Is It Time To Revisit Cadeler (OB:CADLR) After Recent Share Price Weakness
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If you are wondering whether Cadeler is priced attractively or not, the starting point is to look past the headlines and focus on what the valuation is really saying.
Cadeler last closed at 54.0, with returns of 4.2% decline over 7 days, 12.2% decline over 30 days, 12.3% year to date, 0.2% decline over 1 year, 27.1% over 3 years and 50.6% over 5 years, so the share price has moved around over different time frames.
These mixed returns sit against a backdrop of ongoing news coverage around offshore wind demand, project timelines and financing conditions that can affect sentiment toward installation and service providers like Cadeler. Investors are paying close attention to how contract visibility, project execution and sector headlines might be feeding into recent price moves.
On Simply Wall St’s framework, Cadeler currently has a valuation score of 6 out of 6. The rest of this article will walk through the key valuation approaches behind that score and then finish with a broader way to think about what the numbers really mean for you.
A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a company could be worth by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to today’s value. For Cadeler, this uses a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach in €.
The latest twelve month free cash flow is a loss of €824.1 million, so the model is relying heavily on future improvement in free cash flow. Analyst estimates and subsequent extrapolations point to free cash flow reaching €600.5 million in 2035, with interim projections such as €62.9 million in 2026, €365.6 million in 2027 and €412.2 million in 2028. Simply Wall St extends analyst inputs beyond year five using its own cash flow projections.
Bringing all of those projected cash flows back to today gives an estimated intrinsic value of €184.98 per share. Against the last closing price of NOK 54.0, this implies the stock is 70.8% undervalued based on this model alone. The DCF output indicates a sizeable valuation gap for investors to weigh against the business risks.
For companies that are generating earnings, the P/E ratio is a straightforward way to see how much you are paying for each unit of profit. It helps you compare what the market is currently willing to pay for Cadeler’s earnings against other options.
What counts as a “normal” or “fair” P/E depends on how quickly earnings are expected to grow and how risky those earnings are. Higher expected growth or lower perceived risk can justify a higher P/E, while lower growth or higher risk usually points to a lower P/E.
Cadeler’s current P/E is 6.03x, which sits below the Construction industry average of 14.30x and below the peer average of 16.52x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Cadeler is 21.04x. This is its own view of what a suitable P/E might be after accounting for factors such as earnings growth, profit margins, industry, market cap and company specific risks.
The Fair Ratio can be more useful than a simple peer or industry comparison because it adjusts for those company specific drivers rather than assuming every business should trade on the same multiple. With a Fair Ratio of 21.04x versus the current 6.03x, Cadeler screens as trading below this fair value anchor on an earnings basis.
Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Narratives let you attach a clear story about Cadeler to the numbers by tying your view on its future revenue, earnings and margins to a financial forecast and a fair value. All of this happens within Simply Wall St’s Community page, where tools used by millions of investors show how that fair value compares with today’s share price and then update automatically as new news or earnings arrive. One investor might build a Cadeler Narrative around a higher fair value such as NOK81.16 with earnings of €382.0 million and a P/E of 8.8x in 2029, while another might anchor on a lower fair value such as NOK45.07 with earnings of €367.1 million and a P/E of 5.1x in 2028. This gives you a clear, side by side sense of how different stories about the same company translate into different views on whether the current price looks high or low for your own decision making.
For Cadeler however we’ll make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Cadeler Narratives:
🐂 Cadeler Bull Case
Fair value in this bullish narrative: NOK95.36 per share.
Implied discount to this fair value: 43.4% undervalued compared to the last close of NOK54.00.
Revenue growth used in this narrative: 30% a year.
Backed by structural offshore wind growth, a larger installation fleet and a sizeable contract backlog in the billions of euros.
Builds in strong revenue growth and healthy profit margins while still recognising the capital intensive nature of the business.
Flags higher leverage and post merger execution as key things to watch, along with how management updates revenue guidance against the order book.
🐻 Cadeler Bear Case
Fair value in this bearish narrative: NOK45.07 per share.
Implied premium to this fair value: 19.8% overvalued compared to the last close of NOK54.00.
Revenue growth used in this narrative: 29.4% a year.
Focuses on a softer 2027 to 2028 period where project timing and auction delays could leave vessels underutilised.
Assumes earnings grow but that the market assigns a low P/E multiple, closer to traditional rig operators, despite higher growth.
Highlights reliance on a concentrated backlog, heavy capital spending and potential margin pressure if competition and contract terms tighten.
If you want to see how other investors are joining the dots between these stories and the valuation work above, it is worth reading the full set of community narratives and stress testing which assumptions feel closest to your own view of Cadeler.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include CADLR.OL.
