If the playoffs started today, we’d be confused as to why the final two weeks of the season and Play-In Tournament were scrapped. Because the playoffs are supposed to begin April 18 with all of the pomp and circumstance and lead-up we’ve grown accustomed to. We’d also be worried that another pandemic is affecting the NBA schedule, and we certainly don’t want that to happen.
But if we’re looking at the current playoff matchups as of today, there are some pretty interesting series across the board that we’d really like to see happen in the regularly scheduled postseason.
Let’s look at each of those potential matchups as of today’s (March 31) standings: how those teams look against each other, how their potential strengths can be avoided and weaknesses can be exploited. Does the season series tell us anything? Which team would you trust to win that series?
For determining the No. 7 and No. 8 seeds, we’ll use Basketball-Reference’s playoff odds. Or, depending on how teams are trending, I might call a wild card into the mix and decide to move them through this imaginary, yet abandoned Play-In.
Eastern Conference
No. 1 Detroit Pistons vs. No. 8 Charlotte Hornets
Why the Hornets at No. 8? They’re playing the best out of the teams in eighth (Orlando), ninth (Miami) and 10th (Charlotte). They’re also the most fun team of the three. And the Basketball-Reference predictor gives them a 2.8 percent chance of winning the conference!
What’s the concern for the Pistons? There just isn’t much secondary offense. They’ve been surviving just fine without Cade Cunningham as he heals from a collapsed lung. But the playoffs will be a different level. Even Cunningham at full health means the Pistons don’t have multiple creators. Keeping up with Charlotte’s outside shooting would be a bit of a math problem.
What’s the concern for the Hornets? Lack of experience and dealing with the Pistons’ physicality. The Hornets don’t have guys who shy away from contact or the moment. However, Detroit’s physicality is on an entirely different level. That might break them a little, and that’s where the lack of experience would rear its ugly head.
How did their season series go? The Pistons are up 2-0 with one game left. Detroit blew out the Hornets in December as the turnaround was beginning. They beat Charlotte by six in the second game, with Cunningham going for 33. They have one last meeting on April 10.
What would be the pick? Pistons in six. Without knowing that Cunningham will be 100 percent, Charlotte can put some pressure on them.
No. 2 Boston Celtics vs. No. 7 Philadelphia 76ers
Why the 76ers at No. 7? They’re healthy and available at the right time. They should be able to beat any of the teams in the Play-In.
What’s the concern for the Celtics? The rebounding isn’t actually fixed, and the Celtics aren’t healthy enough to make up for it. Against someone like Joel Embiid (if healthy), the interior of the Celtics could be exposed. Nikola Vučević and Neemias Queta should be able to battle, but the Celtics’ seemingly fixed defensive rebounding could suffer. Possessions getting extended and any potential inconsistency from Jayson Tatum as he comes back from the injury could be detrimental.
What’s the concern for the 76ers? This team is never fully healthy and always finds a way to fall apart in the big moments. Trusting Embiid, Paul George and even Tyrese Maxey to be and remain fully healthy is irrational. It’s the same story with the Sixers going into every single postseason series. You start playing the “what if” game and get too many “what if” scenarios to take this seriously.
How did their season series go? The series is tied 2-2. Three of the games happened in the first month of the season. The fourth game happened without George, Embiid or Tatum.
What would be the pick? Celtics in five. The Sixers get a game, but Boston should roll in this series.
No. 3 New York Knicks vs. No. 6 Atlanta Hawks
What’s the concern for the Knicks? We still haven’t seen this team fully click, and it’s going to need that, even in the first round. Everybody assumes the Knicks are just waiting for the playoffs, but flipping a switch when you don’t have championship experience is a tall task. Jalen Brunson going up against perimeter defenders like Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker could drain his energy. And Karl-Anthony Towns still hasn’t consistently found his groove in Mike Brown’s offense.
What’s the concern for the Hawks? They have guys who can score, but they don’t have a true go-to scorer. Jalen Johnson is capable of putting up big numbers across the board. Alexander-Walker might be the most improved player. CJ McCollum can put up shots. But when it’s crunch time, how do they match whatever Brunson is doing? And while their rebounding has been really good, are we sure the Hawks’ frontcourt can keep Mitchell Robinson off the boards for extending possessions?
How did their season series go? It’s 1-1 so far, with their final game happening on Monday. They last played each other in late December and early January, before the Trae Young trade, though he played only in the first game.
What would be the pick? Knicks in six. The Hawks are dangerous, but a lack of a go-to guy might hurt them.
No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 5 Toronto Raptors
What’s the concern for the Cavs? The perimeter defense of this team is going to get picked apart. Donovan Mitchell and James Harden are bad defensive players, and teams planning against them from game-to-game could get ugly. It puts even more pressure on these guys to deliver with shot making and creation on the other end. Their consistency in the postseason hasn’t been great. We also haven’t seen this team healthy much, and they have a bad history in the playoffs over the last three years. Will Evan Mobley or the role players be ready to step up and deliver?
