When was the last time we had this much talent at the top of the MVP ballot?
Reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder is up to prime Steph Curry-like 66.4 percent true shooting, without the benefit of playing next to elite scorers or playmakers. Victor Wembanyama of the San Antonio Spurs is stopping players from attacking the paint entirely, resulting in just 3.1 blocks per game, never mind his floor-spacing and rim-rolling excellence on offense. The Los Angeles Lakers’ Luka Dončić leads the league in scoring and is averaging 35.5 points, 7.9 rebounds and 7.6 assists per game since the All-Star break. As always, there is Nikola Jokić of the Denver Nuggets, regularly flirting with triple-doubles that are closer to 20-15-15 than 10-10-10.
While The Athletic’s resident awards watcher, Zach Harper, has Boston’s Jaylen Brown in fourth spot, it’s clear that the groundswell is building around these four candidates. To discuss their seasons, we checked in with the writers who have chronicled their seasons most closely: Joel Lorenzi (Thunder and, uhh, the Bulls), Jared Weiss (Spurs) and Dan Woike (Lakers) to weigh in on not only the MVP race, but also the players’ seasons in general and where their careers could go from here.
And remember: We’ve got two weeks left in the season. Opinions can still change.
1. If you had to vote for MVP right now, how would you rank the top four candidates, assuming they all hit the 65-game threshold?
Lorenzi: 1. Gilgeous-Alexander; 2. Wembanyama; 3. Dončić; 4. Jokić
I figured the overwhelming feeling that Shai was running away with it in early March wouldn’t last. It takes just a couple nights for us to forget. But from October to now, I still think he has the most consistent body of work, especially considering that the unpredictability of this season has threatened to wreck the Thunder. Jalen Williams has virtually been a non-factor all season, and the team’s injuries piled up. SGA still keeps their floor incredibly high, seizes late-game moments as well as anyone on this list, and gives you historically great consistency, even if he’s not the most explosive offensive player of this bunch. The efficiency remains baffling. So long as Oklahoma City wins the West, I think he should run the poll.
That said, Wembanyama makes things interesting. He’s clearly shown he’s already one of the most impactful defenders ever. I’m not kicking Dončić to the curb. He’s good for these late pushes, and he’s made the Lakers a serious threat. I imagine Jokić ends up on the podium, though some combination of the standard he’s previously set, Denver’s slippage among these teams and other strong cases have contributed to his place here.
Weiss: 1. Gilgeous-Alexander; 2. Wembanyama; 3. Jokić; 4. Dončić
I just had this debate with Wemby in Miami, but I still feel that SGA’s impact over the entire season merits him the award at this moment. Wembanyama has been the MVP of the league for the past two months, but his rapid ascension this season almost works against him for this award. The gap between them is so small with the way Wembanyama has been a terror on both ends lately that I could see this answer changing by the time the season ends. It’s just hard to quantify the gap Wembanyama has defensively over the competition, but it’s significant enough to leap to second in the MVP race even if Dončić and Jokić have been dominant offensively.
Jokić needs little explanation; even his slow moments this season don’t mitigate the remarkable level of control and effectiveness he is exerting on the game. Getting to fourth, this was between Luka and Jaylen Brown for me. Luka has just edged him out because of the absurdity of his offensive output, though the narrative and two-way play behind Brown’s season should put him in this conversation. But with Dončić’s scoring tear lately, the gap between first and fourth in this ranking is as small as we’ve seen in years.
Woike: 1. Gilgeous-Alexander; 2. Dončić; 3. Wembanyama; 4. Jokić
Dončić feels very much in the race over the last two-plus months and has reached heights over the last 21 days that players in this league never see. In a league in which coaches talk about their best offensive players as “engines,” Dončić has been mowing through and past defenders like he’s half a Porsche, half an armored tank. The Lakers have really found something over the past month and they’re going to be a scary playoff opponent.
But Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder are Jason Voorhees. He’s so consistent, so solid, so efficient. Wembanyama is going to win MVPs in this league but, to me, he just feels a tick behind. And while Jokić is Jokić, he’s had better years. It’s an incredibly tight race, and you could cast your vote four different ways at the top and I wouldn’t be outraged.
2. Forget about the supporting casts — if you could have only one of the four players to start this year’s playoffs, with the goal of winning the title, who would you choose?
Lorenzi: I don’t anticipate this being a popular answer, but give me SGA. He’s not the highest-volume scorer on this list, or the best playmaker, or the best defender, but he is good enough at all of them that I’d take him. He leaves so few holes, has improved as a playmaker and processor, and is about as good of a defender as you can reasonably ask for from a high-functioning engine. He’s reliable, the least turnover-prone here by a mile, and such a smooth conductor of offense inside so many defensively slanted lineups.
I am close to blindly choosing Wembanyama without ever seeing him play in the postseason, though. He’s just gonna be such an issue for half-court offenses to score on, not to mention what he already brings on offense.
Weiss: Even if the award isn’t going his way now, Jokić is still the most impactful player in the game at the biggest stage. Especially with the conceit of designing a team, he allows you to build an offensive system that has generally proven to be playoff-proof when healthy. With the way Wembanyama has been playing since the start of the new year, he is probably the most impactful player in the game during the regular season, but we have to see how he handles the playoffs before we move him ahead of a prime Jokić or Gilgeous-Alexander, who have proven to be all-time greats in the postseason. This answer may look silly a few months from now, but we’ve seen young emerging stars struggle to handle the intensity and precision of their first postseason plenty of times.
