The year 2026, economically at least, is starting on an optimistic note for Greece, with Finance Minister Kyriakos Pierrakakis heading the Eurogroup, an informal convocation of finance ministers from the Eurozone.
His election to the post in December represented “the country’s transition from the years of bailouts and austerity to a position of credibility and influence”, Nick Malkoutzis, editor of economic analysis website MacroPolis, told BIRN.
The EU, the IMF and the Greek government all predict that Greece’s GDP will grow by an average of 2 per cent in 2026. This growth outlook “is credible, but far from guaranteed”, Malkoutzis cautioned.
The positive projections, he explained, rely on EU funds, tourism, and the absence of major external shocks. Growth could weaken if EU support fades, or external shocks emerge.
“So, the projections are reasonable conditional scenarios. They promise gains for households and businesses if investment stays strong, but the benefits are fragile – easily shaken by external turbulence or the premature fading of EU‐funded support,” Malkoutzis stressed.
Despite its improved fundamentals, Greece remains exposed to external shocks due to a current account deficit, its reliance on tourism and foreign capital, and the winding-down of EU recovery funds.
“The progress made since the crisis years is real … but a deeply negative net international investment position and persistent external imbalances mean that any reversal of capital flows, or downturn in tourism, would hit hard. The [EU] Recovery and Resilience Facility has provided a crucial cushion, but with its support winding down in 2026, the question is whether Greece can attract enough new investment to fill the gap,” Malkoutzis said.