A study of German national team rowers found a high correlation between 2000m speed on the erg and one-rep maxes on bench pulls and dead lifts – but not so much to squats.
More specifically, athletes who had high one-rep maxes on bench pulls and dead lifts tended to perform well for the duration of a 2k, while strong squats correlated to a fast first 500m but less so to a full 2k.
Interestingly, however, doing squats at lower loads, in the 30-50% of max range, did correspond somewhat better to a fast 2k score – so it might be that doing lighter weight, circuit-style squats are a good predictor for 2k times.
The researchers used a linear velocity transducer to measure the speed of contraction, controlled for elements like squat depth, and tested both male and female athletes.
Taken together, the researchers suggest that athletes who excel at exercises that involve high-velocity specific contractions will score best on a 2000m test.
There is a lot of good rowing wonk material in the study, including consideration of how each exercise corresponds to different parts of the stroke and drive sequence, knee joint angles, pacing during the race, and more.
Read more at Individual load–velocity measures are associated with 2,000-m rowing ergometer performance in German national rowers.