotte wing and Flagg, along with team success being a tiebreaker if you feel they’re still neck-and-neck, should lead to Knueppel being the winner. Flagg’s struggles since returning from his foot sprain don’t help his candidacy. In those eight games, Flagg is averaging 18.9 points on 18.5 shots with 7.0 rebounds, 6.4 assists and 1.4 blocks. Those are good averages, for sure. But his 41.2/20.8/80.0 shooting splits since his return are rough.
Kon Knueppel tries to drive past Sacramento’s DeMar DeRozan. (Ezra Shaw / Getty Images)
Defensive Player of the Year
Two honorable mentions: Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors | Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat
3. Rudy Gobert, Timberwolves (+8000 to win)
2. Chet Holmgren, Thunder (+1000 to win)
1. Wembanyama, Spurs (-2500 to win)
Wembanyama is running away with this award. The only thing in his way is eligibility. He’s played in 54 games, and the Spurs have 13 remaining. He can miss just two more games this season. Wembanyama didn’t win DPOY last year because deep vein thrombosis ended his season early. That opened the door for Cleveland’s Evan Mobley to win it, although I think it was a closer race than people would’ve admitted before Wemby’s absence. There just isn’t a defensive player on his level right now, and hitting 65 games is the only question about whether he’ll win this.
Sixth Man of the Year
Two honorable mentions: Tim Hardaway Jr., Nuggets | Naz Reid, Timberwolves
3. Reed Sheppard, Rockets (+425 to win)
2. Jaime Jaquez Jr., Heat (+200 to win, previously honorable mention)
1. Keldon Johnson, Spurs (+650 to win, previously first)
Jaquez is the new favorite in the betting odds, which I find interesting. Reid is still second at +300, but he’s been on such a cold streak lately that I’m not sure he can stay in the top three just by reputation. He’s had a really good year, but we’re looking at a month and a half of him not performing in the manner the Timberwolves need. Johnson has been the most consistent candidate, and he’s been excellent for the Spurs off the bench. Jaquez has been good all season, but he’s having a really good March. His efficiency has been there; he’s scoring over 15 points per game off the bench, and he’s really increased his playmaking. This should be a pretty tight race.
Coach of the Year
Two honorable mentions: Jordan Ott, Phoenix Suns | Charles Lee, Hornets
3. J.B. Bickerstaff, Pistons (-175 to win)
2. Mitch Johnson, Spurs (+900 to win)
1. Joe Mazzulla, Celtics (+175 to win)
No movement this week. Some believe Bickerstaff should win this (and the betting odds agree) because of the wire-to-wire lead in the East. It’s not necessarily a bad standard to have. But exceeding expectations the most usually plays a big role in winning this award. The Pistons weren’t picked to win the East, but the Cavs and Knicks not quite living up to expectations is part of the reason they’re up there. However, the Spurs and Celtics are second in their respective conferences. Nobody had them this high or this successful. I’d give the slight edge to Mazzulla still. He’s had a tougher road with the changes and cuts to the roster.
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