Warriors’ Chances of Securing Top-4 Pick in Loaded 2026 NBA Draft Revealed

The Golden State Warriors’ ongoing 2025-26 season is proving change is needed — and inevitable. 

The franchise has mostly been stuck in mediocrity ever since winning the NBA championship four years ago. It is trying to figure out what direction to go based on the players on the roster.

It’s safe to say there are many things that need to be addressed.

To boil it down, there are two sides to this.

Either the Warriors go all-in trying to win another championship, or they prioritize youth and development to unearth a blueprint for the future. 

Both sides have their pluses and minuses, but then one has to consider the Stephen Curry piece to the puzzle. 

The 38-year-old Warriors star doesn’t have more than a small handful of years left. He doesn’t have a young and talented supporting cast, but he can’t wait around for the team to develop any, either. 

At this point, perhaps Golden State can only grab a piece for the future if the opportunity simply falls into its hands. That is possible.

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Golden State Warriors’ chances of landing a top four pick in 2026

This summer will be an interesting one for the Dubs, but also a potentially stressful one. 

With the face of the franchise set to turn 39 next year, no one knows how many “next years” the Warriors can sell Curry on before he grows tired and (look away now) wants to leave the team. 

Case in point: Curry wants to compete for a championship. If Golden State wants to keep him happy, it almost has to get aggressive shopping for some veteran stars this summer. Los Angeles Clippers star Kawhi Leonard is a rumored target.

As for the draft, it isn’t feasible for the Warriors to consider that their main point of attack in the offseason. Drafting players is extremely valuable, yes, but they’ll likely be more focused trying to grab pieces that can help them win now.

But that doesn’t entirely rule out the possibility of the Dubs landing a future superstar, especially if they luck into a top-of-the-line prospect.

According to The San Francisco Chronicle’s Danny Emerman, the Warriors have slim chances of securing a top four pick in the 2026 NBA Draft. 

“Curry remaining sidelined would all but guarantee a play-in exit, officially sending the Warriors to the lottery,” Emerman wrote. “They have the 11th-worst record in the league, which carries a 9.4% chance at a top-four draft pick.”

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What this could mean for Golden State

Of course, that may not mean much right now. But this is exactly why some fans would argue the Warriors shut down Curry for the remainder of the regular season and the play-in tournament. It would boost the team’s chances of a higher draft pick. 

Or “tanking,” as they like to call it.

However, the franchise has been clear about its approach with Curry and the end of this season.

The team has been upfront about wanting to make the most out of this season and firmly intends to return Curry to the lineup if and when he is able to. 

That’s exactly what reveals how the Warriors aim to draw up their plans for the immediate future; they want to win now and make moves that’ll allow them to win now. The draft is the secondary priority at this time.

It’ll take a lot of movement and judgment by the front office to make beneficial changes this summer. Golden State is an old but talented team. It feels far from contender status but so close at the same time. 

Perhaps next season is the final time Curry will enter a year as a hands-down top-1o NBA player. Who knows after that.

The Warriors understand that and know what needs to be done. Now it remains to be seen just how they do it. 

Adel Ahmad Adel is a writer with over five years of experience covering the NBA. His work has appeared on various media platforms, both national and local. More about Adel Ahmad