History Offers Clues on Cade Cunningham Return Timeline

Getty

Cade Cunningham of the Detroit Pistons reacts after a foul call.

A clearer picture is beginning to emerge around Detroit Pistons star Cade Cunningham’s recovery timeline — and it may not be as devastating for the postseason as initially feared.

According to Kevin O’Connor of Yahoo Sports, historical comparisons suggest Cunningham’s collapsed lung could sideline him for much — if not all — of the regular season, while still leaving the door open for a playoff return.

Historical Data Offers Timeline Clues for Pistons Star’s Return

O’Connor pointed to several recent NBA cases involving similar injuries to project a potential recovery window.

Among them:

CJ McCollum (2023): missed 12 games over 3.5 weeks
CJ McCollum (2021): missed 18 games over six weeks
Terrence Jones (2015): missed six games over two weeks
Gerald Wallace (2009): missed seven games over three weeks

Across those examples, the average recovery time comes out to 10.8 games missed over roughly 3.6 weeks.

That timeline aligns closely with the current situation facing the Pistons.

Detroit has 14 games remaining in the regular season, with approximately one month until the playoffs begin — a window that could allow Cunningham to return in time for the postseason if his recovery follows a similar trajectory.

Regular Season Return in Doubt

GettyCade Cunningham of the Detroit Pistons reacts after colliding with Tre Johnson of the Washington Wizards.

While the broader outlook offers some optimism, the short-term reality is less encouraging.

Cunningham is now expected to miss at least several weeks after being diagnosed with a mild collapsed lung, according to ESPN’s Shams Charania.

Even on the optimistic end of historical comparisons, that timeline would likely keep him sidelined for most — if not all — of the remaining regular season.

That absence comes at a critical time for Detroit, which is attempting to secure the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference.

MVP, All-NBA Stakes Enter Conversation

Beyond the team impact, Cunningham’s absence could also carry significant individual consequences.

“Cade has played only 61 games. He may lose out on MVP and All-NBA eligibility if he doesn’t return sooner,” O’Connor wrote.

That total leaves Cunningham four games shy of the NBA’s 65-game threshold required for major awards such as MVP and All-NBA honors.

If he misses an extended stretch and is unable to return before the regular season ends, Cunningham could be ruled ineligible despite what has otherwise been a standout campaign.

Pistons Balancing Urgency and Long-Term Outlook

For Detroit, the situation presents a delicate balance.

The Pistons currently hold the top spot in the East but are facing increasing pressure from teams like the Boston Celtics and New York Knicks.

At the same time, the organization must weigh the importance of postseason health over short-term positioning.

Playoff Return Still in Play

The encouraging takeaway is that a return before or during the playoffs remains realistic.

Based on comparable cases, Cunningham could be back within a three- to four-week window, potentially aligning with the start of the postseason — or shortly thereafter.

That scenario would give Detroit a chance to enter the playoffs with its franchise cornerstone available, even if the regular-season finish becomes more uncertain.

Uncertainty Remains

Still, recovery timelines for this type of injury can vary, and treatment decisions in the coming days will play a major role in determining Cunningham’s exact path forward.

For now, the Pistons are left navigating a critical stretch without their leader while holding onto cautious optimism that he will return when it matters most.

Alder Almo is a sports journalist covering the NBA for Heavy.com. He has more than 20 years of experience in local and international media, including broadcast, print and digital. He previously covered the Knicks for Empire Sports Media and the NBA for Off the Glass. Alder is from the Philippines and is now based in Jersey City, New Jersey. More about Alder Almo

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