Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis may not look like a prototypical warrior in the mold of a U.S. Navy Seal or Delta Force team member – or Greece’s Special Paratrooper Detachment (ETA), the Z Mak Amphibious Raider Squadron, or the Navy’s Underwater Demolitions Command, but he has the country ready for war.
The likelihood of that happening is minimal – Greece’s defense is essentially geared toward any potential conflict with Turkey and the two sides have been talking diplomatically, if slowly, but there’s no ‘gunboat diplomacy’ for now.
On Mitsotakis’ watch, he has ratcheted down tension with Turkey, no easy task when dealing with the volatile Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has gone from threatening to invade Greece to trying negotiations over differences.
But he has followed former President Teddy Roosevelt’s maxim to “speak softly and carry a big stick” – Roosevelt was Vice-President at the time in 1901 when he uttered the famous line at the Minnesota State Fair.
That’s a good idea when it’s Erdogan on the other side of the table because he has shown he’s liable to flip a switch to becoming bellicose again, and now the U.S-Israel war with Iran could throw a monkey wrench into the works.
Mitsotakis has shown himself to be a good man in a storm – more over foreign policy than contentious domestic issues – and he didn’t take any of the bait thrown out by Erdogan and hard-line Turkish politicians eager for a scrap.
Greece – which has a defense budget of about 6.1 billion euros ($7.03 billion) or about 3 percent of its Gross Domestic Product – is ramping that up with a 25 billion euro ($28.81 billion) 12-year defense modernization plan through 2036.
That ranks Greece fourth among the 32 countries in NATO, behind only Norway, Denmark, and the U.S., keeping the country in favor with U.S. President Donald Trump, who has chided other members for not spending enough.
The U.S and Greece also have a military defense agreement, a partnership that has deepened defense ties and increased an American military presence in Greece, providing a bulwark against aggression, although it would be problematic if Greece and Turkey got into a conflict as the U.S. also wants to keep relations with Turkey, also a member of the defense alliance.
The Greek plan focuses on high-tech warfare, including A.I.-powered systems, drones, and a new Achilles Shield anti-aircraft and anti-drone dome, mostly to update forces to state of the art and keep a balance of power with Turkey.
Greece had to be tight with money and defense spending during the 2010-18 economic and austerity crisis but under Mitsotakis has bought French Rafale fighter jets and French and American warships, is upgrading its F-16 fighter jet fleet, and will be purchasing more advanced F-35 fighter jets – there is an initial order of 20 and an option to get 20 more.
Drones – Turkey is among world leaders for cost-effective and highly effectual combat drones such as the Bayraktar TB2, which Azerbaijan used to destroy Armenia’s strong ground-based air defense in a short war.
While Iran stands no chance against the combined might of the U.S. and Israel, it has effectively used the low-cost Shahed 129 suicide drones to take out targets in the Mideast, including six American soldiers at a civilian port in Kuwait – another died after being wounded in an attack on a Saudi Arabian air base.
Greece could be drawn into the war against Iran as the U.S. wants NATO allies to help open the Strait of Hormuz, where about 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas passes through in tankers, although there haven’t been any takers yet.
This month some 50 Greek-linked vessels have been in the area of the Persian Gulf and Greece would be under pressure to protect them, although government spokesman Pavlos Marinakis said there are no plans to do so.
That’s despite several Greek-owned ships – including those under the flags of Malta and Liberia to avoid paying taxes in Greece – being attacked in the strait, but no response, and allies of the U.S. declining to provide protection. Marinakis said that Greece “has no intention of becoming involved in war.”
Mitsotakis has made Greece ready for almost any contingency – although no one until recently could have foreseen the U.S. would attack Iran, despite some warning signs and critics contending Israel persuaded the U.S. into the war.
The European Union, of which Greece is a member, has relied on its failed concept of ‘soft power’, which favors persuasion and promoting democracy and human rights instead of military force and now is scrambling to build up its defense.
That won’t happen until 2030 at the soonest, leaving the EU vulnerable instead of following the lead of Greece and Mitsotakis to be battle ready instead of being left with only harsh language against an enemy – you don’t think Russia is watching and mulling a move against NATO as in Tom Clancy’s thriller Red Storm Rising?
That began over a sabotage of the then Soviet Union’s – it was set in the 1980s – main oil refinery, and it’s oil again that could be the catalyst for the war in Iran escalating unless the U.S. declares victory and mission improbable accomplished.
While the EU quivers and hopes to have a defense against war in the next decade, Greece is ready.