Woike: Love Joel, love Jared — but they’re not playing along with the question enough. Of the four candidates, Dončić’s one-man offense is equaled by only one thing — Wembanyama’s one-man defense. If I had four randoms out there, give me the 7-foot-11 guy who plays defense like he’s got eight arms.
While Dončić’s ability to get the toughest buckets is unmatched in the NBA, the way offensive players freak out when they sense Wembanyama lurking would be the skill I’d most want to build around.
3. What was the game, moment or play that best describes the season the star you cover is having?
Lorenzi: That four-game stretch from March 4 to March 12. SGA had go-ahead buckets late in all of those games, with three of those wins against legitimate threats. All stellar, picturesque performances from SGA at a time when MVP voters are heavily influenced.
That Denver game might be his best regular-season game to date: 35 points, 15 assists, nine rebounds, zero turnovers, 14-of-21 shooting and back-to-back go-ahead shots. It was a late-game masterclass and a case study on efficiency. Aaron Gordon’s return, coupled with Williams and Isaiah Hartenstein’s absences, left the Thunder in trouble. But Gilgeous-Alexander seized the game, and maybe the MVP race, in one fell swoop.
Weiss: There are so many for Wembanyama, but the one I’ll never forget was when he was covering his face to hold back tears after beating the Clippers a few weeks back. Seeing the level of passion from him over winning a difficult regular-season game while he was pushing his body to its evolving limits showed how he is bringing a different type of mentality that has challenged perceptions of the league’s culture. He does so many things every night that appear novel, but it was the refreshing vulnerability he showed in that win, and how much he cares about competing, that has defined him.
Woike: Fans don’t want to hear this stuff about scheduling and fatigue because getting into a nine-star hotel just before sunrise is only so much of a burden. But Dončić’s 60-point game in Miami, coming less than 24 hours after he led the Lakers to a win against the Rockets in Houston, was next-level mastery. Yeah, the shot was pure. But the subtler story was Dončić seeing the payoff for the commitment he made to be in better shape this offseason — the reward being that he’s playing the best basketball of his season here in the final few weeks.
4. At 31, Jokić is the oldest of the four players. Do you think he has fallen off from his peak, and how much longer would you bet on him being an MVP candidate?
Lorenzi: Fallen off his peak? Not even close. If he loses favor in future MVP races, it will be because of voter fatigue — the intangible, arbitrary quality of human nature that catches all the greats. He’s produced at an all-time level for so long that it might just lessen his chances.
But the guy is a top-15 player of all time, and still inarguably a top-four player in the NBA. His candidacy is perennial, and probably would’ve held up this season without the urgency of the 65-game rule rushing him back. I don’t even expect him to really drop out of the top five in the next few years. Winning it, though, is different. The young bulls seem like they’re on the way.
Weiss: The last player to win MVP over the age of 30 was Steve Nash, who was 31 in the ‘05-’06 season. Jokić’s game lends well to him retaining his impact as he gets older, considering he relies on balance, touch and vision above all else. He should remain in the MVP race for a while. But Wembanyama’s ascension this season makes it hard to imagine another player winning MVP while Jokić is still in his prime, barring health issues.
Woike: Will Jokić ever be as good as he was two years ago? Probably not. But the ways that he makes everyone around him better while still being an impossible one-on-one cover means that he’s going to stay in that lead pack for MVP for at least the next few years.
5. Who will go into next season as the odds-on favorite to win MVP, and who will be considered the best player in the NBA heading into the 2027 playoffs?
Lorenzi: I’m not a betting man, but I’d imagine either Wembanyama or Dončić will get offseason MVP love — especially if Gilgeous-Alexander wins his second this year. The love for multi-time winners eventually wanes.
As far as best … Wembanyama already feels like a top-three player without stepping foot in the playoffs. I imagine how he fares in the postseason might alter that perception — for better or worse. But while growth isn’t linear, it seems natural that the ferocious, passionate 22-year-old who is already this good despite his current offensive limitations is bound to be much better by next year. Much better would make him the best.
Weiss: Do we really need to dissect why Wembanyama is the obvious answer? (Editor’s note: Yes.) His improvement over the course of this season has been astounding, going from a mistake-prone player without well-established scoring spots on the floor to a world-beater almost every night. He controls both ends, with his gravity as a roller on offense and his antigravity as a defender warping opponents. Nobody has been able to consistently best him over the course of a game since he got healthy in January. With the rate at which he has improved this season, expect that to continue next year.
Right now, he is probably the best player in the league anyway, even with his offensive game needing more layers of skill and consistency to catch up to Jokić, Dončić and Gilgeous-Alexander.
Woike: Sometime last season with the Lakers in San Antonio, I asked a veteran player if he’d view Wembanyama’s career a disappointment if he finished with fewer than three MVP awards. After laughing at the ridiculousness of the question, the player said it would be, in some ways, disappointing because it would mean that something got in the way of Wembanyama reaching his potential.
The way I see it — if the Spurs win the title this year, it’ll be because of him. If they don’t, they’ll enter next season with a motivated superstar who is only getting better. He’d be my pick today.