Caution was the watchword from Truist Securities analyst Barry Jonas, as he reviewed Bally’s Corp. in a March 26 investor note. He maintained a Hold rating on the stock, lowering his price target to $13 per share from $18 apiece.
Bally’s shares were trading at $11.31 apiece at the time of Jonas’s report.
Noting that Bally’s casino division had missed its cash-flow target for the fourth quarter of 2025, Jonas added that digital results were in line with expectations. He explained his pullback on the stock by citing limited Bally’s liquidity, elevated levels of corporate debt, and unspecified international risks.
Jonas observed that $2 billion Bally’s Chicago was continuing to progress and that the MLB’s Athletics were working on their half of a stadium-cum-resort development in Las Vegas on the former site of the Tropicana. Bally’s management was said to be ironing out financing for $4 billion Bally’s Bronx.
Elaborating on the quarterly results, Jonas wrote that the Casinos & Resorts division of Bally’s had come in as much as seven percent below forecasts, with $85 million in cash flow. Online cash flow was $1 million, however, where Wall Street (but not Jonas) had expected nothing.
The analyst allowed that the recently concluded sale of non-North American operations to Intralot skewed fourth-quarter results. These included business-to-business cash flow of $17 million and business-to-consumer of $92 million.
Despite the cash-flow miss, the Casinos & Resorts division saw a revenue jump of 13 percent to $366 million, and an eight percent boost to cash flow. Jonas credited the addition of newly acquired and built casinos with the lift, although Bally’s-branded casinos in Shreveport, Evansville, and Dover were said to be adversely affected by new competitors.
New casino Bally’s Baton Rouge was reported to be an especially strong performer, as was Bally’s Lincoln in Rhode Island. Management told Jonas that casinos in “stable competitive environments” were showing year-over-year potency.
“Overall, trends have been consistent with the high end still strong, but the low end soft, while the mid-range segment has been picking up,” Jonas chronicled. He said October and November results were solid, but that December was dampened by adverse weather.
The negative weather trend continued through January into February, but all other trends were reported to be stable. Jonas added, “Management has not seen a clear tailwind yet form OBBB-related tax refunds, while they are monitoring for any impact from the war in Iran and elevated oil prices.”
Getting back to Bally’s Chicago, Jonas said management wanted “some form of opening” this year, despite legislation to extend the license of its temporary Medinah Temple casino into 2027. Bally’s stated intent was to operate both Chicago casinos through most of 2027.
At the same time, the city of Chicago is moving ahead with adding slot routes, which could compete with Bally’s, although implementation is taking longer than initially forecast. Potential operator Accel Entertainment is modeling its first Windy City revenues for late 2026 or very early 2027.
“It appeared the city was going to include opt-in/opt-out language by ward, though our current understanding is the city is eschewing that approach though likely will still implement some sort of zoning regulations (i.e., no machines near schools, churches, and potentially the Bally’s permanent facility),” Jonas reported. He said that while the slot-route experience would not compare to the full casino one offered by Bally’s, “we imagine there would be some impact to the project.”
In Las Vegas, Bally’s management said it would “support” the opening of the 2028 Major League Baseball season, without offering specifics. Noting Bally’s debt load ($4.9 billion) and backlog of deals, Jonas opined that Bally’s “is still looking to take a more asset-light approach with partners on the retail and entertainment side.”
The Bally’s Bronx license fee of $500 million has been paid. Company management told Jonas “there is sizable interest amongst potential financing partners.”
North American online revenues leapt 55 percent to $62 million. Jonas said this reflected strong igaming growth, as well as momentum in online sports betting, and that “other strategic intiatives” set the company up for long-term digital success.