What’s the concern for the Raptors? This is not a good or trustworthy offense, and even the Cavs’ defensive holes could be fine against what Toronto does on that end. Not being able to knock down outside shots to keep up with the Cavs’ backcourt would be terrible. If the defense can’t force turnovers, then they may not get enough easy points to go on extended runs.
How did their season series go? The Raptors went 3-0 against the Cavs, but all of those games happened before Thanksgiving. It’s irrelevant as a season series telling us anything.
What would be the pick? Cavs in six. Toronto isn’t reliable enough as an offense to disrupt Cleveland’s defense consistently.
Even with the Clippers’ Kawhi Leonard playing some of the best basketball of his career, the Thunder may be too good for anyone. Alonzo Adams / Imagn Images
Western Conference
No. 1 OKC Thunder vs. No. 8 LA Clippers
Why the Clippers as the eighth seed? They shouldn’t have to worry about Portland or Golden State. I’ll give Phoenix the slight edge in a Play-In matchup.
What’s the concern for the Thunder? That they have a conflicting appointment and can’t make the game, thus forfeiting? And this happens enough that they lose four times in the series? Obviously, the presence of Kawhi Leonard is intimidating, and Darius Garland is playing excellent basketball. The Thunder just have to make sure they hit the defensive boards, and they should be fine.
What’s the concern for the Clippers? The Thunder are on a mission of destruction. The Clippers thrive on forcing turnovers and turning those opportunities into quick, easy points. The Thunder are one of the best teams at taking care of the ball. The Clippers would be forced to be perfect in the half court.
How did their season series go? OKC is 2-0 against the Clippers with one game left on April 8. Both of those games happened before Christmas.
What would be the pick? Thunder in four. The Clippers have turned their season around, but this is a different level of opponent.
No. 2 San Antonio Spurs versus No. 7 Phoenix Suns
Why the Suns? The Suns should be at home for the Play-In, and a healthy enough team should secure the seventh seed.
What’s the concern for the Spurs? The lack of experience, and they do turn the ball over quite a bit. The Spurs also aren’t an elite 3-point shooting team. Maybe all of those things manifest themselves against a Suns team that can really shoot. And Phoenix is good at forcing turnovers for quick strikes. If the Spurs don’t know how to manage those tough moments, then maybe there’s a threat.
What’s the concern for the Suns? Victor Wembanyama can eat planets, and he’s figuring out how to destroy entire solar systems. There is no matching up with Wemby, and that cute little idea of putting Dillon Brooks on him to irritate Wemby wouldn’t work either. The Suns may not have the athlete to keep up with the Spurs in a playoff series.
How did their season series go? It’s tied 2-2. The Suns won the two games in November. The Spurs won the two games after the All-Star break.
What would be the pick? Spurs in five. Phoenix can steal a game at home, but the Spurs are too good now.
No. 3 Los Angeles Lakers versus No. 6 Houston Rockets
What’s the concern for the Lakers? The Lakers haven’t outright resolved any concern with their team defense. It’s looked solid-to-good recently, but those are random regular-season games. If they can’t find that chemistry on defense in the playoffs, then that could cure a lot of what ails the Rockets. Even without Steven Adams, the Lakers may struggle to battle the size of Houston. That could help Houston’s defense lock in.
What’s the concern for the Rockets? This team is a mess chemistry-wise, and it’s terrible in the clutch. The Rockets continue to struggle to score in tight games, and that’s not going to bode well going against Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves. The Rockets likely can’t keep up there, and their clutch defense has proven to have the same resistance as a swinging saloon door. This is proving to be a bad matchup for the Rockets across the board.
How did their season series go? The Lakers are 2-1 against Houston this season. The Rockets beat them on Christmas, but the Lakers won consecutive games in mid-March in Houston.
What would be the pick? Lakers in five. The Rockets haven’t shown enough resolve or chemistry to believe they can do this.
No. 4 Denver Nuggets versus No. 5 Minnesota Timberwolves
What’s the concern for the Nuggets? They haven’t really been healthy all season long, and they’re still battling injuries. Nikola Jokić hasn’t looked nearly as spry or healthy since coming back from his knee injury in the middle of the season. Aaron Gordon has been battling a hamstring issue for a year. This team isn’t maximizing its potential going into the playoffs, and that’s bad in a matchup against Minnesota.
What’s the concern for the Wolves? The Wolves beat the Nuggets in a playoff series two years ago, but that was with Karl-Anthony Towns showing extra size to combat Jokić. This time with Julius Randle there, the Wolves might not have enough height and length to slow him down. That, coupled with several good defenders available to try to wear down Anthony Edwards, takes the Wolves out of their rhythm. Not to mention, the Wolves turn it over a lot in the clutch. Can’t do that against Jokić.
How did their season series go? Denver is 3-1 against Minnesota this season. Two of the wins happened in the first three weeks. The Nuggets also beat the Wolves on Christmas. The Wolves won in early March with Gordon missing the game.
What would be the pick? Wolves in seven. If Denver can prove it’s healthy, that changes the series, but the Nuggets are vulnerable enough to get beaten by Minnesota again.