Luka Dončić has been lingering around the edges of the NBA’s MVP conversation all year long. But he was never really seen as a serious contender for basketball’s most prestigious individual award. Instead, for the majority of this season it was seen as a two-man race between Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokić—just like last year. A few stars had moments in the sun, such as the Celtics’ Jaylen Brown or the Pistons’ Cade Cunningham, but their candidacies lost steam for different reasons. By the time March came about, a second straight MVP win for Gilgeous-Alexander seemed all but inevitable.
That has officially changed. Dončić has been on a tear this month and his latest stretch of absolutely ludicrous performances forces his name to the forefront of any conversations surrounding who the best player in basketball is. What’s more, it makes him the favorite to win the 2025–26 MVP award.
But before we get into Dončić’s case specifically, it’s a helpful reminder that every modern MVP candidate must check three boxes: they must showcase statistical dominance over the course of the whole season, their team must win a lot of games and there must be a positive “narrative” push around their candidacy. These are non-negotiable characteristics of every MVP for the last decade-plus. The only literal rule is the minimum 65-games played requirement by the NBA, but the above characteristics exist in the unwritten realm as must-haves. It’s not a scientific formula but it’s as close as we’ll get for an award voted on by 100 different media members.
For much of this season Dončić wasn’t seen as a favorite because he couldn’t claim to check all those boxes. His numbers were consistently great, to be sure. But his team suffered several stretches of bizarrely poor play seemingly exacerbated by Dončić’s flaws and the narrative discussion was largely centered around those struggles rather than his individual greatness. Thus, in most MVP ladders, the Los Angeles star rarely ranked above the No. 3 spot, only rising due to missed time from Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokić. With both healthy entering the stretch run of the season it appeared too tall a task for Dončić to unseat either, much less surpass both in the race for the award.
But it happened. Dončić has done just that. And it’s all thanks to this absolutely torrid stretch of basketball that has rocketed the Lakers up the West standings and inspired sincere belief in the purple and gold as championship contenders.
In the month of March Dončić leads the NBA with 37.2 points per game while adding 8.8 rebounds and 7.5 assists per game; that brings his season statline up to 33.4 points, 7.9 rebounds and 8.4 assists per contest. The Lakers have gone 10–1 and are winners of eight straight. Dončić put an exclamation mark on all that with an absolute virtuoso of a performance on Thursday night against the Heat, dropping a whopping 60 points and becoming the 8th player in NBA history to hit that mark on 30 or fewer shot attempts.
This run has showcased everything great about Dončić’s game. An impossible-to-defend step-back jumpshot. Elite handles. Other-worldly vision. Above all, truly obscene levels of shot-making. He is in complete command of the court right now and there is absolutely nothing defenses can do to stop him. The rest of the basketball world cannot help but marvel at his greatness, at how helpless he makes every opponent look and how pivotal Dončić has been to driving the Lakers to victory.
What does that add up to? Stats, wins, and narrative. Check, check and check.
Dončić’s case is further buoyed by the reality that, while he has been playing exceptionally well over the last few weeks, the actual numbers aren’t that far off from his season stats. He’s been the best scorer in the NBA throughout the year, currently leading all players in points scored. Dončić ranks fourth in the NBA with eight triple-doubles and seventh in double-doubles with 33 such statlines. He is, as he always has been, an ethereal offensive force. As a nice cherry on top of the sundae Dončić’s defense has visibly improved during this same stretch, allowing L.A. to put up some of its best performances on that end.
That’s just been overlooked at times this year with the Lakers going through more rough stretches than usual for a team with this level of talent. And coach JJ Redick’s sarcastic theory that Dončić’s fondness for constantly talking to the referees hurts his MVP candidacy may not actually be that far off base. As Bam Adebayo’s 83-point game proved, how a player goes about their business is perpetually linked to their output. The perception of Dončić in that regard has been poor for much of this year.
But at a certain point, greatness supersedes criticism. That’s what Dončić’s recent stretch accomplished. Even if he doesn’t keep this up over the Lakers’ final 12 games his MVP candidacy has gotten a huge momentum boost leading right into voting season.
Further aiding his cause? The undeniable fact that his competitors haven’t done much to stake their claims. Gilgeous-Alexander has been great since returning from an abdominal injury earlier in the month but has clearly been pacing himself in certain games with an eye on the playoffs. Jokić’s signature efficiency hasn’t been there and his Nuggets have struggled to find their footing as a title contender; as a three-time award winner there’s also voter fatigue involved in his case too. No other upstart candidate has made a serious late-season push like Dončić.
It’s all coming up aces for the Lakers’ superstar in this realm. Dončić is showcasing absurd dominance, his team is winning and everyone is in awe of his powers. He deserves to be seen as the favorite for the rest of the year and, if he maintains anything close to his current level of production, should win his first MVP award.
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